Term Limits and Their Consequences

List of Tables

1. Introduction

Why Study Term Limits?
How Term Limits Have Been Studied
The Early Debate
Early Scholarship
Methodological Weaknesses of Early Pre-Implementation Studies
Methods Used in Later Studies
This Book

2. Movement to Establish Term Limits

Difference between Mass Political Movements and Grassroots Democracy Movements
Essential Elements of Grassroots Democracy Movements
The Success of the Movement
Historical Stages of the Term Limit Movement
Conclusion

3. Why Were Term Limits So Popular

The American Tradition of Political Reform
Normative Perspectives of Support for Term Limits
Research on Why Voters Prefer Term Limits and Still Vote for Their Incumbent
Motivational Categories of Why Voters Prefer Term Limits
The optimistic Politics of Changing Rules

4. Impact of the Election of Women

Predicted Impact on the Election of Women to State Legislatures
Current Evidence form the States
The Potential Anticipatory Influence of Term Limits
Additional Evidence: Comparing Congress with State Legislatures
Case Study: California, the First State to Feel the Impact of Term Limits
Implications of the California Experience: Why Didn't Term Limits Matter
Other Factors Influence the Election of Women More Than Term Limits
Conclusion

5. Impact of the Election of the Minority Candidates

Research on Minorities and Term Limits
National Trends in the Election of Black and Hispanic Candidates to States Legislatures
Evidence from the California State Assembly, Michigan State house, Georgia House of Representatives, and Pennsylvania State House
Summarizing the Case Study States: Term Limits, Redistricting, and State Demographics

6. Consequences of Term Limit Enactment on Career Paths

Ambition Theory
Impact of Term Limits on Motivation
Career Paths for California's Term Limited Legislators: Other Impacts on Legislative Careers
Contrasting Career Paths
Michigan v. California
Discussion
Conclusion

7. Changes in Legislative Leadership

Consequences of Eliminating Entrenched Legislative Leaders
Pre-Term Limit California Speaker Pattern
Post-Term Limit Speakership Transition Pattern
California Senate Pattern
Unseating the Leader Even Without Term Limits
Georgia
Minorities in Leadership Positions
Women Obtaining Leadership Positions
Unanticipated Consequences
Weakened Leadership in Other Term-Limited States
Conclusions

8. Insider's Views of Term Limits

Why Interviews are Important
Views of Experience of a Former State Legislator
The Different Experience of a Post-Term Limits Legislator
Views of Two Legislative Staffers
Views of a Former Insider
What These Interviews Suggest

9. The Future of Term Limits in the States and on Congress

Term Limits and Future Turnover rates
Term Limits in the States
Expansion, Contraction, or the Status Quo?
Future Consequences
Term Limits and Congress
Conclusion

10. Conclusion

The Future of Term Limits
Final Thoughts