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Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
PART I The Retirement Income Target
Chapter 1 The Road to Retirement 3
Detours 6
Chapter 2 Doubts about the 70 Percent Retirement Income Target 9
Niggling Doubts 10
Saving for Retirement Is a Two-Dimensional Problem 14
The Macro Case Against 70 Percent 15
Low-Income Workers 16
Conclusions 16
Chapter 3 Homing in on the Real Target 19
Setting the Ground Rules 19
Howard and Barb 21
Steve and Ashley 1.0 23
Steve and Ashley 2.0 27
Expressing Consumption in Dollars 29
Conclusions 30
Chapter 4 A New Rule of Thumb 33
Guiding Principles 34
Retirement Income Targets under Different Scenarios 35
General Rule of Thumb 38
Conclusions 40
PART II The Wealth Target
Chapter 5 Quantifying Your Wealth Target 43
A Rough-and-Ready Estimate 43
A More Actuarial Approach 46
Chapter 6 Why Interest Rates Will Stay Low (And Why You Should Care) 53
The Rise of the Savers 54
The Japan Experience 57
Applicability to the United States and Canada 58
Possible Remedies 59
Implications 61
Chapter 7 How Spending Decreases with Age 65
Doubts 66
Quantifying the Decline in Consumption 68
Why Does Consumption Decline? 72
Next Steps 73
Chapter 8 Death Takes a Holiday 75
Present-Day Life Expectancy 77
Dispersion of Deaths 78
Who Is Benefiting the Most? 79
Why Is Mortality Improving? 80
The Future 82
Conclusions 85
Chapter 9 Estimating Your Own Life Expectancy 87
Conclusions 93
Chapter 10 Is Long-Term Care in Your Future? 95
Long-Term Care (LTC) 95
What Does LTC Entail? 96
What Are the Chances You Will Need LTC? 99
How Long Is LTC Usually Required? 101
Conclusions 102
Chapter 11 Paying for Long-Term Care 103
Typical LTC Insurance Contract 103
Does the Math Work? 105
The Verdict 108
The Consequences of Not Insuring LTC 112
Chapter 12 Putting It All Together 115
New Wealth Targets 120
Buffers 122
Conclusion 123
PART III The Accumulation Phase
Chapter 13 Picking a Savings Rate 127
Historical Performance 127
Lessons Learned 129
What the Future Holds 131
Generalizing the Results 133
Chapter 14 Optimizing Your Savings Strategy 137
The Goal 138
Strategy 1: Simple 138
Strategy 2: Simple Lifecycle Approach 139
Strategy 3: Modified Lifecycle 140
Strategy 4: Variable Contribution 141
Strategy 5: The SMART Approach 142
Conclusion 143
The Third Lever 144
Methodology 144
Chapter 15 A Gentler Approach to Saving 147
Path 1: Pain Now, Gain Later 148
Path 2: Smooth and Steady Improvement 150
A Comparison in Dollar Terms 153
Conclusions 154
PART IV The Decumulation Phase
Chapter 16 Rational Roulette 159
Call to Action 161
Watch Out for Your Children 163
Chapter 17 Revisiting the 4 Percent Rule 167
The 4 Percent Rule 167
Problems with the 4 Percent Rule 169
A More Rational Spending Rule 173
A Monte Carlo Simulation 176
Conclusions 177
Chapter 18 Why People Hate Annuities (But Should Still Buy One) 179
Why Annuities Should Be Popular 180
The Psychology Behind the Unpopularity 183
Tontines 184
The Insured Annuity Strategy 185
Indexed Annuities? Forget It 188
Conclusions 189
PART V Random Reflections
Chapter 19 How Workplace Pension Plans Fit In 195
Why Employers Offer Workplace Plans 196
Getting the Most out of Your Workplace Plan 198
How a Workplace Pension Plan Affects Your Dollar Target 202
Online Forecast Tools 203
Chapter 20 Bubble Trouble 205
Why Worry about Financial Bubbles? 206
Examples of Recent Financial Bubbles 207
Common Characteristics 211
The Everything Bubble 212
Chapter 21 Carpe Diem 215
The Numbers 217
Healthy Life Years 219
Trends 221
Personal Genome Testing 222
Chapter 22 A Life Well Lived 225
Retirement and Happiness 225
Final Thoughts 229
Appendix A Similarities between the United States and Canada 231
Social Security Programs 232
High-Level Comparison of Retirement Vehicles 235
A Tax Comparison 238
Appendix B Social Security in the United States and Canada 241
Name of Social Security Pension Plan 241
Purpose of Social Security 241
Earnings Base for Pension Calculation 242
How Pension Is Calculated 243
How the Plans Are Funded 243
Normal Retirement Age 244
Early Retirement Age 244
Delayed Retirement 245
Indexation 245
Other Government-Sponsored Pension Plans 245
Taxability 246
Appendix CRetirement Income Targets under Other Scenarios 249
Appendix D About the Assumptions Used in the Book 255
Thoughts on Conservatism 255
Assumptions Used to Estimate Personal Consumption 256
Assumptions Used to Calculate Future Retirement Savings 258
Assumptions Used to Estimate the Historical Accumulation of Savings 260
Couple Contemplating Long-Term Care Insurance 260
Assets Needed to Cover Long-Term Care (LTC) 262
About the Author 263
Index 265
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