Bigger than Chaos

Note to the Reader 1 The Simple Behavior of Complex Systems 1.1 Simplicityin Complex Systems 2 1.2 Enion Probability Analysis 12 1.3 Towards an Understanding of Enion Probabilities 27 2 The Physics of Complex Probability 2.1 Complex Probability Quantified 39 2.2 Microconstant Probability 47 2.3 The Interpretation of IC-Variable Distributions 70 2.4 Probabilistic Networks 73 2.5 Standard IC-Variables 81 2.6 Complex Probability and Probabilistic Laws 96 2.7 Effective and Critical IC-Values 101 2.A TheMethod ofArbitraryFunctions 118 2.B More on the Tossed Coin 122 2.C Proofs 127 3 The Independence of Complex Probabilities 3.1 Stochastic Independence and Selection Rules 140 3.2 Probabilities of Composite Events 141 3.3 Causal Independence 145 3.4 Microconstancy and Independence 150 3.5 The Probabilistic Patterns Explained 161 3.6 Causally Coupled Experiments 163 3.7 Chains of Linked IC-Values 178 3.A Conditional Probability 213 3.B Proofs 214 4 The Simple Behavior of Complex Systems Explained 4.1 Representing Complex Systems 250 4.2 Enion Probabilities and Their Experiments 251 4.3 The Structure of Microdynamics 253 4.4 Microconstancy and Independence of Enion Probabilities 263 4.5 Independence of Microdynamic Probabilities 275 4.6 Aggregation of Enion Probabilities 286 4.7 Grand Conditions for Simple Macrolevel Behavior 292 4.8 Statistical Physics 293 4.9 Population Ecology 319 5 Implications for the Philosophy of the Higher-Level Sciences 5.1 Reduction 333 5.2 Higher-Level Laws 339 5.3 Causal Relevance 346 5.4 The Social Sciences 351 5.5 The Mathematics of Complex Systems 355 5.6 Are There Simple Probabilities? 357 Notes Glossary References Index