Safety Analysis of Critical Infrastructure

This book deals with critical infrastructure safety analysis based on reliability modelling of multistate ageing system. It shows how changes of the operation process as well as climate-weather changes in the operating area of the critical infrastructure do influence the safety parameters of its assets. Building upon previous authors' research, the book formulates an integrated modeling approach where the multistate critical infrastructure safety model is combined with semi-Markov models for its operation process and for the climate-weather change process. This approach is shown to be successful in determining basic critical infrastructure safety, risk and resilience indicators, regardless of the number of assets and the number of their safety states. Besides the theory, the book reports on a successful application to the safety analysis of a real critical infrastructure, such as a port oil terminal. All in all, this book proposes a comprehensive and timely review of cutting-edge mathematical methods for safety identification, prediction and evaluation of critical infrastructures. It demonstrates that these methods can be applied in practice for analyzing safety of critical infrastructure under time-varying operation and climate-weather change processes.