The Ultimate Resource 2

Name: The Ultimate Resource 2
Brand: Princeton University Press
Price: 90.99 EUR
Availability: OnlineOnly

Julian Lincoln Simon(Autor*in)

Princeton University Press

1. Auflage

Erschienen am 30. Juni 2020

778 Seiten

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Inhalt

Cover Page
Half-title Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
Analytical Contents
Figures
Tables
Preface
Acknowledgments for the First Edition
Acknowledgments for the Second Edition
Introduction
Preview of the Book
Numbers, Writers, and Believability
The Role of Political Economy
The State of the Argument
A Historical Afternote
Part One: Toward Our Beautiful Resource Future
1. The Amazing Theory of Raw-Material Scarcity
Between Pig Copper and Dentistry
What Do We Mean by "Scarcity"?
What Is the Best Way to Forecast Scarcity and Costs?
Will the Future Break with the Past?
A Challenge to the Doomsdayers to Put Their Money Where Their Mouths Are
Summary
Afternote 1: The "True" Cost (Price) of Natural Resources
Afternote 2: The Ultimate Shortage
2. Why Are Material-Technical Resource Forecasts So Often Wrong?
The Nature of Material-Technical Forecasts: Explaining the Paradox
The Difficulties of Material-Technical Forecasting
The Vast Differences among Technical Forecasts
Summary
Afternote to Investors
3. Can the Supply of Natural Resources-Especially Energy-Really Be Infinite? Yes!
The Theory of Decreasing Natural-Resource Scarcity
Resources as Services
Are Natural Resources Finite?
Summary
Afternote 1: A Dialogue on "Finite
Afternote 2: The "Law" of Diminishing Returns
4. The Grand Theory
Entropy and Finiteness: The Irrelevant Dismal Theory
Conclusion
5. Famine 1995? or 2025? or 1975?
Famines
Conclusions
6. What Are the Limits on Food Production?
The Short-Run Outlook
The Long-Run Outlook
Food from Fish
Why Is the Food Outlook Made to Seem Gloomy?
Conclusions
Afternote: Monocropping
7. The Worldwide Food Situation Now: Shortage Crises,Glut Crises, and Government
Government Intervention
Cycling between Glut and Shortage
Food Stockpiles
What Next?
The US. Drought of 1976-1977
The Situation in Some Other Countries
Africa and the Cocoa-Producing Countries
What Would Be the Best Foreign Aid for Agriculture?
Conclusions
8. Are We Losing Ground?
The Trend of Arable Land: Losing Ground?
Is Land Different from Other Resources?
Conclusion
9. Two Bogeymen: "Urban Sprawl" and Soil Erosion
Soil Erosion
Afternote: How Environmental Con Artists Work Their Scams
10. Water, Wood, Wetlands-and What Next?
Nature of the Problem
Consumer Water Issues
Lumber
Wetlands
Conclusions
11. When Will We Run Out of Oil? Never!
Energy, the Master Resource
The Long-Run History of Energy Supplies
Jumping Off the Eiffel Tower
The Theory of Future Energy Supplies
The Bogeyman of Diminishing Returns Again
The Best-and Worst-Ways to Forecast Future Energy Availability
Better Technical Forecasting Methods
What about the Very Long Run?
The Nonfiniteness of Oil
Conclusions
12. Today's Energy Issues
First Some Facts
The Energy Crisis of the 1970s
Politics and the Current Energy "Crisis
Conclusions
Afternote 1: Externalities of Energy Use
Afternote 2: Energy Accounting
13. Nuclear Power: Tomorrow's Greatest Energy Opportunity
Nuclear Power, Danger, and Risk Aversion
Disposal of Nuclear Waste
Conclusions
14. A Dying Planet? How the Media Have Scared the Public
Summary
15. The Peculiar Theory of Pollution
The Economic Theory of Pollution
Conclusion
Afternote: Ecologists' Criticisms of Economics
16. Whither the History of Pollution?
Pollution and History
Life Expectancy and Pollution
Summary
17. Pollution Today: Specific Trends and Issues
Water Pollution
On the Politics of Environmental Hindering
Conclusion
18. Bad Environmental and Resource Scares
Known Killers
Possibly Dangerous Threats
Questionable Issues
Definitely Disproven Threats
Major Environmental Scares of the 1990s
Summary
Ajternote: Healing the Planet
19. Will Our Consumer Wastes Bury Us?
The Dimensions of Our Waste
The Theory of Waste and Value: Dump on Us, Baby, We Need It
Conclusion
20. Should We Conserve Resources for Others' Sakes? What Kinds of Resources Need Conservation?
Conservation of Replaceable Resources
Conservation of Animals or People?
Resources and Future Generations
Resources and 'International Rape
Summary
21. Coercive Recycling, Forced Conservation, and Free-Market Alternatives
Why Do People Worry So Much about Wastes?
Pros and Cons of Waste Disposal Policies
Price and Value
Conservation and the Government System
Conclusion
Part Two: Population Growth's Effect Upon Our Resources and Living Standard
22. Standing Room Only? The Demographic Facts
Population Growth Rates
The Approaching Victory against Premature Death
Summary
23. What Will Future Population Growth Be?
Voodoo Forecasting
Do Current Trends Call for Coercive Policies?
Who Will Support Whom? The Dependency Burdens
Decreasing Population Density in the Future?
Conclusion
24. Do Humans Breed Like Flies? Or Like Norwegian Rats?
Summary
25. Population Growth and the Stock of Capital
Simple Theory and Data
The Transportation Connection
The Effect of Population on Transportation Systems
Summary
Afternote: A Parable of Population Growth, Racquetball, and Squash
26. Population's Effects on Technology and Productivity
Summary and Concluding Thoughts
Afternote: On the Importance and Origins of Productive Knowledge
The Gains from Knowledge Creation
The Beneficiaries of Gains in Knowledge
Can We Be Sure That Knowledge Will Solve Our Problems?
27. Economies of Scope and Education
The Theory
The Statistical Evidence
Quantity and Quality of Education
Summary
28. Population Growth, Natural Resources, and Future Generations
The Family Analogy
A Model of the Increase in Natural Resources
The "Energy Crisis" and Population Policy
Are We Running a Ponzi Scheme on Future Generations?
Natural Resources and the Risk of Running Out
Can We Be Sure Technology Will Advance?
Summary: The Ultimate Resource-Is the Human Imagination in a Free Society
Afternote from the Beach
Afternote on the Economics of Chelm (Pronounced "Khelm")
29. Population Growth and Land
Historical Examples
Effects of Population Growth on Land Available for Recreation and Enjoyment
The Future Benefits of "Blight
Conclusion
Afternote: Population, Land, and War
30. Are People an Environmental Pollution?
Income, Growth, Population, and Pollution
Aesthetics, Pollution, and Population Growth
Pollution, Population, and Risk of Catastrophe
Summary
31. Are Humans Causing Species Holocaust?
Species Loss Estimates
The Risks from Species Loss
Knowing the Unknowable
Discussing Matters with the Conservationists
Conclusion
Afternote on the Philosophy of Species
32. A Greater Population Does Not Damage Health or Psychological and Social Well-Being
Population Density and Physical Health
The Psychological and Sociological Effects of Crowding
Population Growth and Intelligence
Population Density and War
What, Then, Determines Health?
Conclusions
33. The Big Economic Picture: Population Growth and Living Standards in MDCs
The Theory of Population and Income
The Evidence versus the Malthusian Theory
A More Realistic Model for MDCs
At the Cost of the Poorer Countries?
Summary
Afternote 1: William Shakespeare, Procreation, and the Economics of Development
Afternote 2: How Immigrants Affect Our Standard of Living
34. The Big Picture II: LDCs
The Conventional Theoretical Models
Again-The Data Contradict the Popular Models
The Role of the Political-Economic System
A Model That Reconciles Theory and Evidence for LDCs
Some Objections Considered
Summary
Afternote: The Limits to Growth, Global 2000, and Their Relatives
Part Three: Beyond the Data
35. How the Comparisons People Make Affect Their Beliefs about Whether Things Are Getting Better or Worse
Some Reflections on Jogging through San Francisco
36. The Rhetoric of Population Control: Does the End Justify the Means?
Inflammatory Terminology and Persuasion by Epithet
Phony Arguments, Crude and Subtle
Grabbing Virtue, Daubing with Sin
Why Is Population Rhetoric So Appealing?
Forces Amplifying the Rhetoric
Finally-The Piper
Afternote 1: A Rhetorical Analogy
Afternote 2: Planned Parenthood's Rhetoric
37. The Reasoning behind the Rhetoric
Rhetoric and Justification
Conclusion
38. Ultimately-What Are Your Values?
Some Values Relevant to Population Policy
Conclusion
39. The Key Values
The Value of a Poor Person's Life
The Born and the Unborn
What Is to Be Lost?
The Value of Per Capita Income in the Short Run
The Value of Saving versus the Value of Creating
The Question about Sound Judgment
People as Destroyers and Creators
When Is Coercion Justified?
The Value for Truth
Values about Population in Relation to Other Values
Summary
Conclusion. The Ultimate Resource
Is Our Age Different from Ages That Have Gone Before?
What Does the Future Hold?
Afternote 1: "Born without a Chance
Afternote 2: Prometheus Bound
Epilogue. My Critics and I
Substantive Issues
Epithets and Ridicule
Politicized Criticism
Response to the Personal Attacks
The Effects of the "Criticism
Two Letters from Hayek: Excerpts
Notes
References
Index

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