Introduction

Let's get one thing straight: Sports betting is an intellectual challenge with a tangible life-affirming, pocket-book-enhancing result at the end of each event (if all goes well). It's a test of your puzzle-solving skills. Can you find the hidden angle or discover some insight about the two teams on the field that the rest of the world missed?

In the old days, you'd have to travel to Nevada or have "a guy" if you wanted to bet on a sporting event. As the internet evolved, those with enough patience and tolerance for risk could pursue bets through offshore casinos. Thankfully, in this modern age, there are now a handful of states and Canadian provinces that permit sports betting. So if you're traveling to one of those regions, or if you're like me and you maintain an account with an online bookmaker, this is the book for you.

About This Book

If you've ever placed a friendly wager on a sporting event, then you understand the potential for fun. This book is going to explain the how the gambling market evolved for sports. I'll talk about the most common bets, the point spreads, the over/unders, the moneylines, the props, and the futures. I'll discuss how the sports betting market is constituted, and how you can participate.

In addition to the structure of the bet, I'll show you the step-by-step process for opening an account with an online bookmaker, and I'll show you how to read the menu of bets available at a casino or online bookmaker. I'll then show you how to recognize good bets and walk you through the process of placing a wager. My goal is to help you understand what you're up against, how you lose, and hopefully, how you win. Then I'll go sport by sport and talk about what it means to handicap a game, pick a winner, and bring home the bacon over the long run.

Las Vegas sports books have had one losing month over the last decade (July 2013, if you must know). Don't expect to stack money up by just throwing bets down on your favorite teams and players. Betting on sports is a process. Hobbyists are lucky if they break even. Professionals quit their day job if they can win 57 or 58 percent of their bets. I'll talk about why that's the case in this book, and I'll show you how you can emulate good bet-selection practices and payroll management.

But most of all, in Sports Betting For Dummies, I'm interested in putting you in a position to have fun. This is a hobby that can make you sing a song of joy and weep uncontrollably in the same day. Does that happen in your book club? Does stamp collecting invoke such highs and lows? Does golf? (Okay, maybe golf does.)

Many gambling books are built on assertions and platitudes, with little backing data. The point of this book is to not only provide you actionable strategies but to also build a foundation for you to find your own. I will help you learn how to interpret the betting market and how to assess betting propositions logically and quantitatively. I'll help you recognize when a tout is giving you a line of b.s. (can't curse in Dummies books), of which there is far too much of in this arena. I'll talk about the difference between something that's been asserted and something that has numbers behind it.

Sure, this book has "principles" and "rules of thumb" in spades. You'll learn lots of lessons and can be proud of yourself for that. But I also want to provide you with actionable intelligence. I'm holding nothing back: If I know a profitable approach to betting (like betting the home favorite the day after a double-header), I'm going to tell you about it. If I've learned bets to avoid, I'm going to tell you about them. I'm not only going to teach you to fish; I'm going to serve you some delicious sushi.

Gambling has its own private language, and sports betting has a sub-species of gamble-speak. This, more than the underlying concepts, can often be the biggest barrier to transitioning from a fan to a financially interested fan. So first and foremost, I'm going to demystify the language and basic concepts around sports betting.

Just so you know in advance, I'll set certain things apart in this book in specific ways so you know just what to do with the content:

• When there's a new word, important phrase, or a term of art you should remember, I'll italicize it and define it.
• There will be a chapter devoted to statistics and probability, and where a stand-alone equation is necessary, I'll explain each part to you.
• Although it's not a requirement, there will also be references to Microsoft Excel functions and Excel VBA code. Most of it is in Chapter 16.
• Different parts of the world have different ways of presenting odds to gamblers. I plan on using American odds notation.

Before You Go Any Further

The goal of the book is to instill you with the most useful 400 (or so) pages of information on sports betting. I'm going to promote beginners into functional sports betting dabblers. And I'm going to make knowledgeable gamblers out of dabblers. And if you think you're already more than just a dabbler, the book will introduce you to the full variety of popular sports and handicapping methodologies.

Having said that, it's not possible to cover every single opportunity to risk money on the outcome of a sporting event. There are so many sports and so many different kinds of bets out there. My goal is to focus on the sports you love, on the most accessible analysis methods, and on topics that I believe are the most underserved in libraries and bookstores today. If your "thing" is water polo or frog-jumping, or a sport or bet not covered in this book, I wish you much success, and I admit I won't have much to add.

So here are the topics that will either be lightly covered or downright ignored:

• Pari-mutuel betting (horse and dog racing, jai alai)
• Season-long fantasy sports
• Prediction markets (like betting on the Oscars or election results)
• Office pools (I will talk about placing bets on the Super Bowl and March Madness, but the focus will be on wagering, not winning goofy office contests.)
• E-sports
• Daily fantasy sports

The sports I've selected for this book are the ones most appealing to American and fans and bettors. If you're not a resident of North America, there is plenty in this book to help grow your understanding of sports betting in general and your approach to assessing and placing bets. But beware that if you have a specific sport you want to see addressed and it's not a sport that's terribly popular in North America, do yourself a favor and check the table of contents before embarking on this journey. I have no doubt that soccer, hockey, cricket, darts, handball, billiards, and bicycle racing are enthralling sports to watch and bet on, and I believe there are applicable lessons herein, but I'm sorry to say that I will not be specifically addressing those endeavors.

Foolish Assumptions

I can picture you, dear reader, reading this book. It was actually quite easy: When you ordered the book, your Alexa contacted my Alexa and told me everything about you. Here's what she told me, and here's the starting point for the book:

• You're probably a dude. Research says when it comes to gambling activities, women prefer games based on luck, and men prefer games where skill is involved. It's a control thing. Given how much luck is involved in winning sports bets, you ladies should really give this hobby another look-see. This is a fun hobby, and if you're a person of the female persuasion, I'd like to offer a non-threatening platonic high-five welcoming you aboard. We could use more gender equality in terms of the bettors and so-called celebrity experts.
• There's a distinct possibility that you are an avid fan of at least one major team sport; you might own a jersey with a spoiled millionaire's name on the back. If the team's any good, when their games are on TV, you cancel all plans, turn on your email "out of office" notification, and ask your significant other to find something else to do.
• Let's not kid each other. If you're a North American, you love either college or pro football. You might gripe about somebody taking a knee during the anthem, but you're not gonna stop watching. And you likely have a secondary sport like baseball or golf that you'll watch as well. This book will devote a lot of pages to winning football bets because, well, do we have to keep talking about it?
• You're a fantasy sports player. That makes you not only a fan but also a stat connoisseur. That's a good skill set to bring to the table. My guess is you get a little frustrated with the over-random nature of fantasy sports, which makes sports betting appealing to you.
• I'd be willing to, er, bet, that you don't have a moral objection to gambling. You might even have a friend who regularly places bets, and you'd like to be able to converse intelligently about sports betting with him or her.
• For sports you're less enthusiastic about, maybe it's tennis or baseball, you know, or at least suspect, that your level of fan intensity will rise exponentially if you have a dollar riding on the outcome....