Baseball's All-Time Best Sluggers

Preface ix

Abbreviations xi

Chapter 1: Fair Ball!: Why Adjustments Are Needed 1

PART ONE: The Methods

Chapter 2: Manager's Game Plan: Method for Identifying the Best Batters 11

Chapter 3: New Ball!: Historical Changes in Offensive Events 28

Chapter 4: Calling It a Career: Examining Player Aging 45

Chapter 5: Talent Search: Measuring the Spread in Player Performance 58

Chapter 6: Home Park Advantage: A Closer Look at Park Effects 69

PART TWO: The Findings

Chapter 7: Swing, Batter!: Adjusting Batting Average 101

Chapter 8: Hit. and Run: Adjusting Double and Triple Totals 108

Chapter 9: This One's Outta Here!: Adjusting Home Run Totals 118

Chapter 10: Changing the Score: Adjusting Run and RBI Totals 131

Chapter 11: The Count: Adjusting Walk and Strikeout Totals 149

Chapter 12: Stealing the Show: Adjusting Stolen Base Totals 162

Chapter 13: Putting It All Together: First, a Look at Traditional Measures 168

Chapter 14: Fantasy League: Baseball's Best Batters 177

Chapter 15: The Players Take the Field: Accounting for Player Position 189

Chapter 16: Final Score: Updates for the 2004 Season 204

Chapter 17: Post-Game Report: Conclusions 209

APPENDICES: Statistical Methods

A The Piecewise Linear Regression Method 219

B Moving Average Smoothing of Data 226

C The Multiple Changepoint Regression Procedure 228

D How to Estimate Ballpark Effects 235

E Transformations of Offensive Event Averages 247

F How to Adjust for Doubles and Triples 257

G Predicting Runs and RBIs from the Batting Record 260

Adjustment Data

H Regular Player Event Averages 265

I Event Performance Spreads 266

J Event Park Effects 267

K Home Run Park Effects 284

Player Results
L Best Individual Seasons 297

M Best Careers 327

N Adjusted Career Offensive Averages 356

Glossary 380

References 387

Player Index 389