Introduction

Energy is the key to prosperity and development. History shows this very clearly: from the mastery of fire, to the use of wind, water, and biomass in the Middle Ages, to the Industrial Revolution. When it became possible to tap large amounts of solar energy that had been stored in the Earth's crust for millions of years, people had energy in abundance for the first time. In the many thousands of years before that, the daily lives of the vast majority of people had been characterized by scarcity, poverty, and hunger.

Today, we are again at a similarly important milestone: the world needs a future-proof and sustainable energy system, firstly because fossil CO2 emissions have thrown the climate out of balance - with unforeseeable consequences - and secondly to finally lift billions of people in developing and emerging countries out of poverty. If we fail to do so, global tensions will continue to rise: new wars are already on the horizon, and migration flows will increase.

The vision of ALL IN! is to solve the climate problem for 10 billion people, enabling them to live in freedom, with adequate prosperity, social balance and in peace with nature. This goal can be achieved between 2050 and 2070. The guiding principle is to create global energy prosperity through innovation and the market, rather than managing energy scarcity. We believe we have found a viable way to achieve this goal and a Reference Solution: technically feasible, affordable, and within the limits of nature. Many rich countries today are primarily concerned with solving their own energy and climate problems, and they are on the wrong track, because climate nationalism will get us nowhere. The problem can only be solved globally - or not at all.

ALL IN! is also a counter-proposal to the current All-Electric approach. According to the latter, energy production, especially from solar and wind power, should be massively expanded until coal, gas and oil are completely replaced. Fossil fuels should simply be left in the ground, referred to as defossilization. In such a world, as many processes as possible will be electrically powered, with electrons. Where this is not possible, electricity-based molecules will be used: green hydrogen and the gaseous or liquid energy carriers produced from it.

Implementing All-Electric will inevitably require a great deal of sacrifice and moral effort, as energy becomes scarce. The result is a decline in wealth in rich countries. Germany is a striking example. The poorer countries will remain poor because All-Electric is too expensive for them. Developing and emerging countries will not follow this path.

All-electric is a dead end for a number of reasons. Core technologies of the concept, such as electrolysers, cannot be mass-produced as quickly as needed. More importantly, more than 80 percent of the world's primary energy currently comes from coal, gas, and oil (see Chapter 4, Figure 1). A global energy system cannot be transformed in one fell swoop. The entire history of technology is characterized by transformations that took place step by step and over decades. The call for complete defossilization is also a frontal attack on the coal, gas and oil producing countries. They will defend their business model, militarily if necessary. What is the alternative? Strictly speaking, the problem is not fossil fuels, but fossil emissions. These must be captured and disposed of. The technology is safe and proven: carbon capture.

ALL IN! relies on all available forms of energy that are climate-neutral and safe: renewable energy, fossil energy with carbon capture, nuclear energy, battery power, hydrogen, and climate-neutral fuels. Currently, 14 percent of the world's primary energy comes from renewables (6 percent from hydropower, 8 percent from other renewables, see Chapter 4, Figure 1). Increasing this to 50 percent will be a Herculean task. The other 50 percent will require other solutions, including nuclear energy, which currently provides 4 percent of the world's primary energy. Coal, gas and oil are deeply rooted in today's value chains, as energy sources and in the production of cement and steel. Humanity will continue to use fossil fuels for decades to come, which is another reason why carbon capture is so important.

ALL IN! relies on a stable electricity system, which is essential for industry and prosperity. However, wind and sun cannot always deliver. Electricity storage systems are either too small or too expensive, or they require large quantities of raw materials that are not available in sufficient quantities worldwide - for example, for batteries. The volatility of photovoltaic (PV) and wind must therefore be balanced by affordable and reliably controllable energy, primarily from fossil (gas) power plants with carbon capture or from nuclear power. Two pillars are therefore essential for a reliable electricity system: volatile renewables on the one hand, and nuclear or fossil energy with carbon capture on the other.

ALL IN! relies on all forms of energy transport. In addition to electricity (electrons), climate-neutral fuels (molecules) are needed on a large scale. This is especially true for mobility. For airplanes and ships, there is no way around e-fuels or bio-fuels. Electrifying the world's fleet of nearly 1.6 billion cars and trucks is an illusion, especially since the fleet is long-lived and growing. That is why large quantities of climate-neutral fuels are needed.

ALL IN! focuses on pragmatism and openness to technology. Advanced technology helps to generate more energy, more products and more services with less use of natural resources. This opens the door to greater prosperity for all. And if we do it right, it can be done while protecting the environment and conserving resources. Innovation is the key to sustainability. But technology alone is not enough. The right framework conditions are also essential to ensure that environmental and social concerns are taken into account.

ALL IN! is based on global cooperation. To achieve this, the global economy needs a fair framework: global markets with ecological and social guidelines. Competition ensures high (cost) efficiency in economic processes. Which goals are achieved depends on the conditions under which competition takes place. This is the principle of a global eco-social market economy. Global financial instruments and cooperation are crucial, also in order to restore much of what has been destroyed in recent decades.

ALL IN! focuses on all countries of the world, because the climate issue will not be decided in Germany or Europe, not even in the United States, but in China, India and Africa. Not surprisingly, the greatest challenges to solving the global climate problem lie in the developing and emerging countries. These countries are undergoing largely unavoidable and decisive growth processes, both in terms of population and economy. Economic growth is a political imperative for these countries; it is also objectively necessary and accepted by the international community. Developing and emerging countries do not need to reduce their relatively low per capita CO2 emissions. On the contrary, their emissions can increase. Only with economic growth can all 17 sustainability goals of the UN 2030 Agenda be achieved: ALL IN!

ALL IN! aims to quadruple the gross domestic product of developing and emerging countries to 80 trillion US dollars by the middle of the century. Considerable efforts are needed to ensure that the growth processes targeted, an average annual increase in GDP of 6 percent in the global South, do not run counter to the ecological support systems, especially the climate system: starting with energy efficiency, plus a mix of different energy technologies, plus relief of the atmosphere through nature-based solutions.

ALL IN! relies on technology and nature. Nature is a major CO2 reservoir. Plants absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. Soils, especially in wetlands, store CO2 when they are intact. The oceans do the same. This ability to sequester CO2 helps us tackle the climate problem. After all, nature absorbs about one-third of man-made emissions. It is important to strengthen nature's ability to do this. One of the fastest and most effective ways to protect the climate is to preserve tropical rainforests. Money must flow for every hectare that is preserved, year after year. Satellite monitoring ensures success. This is the model that should be used for cross-financing: money for performance.

ALL IN! focuses on three programs for nature-based solutions: rainforest conservation, long-term programs for large-scale reforestation of degraded land in the Global South, and soil improvement, such as humification with biochar. These measures can create millions of new jobs in developing countries. At the same time, they can reduce global CO2 emissions by about 10 billion tonnes per year after ramp-up, permanently sequestering carbon.

ALL IN! is committed to Net Zero for all greenhouse gasses, not just CO2. Methane emissions alone account for 16 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and are an important starting point for greenhouse gas reduction. The focus is on best practices for minimizing emissions in the production, transportation and use of natural gas, as well as in the management of depleted reservoirs.

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