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Make AI technology the backbone of your organization to compete in the Fintech era
The rise of artificial intelligence is nothing short of a technological revolution. AI is poised to completely transform asset management and investment banking, yet its current application within the financial sector is limited and fragmented. Existing AI implementations tend to solve very narrow business issues, rather than serving as a powerful tech framework for next-generation finance. Artificial Intelligence for Asset Management and Investment provides a strategic viewpoint on how AI can be comprehensively integrated within investment finance, leading to evolved performance in compliance, management, customer service, and beyond.
No other book on the market takes such a wide-ranging approach to using AI in asset management. With this guide, you'll be able to build an asset management firm from the ground up-or revolutionize your existing firm-using artificial intelligence as the cornerstone and foundation. This is a must, because AI is quickly growing to be the single competitive factor for financial firms. With better AI comes better results. If you aren't integrating AI in the strategic DNA of your firm, you're at risk of being left behind.
Until now, it has been prohibitively difficult to map the high-tech world of AI onto complex and ever-changing financial markets. Artificial Intelligence for Asset Management and Investment makes this difficulty a thing of the past, providing you with a professional and accessible framework for setting up and running artificial intelligence in your financial operations.
AL NAQVI is the CEO of the American Institute of Artificial Intelligence, where he designs and develops machine learning based finance products, teaches classes on applied AI, deep learning, and cognitive transformation, and leads the company strategy. He studies the application of deep learning to financial engineering, investment, and asset management. He is also the author of Artificial Intelligence for Audit, Forensic Accounting, and Valuation (Wiley).
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xxi
Chapter 1: AI in Investment Management 1
What about AI Suppliers? 5
Listening without Judging 6
The Four Stages of AI in Investments 9
The Core Model of AIAI 14
Your Journey through This Book 16
How to Read and Apply this Book? 16
References 17
Chapter 2: AI and Business Strategy 19
Why Strategy? The Red Button 19
AI-a Revolution of its Own 21
Intelligence as a Competitive Advantage 22
Intelligence as a Competitive Advantage and Various Strategy Schools 23
The Intelligence School 25
Intelligence and Actions 26
Actions 27
Automation 28
Intelligence Action Chain and Sequence 28
Enterprise Software 29
Data 29
Competitive Advantage 30
Business Capabilities 31
Chapter 3: Design 35
Who Is Responsible for Design? 36
Introduction to Design 36
AI as a Competitive Advantage 38
The Ten Elements of Design 40
1. Design Your Business Model 41
2. Set Goals for the Entire Firm 44
3. Specify Objectives for Automation and Intelligence 45
4. Design Work Task Frames Based on Human-Computer Interaction 45
5. Perform a DTC (Do, Think, Create) Analysis 46
6. Create a SADAL Framework 47
7. Deploy a Feedback System and Define Performance Measures 49
8. Determine the Business Case or Value 49
9. Analyze Risks 50
10. Develop a Governance Plan 50
Some Additional Ideas about Designing Intellectualization 50
Summary of the Design Process 51
References 52
Chapter 4: Data 53
Who Is Responsible for the Data Capability? 53
Data and Machine Learning 55
Raw Data 55
Structured vs. Unstructured Data 56
Data Used in Investments 57
Data Management Function for the AI Era 58
Step 1: Data Needs Assessment (DNA) 59
Step 2: Perform Strategic Data Planning 59
Step 3: Know the Sensors and Sources (Identify Gaps) 61
Step 4: Procure and Understand the Supply Base 61
Step 5: Understand the Data Type (Signals) 62
Step 6: Organize Data for Usability 62
Step 7: Architect Data 63
Step 8: Ensure Data Quality 63
Step 9: Data Storage and Warehousing 63
Step 10: Excel in Data Security and Privacy 63
Step 11: Implement Data for AI 64
Step 12: Provide Investment Specialization 65
About Legacy Data Management 66
References 67
Chapter 5: Model Development 69
Who Is Responsible? 69
High-Level Process 70
Models 73
The Power of Patterns 74
Techniques of Learning 75
What Is Machine Learning? 76
Scientific Process on Steroids 79
The Learning Machines 79
Algorithms 80
Supervised Learning 82
Supervised: Classification 85
Classification: Random Forest 86
Classification: Using Mathematical Functions 87
Classification: Simple Linear Classifier 88
Supervised: Support Vector Machine 91
Classification: Naive Bayes 94
Classification: Bayesian Belief Networks 95
Classification: k-Nearest Neighbor 95
Supervised: Regression 96
Supervised: Multidimensional Regression 99
Unsupervised Learning 100
Neural Networks 103
Reinforcement Learning 106
References 107
Chapter 6: Evaluation 109
Who Performs the Evaluation? 109
Problems 111
Making the Model Work 111
Overfitting and Underfitting 113
Scale and Machine Learning 113
New Methods 114
Bias and Variance 115
Backtesting 116
Backtesting Protocol 119
References 121
Chapter 7: Deployment 123
Reference Architecture 127
The Reference Architecture and Hardware 130
References 131
Chapter 8: Performance 133
Who Is Responsible for Performance? 134
What Are the Work Processes of Performance? 134
Business Performance 136
Technological Performance 138
References 141
Chapter 9: A New Beginning 143
Building an Investment Management Firm Around Artificial Intelligence? 144
The Fallacy of Going Digital 145
Why Build Your Firm Around AI? 148
You Must Rely on Your Own Capabilities 149
What Is Asset Science? 150
A Healthy Cycle 154
The Tool Set 155
This Is Not Just Automation 156
References 157
Chapter 10: Customer Experience Science 159
Customer Experience 159
Value, Strength, and Duration of Relationship 160
Understanding Customers: Empathy for CX 161
Steps to Become an Empathetic Asset Management Firm 162
Know Your Empmeter 162
Expand Empathy Awareness and Understanding 163
Incorporate into Products and Services 163
What Is Automated Empathy and Compassion (AEC)? 163
Incorporating AEC Marketing 165
References 168
Chapter 11: Marketing Science 171
Who Undertakes This Responsibility? 171
How to Apply AI for Marketing 172
Begin with Assessment 172
Know Your Data 174
The AI Plan for Asset Management Marketing 176
Perform Strategic Planning 176
Manage Product Portfolio with AI 179
Transform Your Communications 180
Build Relationships 181
Execute with Excellence 181
References 182
Chapter 12: Land that Institutional Investor with AI 183
Who Is Responsible for IRMS Automation? 183
Is IRMS Your CRM System? 184
Know Thyself: Automated Self-Discovery 184
Automated Asset Class Analysis 185
Automated Institutional Analysis 185
Automated Structure and Terms Analysis 186
Automated Fee Analysis 186
Automated Communications 186
Unleash the Power of Knowing 188
Chapter 13: Sales Science 189
What Is Sales Science? 189
Who Is Responsible for Implementing Sales Science? 190
Are You Driving This in Sales? 190
How to Build Your AI-Based Sales System 193
References 195
Chapter 14: Investment: Managing the Returns Loop 197
Who Is Responsible for Investment Management? 197
How to Approach Building the New-Era Investment Function? 198
The Core Tool Set 204
What Will Be the Function of Your Investment Lab? 206
Make the Decisions 206
A New World 207
The (Unnecessary) Debate 208
More Behaviors 208
Research and Investment Strategy 209
Portfolio 210
Performance 210
References 210
Chapter 15: Regulatory Compliance and Operations 213
Who Is Responsible? 213
Regulatory Compliance 213
Why Intelligent Automation? 214
Have You Scoped Out What to Do? 215
How to Do It? 215
How to Use Technology for GIPS Implementation? 217
Back and Middle Office 219
Chapter 16: Supply Chain Science 221
Who Is Responsible for Supply Chain Science? 221
How to Think about Supply Chains 222
References 225
Chapter 17: Corporate Social Responsibility 227
CSR Woes: Can Processes Explain Them? 227
What Are the Criticisms of CSR? 228
Measurement Issues 228
Behavioral and Role Issues 230
Strategic and Organizational Issues 230
How to Apply AI in CSR? 231
CSR Must Not Be Forgotten 232
ESG Investment 232
How Can AI Help? 234
You Must Avoid These Mistakes 236
Summary Steps 236
References 237
Chapter 18: AI Organization and Project Management 241
The New Asset Management Organization 241
Why a CAIO/COO Role? 243
What Is Changing? 244
How to Get There? 244
Issues of the New Organization 246
Change Management 248
Managing AI Projects 249
References 250
Chapter 19: Governance and Ethics 251
Corporate Governance with AI 251
Governance of AI 257
Framing the Ethical Problems from a Pragmatic Viewpoint 261
Some Obvious Ethical Issues 262
Humans and AI 262
Ethics Charter 263
References 264
Chapter 20: Adaptation and Emergence 267
The Revolution Is Real 268
Complex Adaptive Systems 270
Our Coronavirus Meltdown Prediction 271
Index 273
ARE YOU SEEKING A BOOK on artificial intelligence (AI) in finance? Good news and not so good news. Good news is that you are likely to find many books; bad news is that most of those are written by quants and for quants. Riddled with complex math equations, proofs, and theorems, these books speak a language that many people do not understand.
It is as if authors want to demonstrate how much they know about machine learning but not tell you what you need to know. The tone is often ridiculing, even insulting, as if each sentence is coded language to discourage nonmembers from entering the exclusive club of AI. In some cases, the tone is demeaning toward even other quants, with the connotation of "you don't know, we know" position. The subtle undertone is clear: if you do not understand complex math and data science, you do not deserve to enter the amazing world of AI. This esoteric, closed, and limited membership in AI is problematic at many levels.
If you have not spent decades in the investment world and you talk to some hardcore finance professionals, they will remind you that if you are an experienced data scientist, then you don't belong in the industry. You will be labeled as "too naive" or "too young" or "too inexperienced." If you are an expert in deep learning and reinforcement learning, they will tell you that you have no use in the finance world. They will argue that deep learning and reinforcement learning are not being extensively used in finance (what they are really saying is that they are not using these models, and they have not seen those being widely used in practice). This criticism of machine learning professionals can be viewed as a mix of some reality and a bit of fear of the unknown.
Do not get me wrong. Certain authors are well-meaning and direct. They point out the gaps and show how to close them. They recognize that one must be blunt and direct to show the weaknesses. For instance, De Prado's approach is a passionate wake-up call for many quant organizations, and I am confident his work saved billions of dollars and avoided many unnecessary catastrophes (De Prado, Advances in Financial Machine Learning, Wiley 2018). I am referring to those who point out problems but never provide solutions.
It is true that finance machine learning is different. The signal-to-noise ratio is low. You are dealing with a dynamic and constantly changing system. Your every action is under scrutiny. You are dealing with significant amounts of unstructured data. You could be identifying relationships and then trying to discover the theory of attempting to explain what is transpiring. Many interesting finds are prone to overfitting. You are operating in an environment that is not only constantly changing-your interaction with it is exposing your strategy, and hence your strategy is subject to constant reinvention.
Now come to the non-quant consulting club. There are several people who are trivializing AI. This is the hype club that opens every AI conversation with a vague, astrology-styled notion of future of work, and the next words in those conversations are almost always deep learning, AlphaGo, and IBM AI winning the Jeopardy! contest. When quants hear that, they get frustrated-and rightfully so. In the words of the great master, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler" (Albert Einstein). The hype club is composed of classical digital era consultants who are trying to figure out how to apply their ERP and CRM playbooks to get machine learning working. That approach will not work.
This book is neither a manual to implement quantamental algorithms nor a buzz-filled consulting talk of the hype club. It is a practical manual that can be used by both parties-quantitatively oriented investment managers and the leaders of support functions in asset management. It is a pragmatic approach to build a modern asset management firm. It is written with the intent to bring both quants and non-quants together to rebuild their firms around AI and do that based on the scientific method.
If asset management was all about quantitative strategies, then you would not need sales organizations. If AI was only for quantitative strategies, then you would not see AI in any other function such as marketing, sales, human resources, and others. An asset management firm is more than just its investment wing, and AI is more than just for the quant departments.
Yet, if Nabisco didn't make good cookies, then regardless of how well the support function performs, cookies would not sell. In other words, the investment function is at the heart of asset management, and that function must be realigned with the developments in the financial machine learning. The traditional statistical solutions are inefficient and ineffective to deal with the nature of problems, the datasets, the unstructured nature of data, the sparse high-dimensional data, and the rapidly changing investment environment. Top-down theory application can only go so far. A new way of doing things is needed.
To read this book, you do not need to have a PhD in math or computer science or data science. If you have one, that will help you acquire the strategic business action plan for transforming an investment management firm. If you come from business, analytics, financial, or strategy sides, this book will introduce you to the fascinating world of AI. The point is that whether your starting point is mathematics, computer science, or data science-or your entry point is business, finance, or strategy-to be successful today you need to learn how to create investment transformation. And the only way that transformation happens is when all parties-technologists, investment professionals, and businesspeople-meet in the middle. That meeting point is known as the AI transformational space.
This is the first book on the strategic perspective of artificial intelligence in investment management that gives you a comprehensive plan for AI-centric transformation. The goal of the book is to help you build a powerful firm by navigating through the complex and fascinating world of AI.
To keep machine learning trapped in the quantitative investment departments is dangerous. First, it assumes that machine learning is only applicable in trading-centric investment operations. It ignores the fact that machine learning is a pervasive technology that is being used and deployed in all areas of an asset management firm. Those areas include marketing, human resources, sales, compliance, corporate social responsibility (CSR), and many others. Second, it incorrectly assumes that people with PhDs in mathematics, computer science, or AI are the only ones interested in AI. This assumption is often based on the historical roots of machine learning, when it was viewed as the exclusive toolkit of quantitative investment in legacy firms. That exclusivity is no longer true. Third, this closed, cult-style adherence is extremely dangerous as it assumes that a firm's business model is static. It ignores the fact that fintech start-ups and tech firms are entering the legacy space and architecting their business models with AI-and that responding to such a powerful competitive threat requires a far more strategic approach to AI in finance than the one that comes with quantitative investment only. Fourth, to build a modern firm, you must approach AI as a strategic process that is embedded in the strategic DNA of the firm and as an industrial-scale machine learning operation. To do that, you must have an enterprise-level approach and not just a quant-specific viewpoint.
However, trivializing AI as some fictional, motivational, hyped-up, or management-consulting buzz phenomenon is equally dangerous. That approach can win some near-term contracts but generally leads to disappointment in the long run. Projects fail or fail to deliver the promised value. When Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is sold as AI and AI is sold as a point solution while ignoring the data, it hurts all parties.
The reality is that the asset and investment management world is at the cusp of a major transformation. This transformation is not an ordinary evolution in the normal course of business. It is a revolutionary change that is creating never-seen-before opportunities and threats. It has unleashed an enormous force that is demanding new ways to respond to the challenge.
Thus, AI must not be approached as a toolkit, merely a technology, or a hyped-up technological change. It is pervasive and transformative. It is revolutionary and emergent. Most importantly, this change belongs to everyone and not just a narrow segment of your workforce. To begin with, the C-suites and boards need to understand this change. They are at the helm of their business, and the introduction of AI has altered the strategic maps. They need to rethink how to navigate through these troubled waters. Then, heads of departments of all functional areas-marketing, sales, regulatory and compliance, human resources, procurement, and others-must develop AI-centric transformation plans. Their plans should be consistent with the strategy of the firm. In addition to the support organizations, the investment operation should be approached strategically. The process, incentive systems, organizational setup, and theoretical foundations on how investment organizations are set up should be questioned. The powerful rise of AI and its effect on asset management compel us to rethink our business models.
This book, therefore, is a guide for every person who is in any manner affiliated with the finance industry. From asset...
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