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The Manual of Ideas is the indispensable resource top investment firms like Berkshire Hathaway rely on for cutting edge research and investment ideas. As the definitive source for value investing opportunities, this book takes you inside the minds of the world's top money managers to learn how they generate the bright ideas that lead to big profits. This new second edition includes insights from more than 100 exclusive interviews with leading fund managers to give you access to the thought processes of super value investors including Warren Buffett, Tom Gayner, and Joel Greenblatt. Real-life case studies bring each approach to life, revealing key lessons along the way, and new tables and charts illuminate important concepts to provide a quicker, easier read.
Successful investing begins with idea generation. Following the crowd will only get you so far, and the most successful investors from around the globe have developed their own approaches to identifying the right opportunities at the right time. This book lays out a gold mine of a framework to help you generate your own new and profitable value investment ideas.
Creative thinking is the unexpected lifeblood of investing, which is why great ideas are the focus of this book. If you're ready to take investing to the next level, you're going to have to realign your thinking-and The Manual of Ideas is your roadmap to untapped opportunity.
JOHN MIHALJEVIC, CFA, serves as Managing Editor of Latticework.com and Chairman of MOI Global, which he founded in 2008. Through invitation-only events and member publications, MOI Global fosters a community of intelligent investors united by a passion for lifelong learning. From 2005-2016, John managed a private partnership, Mihaljevic Partners LP. He is a winner of the Value Investors Club's prize for best investment idea. John is a trained capital allocator, having studied under Yale University Chief Investment Officer David Swensen and served as Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate James Tobin. John holds a BA in Economics, summa cum laude, from Yale and is a CFA charterholder. He resides near Zurich, Switzerland.
Foreword to the First Edition ix
Foreword to The Manual of Ideas (Second Edition) xi
Preface xv
Part One MINDSET
Chapter 1 Identify as a Capital Allocator: Put Your Capital Where It Is Treated Best 3
Passive Versus Active Investing 4
Role of Capital Allocator 9
Owner Mentality 17
Stock Selection Framework 21
Key Takeaways 23
Notes 25
Chapter 2 Invert, Always Invert: To Finish First, First Finish 27
Following the Crowd 30
If You Don't Blow Up 37
Ergodicity: Win Infinite Games 40
Entropy: A Lesson from Thermodynamics 43
Key Takeaways 46
Notes 48
Part Two IDEA GENERATION
Chapter 3 Ben Graham Bargains: Deep Discounts to Readily Ascertainable Net Asset Value 51
The Approach: Why It Works 52
Uses and Misuses of Deep Value Investing 63
Screening for Graham-Style Bargains 71
Beyond Screening: Working Through a List of Deep Value Candidates 74
Asking the Right Questions of Graham-Style Bargains 79
Key Takeaways 84
Notes 85
Chapter 4 Sum of the Parts: Investing in Companies with Multiple Sources of Value 87
The Approach: Why It Works 88
Uses and Misuses of Investing in Companies with Overlooked Assets 91
Screening for Companies with Multiple Assets 94
Beyond Screening: Proven Ways of Finding Hidden Assets 100
Asking the Right Questions of Companies with Hidden Assets 108
Key Takeaways 111
Notes 112
Chapter 5 Compounders, GARP, and Greenblatt's Magic Formula 115
The Approach: Why It Works 116
Uses and Misuses of Investing in Good and Cheap Companies 123
Screening for Good and Cheap Companies 131
Beyond Screening: Hope for Improvement Springs Eternal 135
Asking the Right Questions of Greenblatt-Style Bargains 139
Key Takeaways 146
Notes 147
Chapter 6 Jockeys: Great Managers, Owner-Operators, and "Outsiders": Making Money Alongside Great CEOs 149
The Approach: Why It Works 151
Uses and Misuses of Investing in Jockeys 154
Screening for Jockey Stocks 164
Beyond Screening: Building a Rolodex of Great Managers 174
Asking the Right Questions of Management 179
Key Takeaways 185
Notes 186
Chapter 7 The Smart Money: Finding Opportunity in Superinvestor Portfolios 189
Superinvestors Are Super for a Reason 190
Uses and Misuses of Superinvestor Tracking 193
Screening for Companies Owned by Superinvestors 196
The Superinvestors of Buffettsville 198
Beyond Screening: What Makes a Company Attractive to Superinvestors? 205
Key Takeaways 209
Notes 211
Chapter 8 Diamonds in the Rough: The Opportunity in Underfollowed Small- and Micro-Caps 213
The Approach: Why It Works 214
Uses and Misuses of Investing in Small Companies 219
Screening for Promising Small- and Micro-Caps 223
Beyond Screening: Other Ways of Finding Compelling Small- and Micro-Cap Ideas 231
Asking the Right Questions of Small-Cap Prospects 241
Key Takeaways 246
Notes 247
Chapter 9 Special Situations: Uncovering Opportunity in Event-Driven Investments 249
The Approach: Why It Works 250
Uses and Misuses of Investing in Special Situations 254
Uncovering Special Situations 262
Asking the Right Questions of Special Situations 266
Key Takeaways 271
Notes 272
Chapter 10 Equity Stubs: Investing (or Speculating) in Leveraged Companies 273
The Approach: Why It Works 275
Uses and Misuses of Investing in Equity Stubs 276
Screening for Equity Stubs 285
Beyond Screening: An Ambulance-Chasing Approach 288
Asking the Right Questions of Equity Stubs 291
Key Takeaways 298
Notes 299
Chapter 11 Global Investing: Searching for Value beyond Home Country Borders 301
The Approach: Why It Works 303
Uses and Misuses of Investing in International Equities 306
Screening for International Equities 314
Beyond Screening: Riding the Coattails of Regional Experts 320
Asking the Right Questions of International Equities 324
Key Takeaways 328
Notes 329 Bibliography 331 About the Author 343 Index 345
Man the living creature, the creating individual, is always more important than any established style or system.
-Bruce Lee
The stock market is a curious place because everyone participating in it is loosely interested in the same thing-making money. Still, there is no uniform path to achieving this rather uniform goal. You may be only a few clicks away from purchasing the popular book The Warren Buffett Way,1 but only one man has ever truly followed the path of Warren Buffett. In investing, it is hard enough to succeed as an original; as a copycat, it is virtually impossible. Each of us must carve out a personal way to investment success, even if you are a professional investor.
That said, great investors like Warren Buffett, Peter Keefe, and Howard Marks have much to teach us, and we have much to gain by learning from them. One of the masters' key teachings is as important as it is simple: A share of stock represents a share in the ownership of a business. A stock exchange simply provides a convenient means of exchanging your ownership for cash. Without an exchange, your ownership of a business would not change. The ability to sell your stake would be negatively affected, but you would still be able to do it, just as you can sell your car or house if you decide to do so.
Unfortunately, when we start investing, we are inevitably bombarded with distractions that make it easy to forget the essence of stock ownership. These titillations include the ticker tape on CNBC, the seemingly omniscient talking heads, the polished corporate press releases, stock price charts that are consolidating or breaking out, analyst estimates being beaten, and stock prices hitting new highs. It feels a little like living in the world of Curious George, the lovable monkey for whom it is "easy to forget" the well-intentioned advice of his friend. My son loved Curious George stories, because as surely as George gets into trouble, he finds a way out of trouble. The latter doesn't always hold true for investors in the stock market.
I still remember the day I had saved the princely sum of $100,000. I had worked as a research analyst for a San Francisco investment bank for a couple of years and had managed to put aside what I considered to be an amount that made me a free man. Freedom, I reasoned, was possible only if one did not have to work to survive; otherwise, one was forced into a form of servitude that involved trading time for food and shelter. With the money saved, I could quit my job, move to a place like Thailand, and live on interest income. While I wisely chose not to exercise my freedom option, I still had to find something to do with the money.
I dismissed an investment in mutual funds because I was familiar with findings that the vast majority of funds underperformed the market indices on an after-fee basis.2 I also became aware of the oft-neglected but crucial fact that investors tended to add capital to funds after a period of good performance and withdraw capital after a period of bad performance. This caused investors' actual results to lag significantly behind the funds' reported results. Fund prospectuses show time-weighted returns, but investors in those funds reap the typically lower capital-weighted returns. A classic example of this phenomenon is the Munder NetNet Fund, an internet fund that lost investors billions of dollars from 1997 through 2002. Despite the losses, the fund reported a positive compounded annual return of 2.15 percent for the period. The reason? The fund managed little money when it was doing well in the late 1990s. Then, just as billions in new capital poured in, the fund embarked on a debilitating three-year losing streak.3 Although I had felt immune to the temptation to buy after a strong run in the market and to sell after a sharp decline, I thought this temptation would be easier to resist if I knew exactly what I owned and why I owned it. Owning shares in a mutual fund meant trusting the fund manager to pick the right investments. Trust tends to erode after a period of losses.
Mutual funds and lower-cost index funds should not be entirely dismissed, however, as they offer an acceptable alternative for those wanting to delegate investment decision-making to someone else. Value mutual funds such as Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Fund or Mason Hawkins's Longleaf Funds, or Europe-based UCITS funds4 such as Terry Smith's Fundsmith Equity Fund, are legitimate choices for many individual investors. High-net-worth investors and institutions enjoy the additional option of investing in hedge funds, but few of those funds deserve their typically steep management and performance fees. Warren Buffett critiqued the hedge fund fee structure in his 2006 letter to shareholders: "It's a lopsided system whereby 2 percent of your principal is paid each year to the manager even if he accomplishes nothing-or, for that matter, loses you a bundle-and, additionally, 20 percent of your profit is paid to him if he succeeds, even if his success is due simply to a rising tide. For example, a manager who achieves a gross return of 10 percent in a year will keep 3.6 percentage points-two points off the top plus 20 percent of the residual eight points-leaving only 6.4 percentage points for his investors."5
A small minority of value-oriented hedge fund managers have chosen to side with Buffett on the fee issue, offering investors a structure similar to that of the limited partnerships Buffett managed in the 1960s. Buffett charged no management fee and a performance fee only on returns in excess of an annual hurdle rate. The pioneers in this small but growing movement include Guy Spier of Zurich, Switzerland-based Aquamarine Capital Management, and Mohnish Pabrai of Irvine, California-based Pabrai Investment Funds. These types of funds bestow a decisive advantage, ceteris paribus, on long-term investors. Table 1.1 shows the advantages of an investor-friendly fee structure.
TABLE 1.1 Effect of Fees on the Future Wealth of a Hedge Fund Investor
I also considered investing my savings in one of a handful of public companies that operate as low-cost yet high-quality investment vehicles. Berkshire Hathaway pays Warren Buffett an annual salary of $100,000 for arguably the finest capital allocation skills in the world. Buffett receives no bonus, no stock options, and no restricted stock, let alone hedge-fund-style performance fees.6 It certainly seems like investors considering an investment in a highly prized hedge fund should first convince themselves that their prospective fund manager can beat Buffett. Doing this on a pre-fee basis is hard enough; on an after-fee basis, the odds diminish considerably. Of course, buying a share of...
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