MAKING THE LINE The odds we assign are based on one premise: If this race were run 100 times, how many would each horse win? In reality, this race is going to be run only once and there is going to be only one winner. But by assigning chances, we force ourselves to reflect on every possible factor and come to conclusions. At the track, few players make up an odds line. Most express their opinions vaguely: "I like the 4 a little bit." "It looks close between the 3, 6, and 8." "The 5 looks good, but the price is a little short." We don't want vagueness. If you like the 4 "a little bit," what exactly does that mean?At 6-1? As the probable winner and playable at 6-5? Enough to make a large bet on him? If you don't make a line, you won't be able to quickly determine whether a bet offers value. And it puts you in league with the pathetic souls who narrow the race to six contenders, bet one of the losers, and then say "I shudda had him" when one of the others wins. Making an odds line does several things for you. It requires you to quantify your opinion, so that you're considering not just one horse, but how that horse relates to everyone else. It is a test of handicapping ability which can be measured over years, in that you can survey the performance of all your 2-1 shots, all your 6-1 shots, etc. It enables you to find overlays in win, place, show, exacta, and daily double pools, and to calculate exactly what your chances are of winning a particular pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, or pick 6. If you've never made an odds line before, it will take you some time initially. As with any skill, the more you practice, the swifter you'll get. In the middle of a season, it normally takes me no more than five minutes to not only mark the Form but to compute my odds line for that race. The entire card rarely takes more than an hour. As the total chances of all contestants equal 100%, so must our odds line. (The track's line, which allows for takeout, may equal 125% or more-ours must always equal 100%, never higher.) Here is the odds-percentage table to use: If we think that Horse A would win this race half the time, we look under 50% in the table and mark Horse A at even money. If we think his main rival, B, would win 25% of the time, we make him 3-1. We continue this process all the way through the field. Odds are merely a numerical way to express chances. Odds of 4-1, for example, mean the horse has one chance in five-20%-of winning. You won't need to do so, because the table lists the percentages, but here is how to calculate them using a 7-2 shot as an example: Working the other way, let's say you use a mathematical system that gives a certain horse 23.7% of the points: Every handicapping factor gets its due in your line. Everything positive makes a horse more likely to win, and thus lowers his odds. Everything negative makes him more likely to lose, and thus raises his odds. Your numbers will reflect only what you think the chances are of each horse's winning the race. Unlike the morning linemaker, you have no interest in predicting what the public will do. Unlike a Nevada sports-betting linemaker, you're not trying to come up with a number that will attract equal action on both sides. The only thing you are concerned about is expressing your opinion about a race numerically. Like a horse, give him low odds. Hate him, give him high odds. When compiling the line, start with the most likely winner, proceed to the second choice, drop to the third choice, etc., in order. You can work in one of two ways: I use the second method, since I carry the conversion numbers in my head. But whichever method you use, the procedure is the same: Give everyone odds, add the totals, then adjust your numbers. If your total exceeds 100%, increase the odds of some horses (e.g., raise one horse from 5-2 to 3-1 and another from 6-1 to 7-1). If it's too low, cut the odds of some horses (e.g., drop one from 8-5 to 3-2, another from 9-2 to 4-1, etc.). Keep the odds-percentage table by your side as you work. Here would be a typical first-draft line on a race: Our total comes to 111%-too high. So we fiddle, reviewing the race to increase the odds on some horses while pondering our rank order. At times we'll raise the favorite, other times the least likely winners, often a combination-there's no set pattern. Does #1 have some negatives which would cause us to raise his odds? Are #6 and #7 really that close? Should #3 be longer than 6-1? After adjustment, our new line may be: Note that we kept one horse (#5) the same and moved another (#8) two points on the line. In some races, we need adjust only one horse; occasionally our preliminary line will add up to 99% and we won't need to make any changes. These three sample races, entirely different in their makeup, show some of the possibilities in line-making. In I, we have a lukewarm favorite, two solid second choices, and a few outside possibilities. In II, we can't pick a favorite (#1 and #3 wind up co-favored on our line) and we give seven horses a decent chance. In III, we have an outstanding favorite who dominates the race. Because every race is different, no single model is applicable to all of them. Remain flexible. When you have stable entries, give each horse points on your line, then add them to get the entry's total and assign odds based on that total. For example, if in a three-horse entry you make one 3-1, a second 5-1, and a third 15-1, the entry would receive 25.00 + 16.67 + 6.25, for a total of 47.92 points out of your 100-point pie. The closest lower total on the chart would make the entry 6-5, even though you don't like any individual member better than 3-1. At the harness races, a difficult horse to make a line on is the breaker, especially the good trotter who figures to either win or gallop. When making a line for a trot race, assume everyone will stay flat. Then adjust for the likelihood of each horse's going off-stride. For instance, you figure that Stan Swifty has a 50% chance to win if he stays flat but he breaks one-fourth of the time. That would give him a .50 x.75 or 37.5% chance of winning. His odds on your line should be 9-5, not 1-1. In a race where tote action will be the key to a horse's chances (e.g., a gambling stable has a well-bred 2-year-old who was a nowhere 40-1 in its debut), make your line as if the mystery horse is a throwout but put the word "board" next to its odds. This will alert you that any heavy tote action on the animal means you should re-evaluate the race-and possibly not play it at all. It costs nothing to pass a questionable race. Make your lines long before the first race. Otherwise, an early score (or setback) may mess up your thinking. The calm before your opening bet is the best time to make your lines. If post time is 1 p.m., either work on your line in the morning (after calling to get the late scratches), or arrive at the track by 11:30 a.m. to allow time to finish your work. After you've finished your preliminary line, make late changes based on scratches, jockey switches, especially sharp (or dull) paddock appearances, or (for later races) a change in track condition or a possible track bias. That gives you the final line-the numbers that will tell you if the crowd offers value in that race. Use your numbers to find overlays in various pools where TV monitors or the toteboard display possible payoffs, including win, place, show, exactas, and daily doubles. For bets that require a sequence of winners (e.g., pick 3s or pick 6s), use the numbers to evaluate whether to play based on pool size vs. likely amount of return. Let's look at a typical odds line, checking only whether anyone should be bet to win: My bet is C, even though he's only my third choice and I expect to lose this bet 80% of the time. If this race were run 100 times, I believe that A would win 33 and C only 20. On 100 $2 bets, A at 6-5 would return only $145.20 (33 x $4.40) for a loss of $54.80 while C at 8-1 would return $360 (20 x 18) for a profit of $160. And it's profit we're after. Our goal at the track is to make money, not just brag that we picked the winner. Here are two more races, with the recommended win bets: My play here is J, my first choice, even though he has the lowest odds in the field. I think he should be a stronger favorite. No one else is overlaid. In this race, two horses (R and U) are bettable. Y isn't 50% over the line (and has probably been lined out anyway). My top choice, T, is way overbet to...
