Food Dependency in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Foreword.- Introduction: A fragile region notable for its growing dependence on agricultural imports.- Chapter 1: Determinants of the growing food dependence (1961-2011).- 1. Food and agricultural demand: growing and changing in nature.- 2. Growth in agricultural production: limited by constraints affecting production factors.- 3. Growing need of agricultural imports.- 4. Imbalance between supply and demand: uncertainties for the future.- Chapter 2: By 2050, a possible strengthening of the regional dependence on agricultural imports.- 1. In 2050, the need for land would still exceed availability.- 2. Growing recourse to agricultural imports.- 3. Agricultural labour productivity could deteriorate.- 4. By 2050, strengthening of import dependence, notably in case of accentuated effects of climate change.- Chapter 3: Brakes and levers to reduce the dependence on imports in the Middle East-North Africa region.- 1. Alternative hypotheses on food consumption oftenlead to increased imports.- 2. Hypotheses for more favourable development of domestic supply.- 3. The effects of halving losses and waste in agricultural products.- 4. Which levers for reducing import dependence of the Middle East-North Africa region?.- Conclusion.- Bibliography.- Annex 1: The GlobAgri-Pluriagri model and database.- Annex 2: The composition of the 36 products and 17 geographical zones in GlobAgri-Pluriagri.