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The #1 best-selling guide to business valuation, newly updated and revised
Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies has been the gold standard in measuring and managing company value for more than 30 years. Now in its eighth edition, this acclaimed volume continues to help corporate executives, bankers, students, and other financial professionals around the world gain a deep understanding of valuation as well as allow their companies to create and maximize economic value.
Called "the best practitioners' guide to valuation" by The Financial Times and "the most influential contemporary books about the world economy" by The Economist, the newly revised eighth McKinsey's long tradition of excellence. In the book, a team of veteran McKinsey & Company professionals walk you through the foundations of valuation, advanced topics like valuing high-growth companies and digital assets, and managerial topics such as corporate portfolio strategy and acquisitions. You'll also discover:
McKinsey & Company has been helping businesses, governments, non-profit organizations and other institutions grow and thrive for almost 100 years . Valuation's authors draw on that storied history to bring you the most relevant, accurate, intuitive, and practical guide to valuation on the market today.
TIM KOLLER is a McKinsey partner and founder of McKinsey's Strategy and Corporate Finance Insights team. In his 40 years of consulting, he has served clients globally on corporate strategy and capital markets, acquisitions and divestitures, and resource allocation.
MARC GOEDHART is a senior expert in McKinsey's Strategy and Corporate Finance practice and an endowed professor of corporate valuation at Rotterdam School of Management (RSM), Erasmus University.
DAVID WESSELS is an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He was named by Bloomberg Businessweek as one of America's top business school instructors.
MCKINSEY & COMPANY is a global management consulting firm. McKinsey combines bold strategies and transformative technologies to help organizations innovate and achieve lasting gains in performance.
About the Authors ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Part One Foundations of Value
1 Why Value Value? 3
2 Finance in a Nutshell 13
3 Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 23
4 Risk and the Opportunity Cost of Capital 49
5 The Alchemy of Stock Market Performance 63
6 The Stock Market and Economic Fundamentals 77
7 The Stock Market Is Smarter Than You Think 97
8 Return on Invested Capital 117
9 Growth 147
Part Two Core Valuation Techniques
10 Frameworks for Valuation 171
11 Reorganizing the Financial Statements 201
12 Analyzing Performance 235
13 Forecasting Performance 255
14 Estimating Continuing Value 283
15 Estimating the Cost of Capital 303
16 Moving from Enterprise Value to Value per Share 333
17 Analyzing the Results 355
18 Using Multiples 365
19 Valuation by Parts 385
Part Three Advanced Valuation Techniques
20 Taxes 407
21 Nonoperating Items, Provisions, and Reserves 423
22 Leases 439
23 Retirement Obligations 455
24 Measuring Performance in Capital-Light Businesses 465
25 CFROI and Other Ways to Measure Return on Capital 481
26 Inflation 491
27 Cross-Border Valuation 511
Part Four Managing for Value
28 Corporate Portfolio Strategy 531
29 Strategic Management: Analytics 551
30 Strategic Management: Governance, Processes, and Decision Making 573
31 Mergers and Acquisitions 589
32 Divestitures 617
33 Digital Initiatives and Companies 633
34 Sustainability 653
35 Capital Structure, Dividends, and Share Repurchases 671
36 Investor Communications 703
Part Five Special Situations
37 Leveraged Buyouts 729
38 Venture Capital 749
39 High-Growth Companies 763
40 Flexibility and Options 779
41 Emerging Markets 815
42 Cyclical Companies 833
43 Banks 843
Appendix A Discounted Economic Profit Equals Discounted Free Cash Flow 865
Appendix B Derivation of Free Cash Flow, Weighted Average Cost of Capital, and Adjusted Present Value 869
Appendix C Levering and Unlevering the Cost of Equity 875
Appendix D Leverage and the Price-to-Earnings Multiple 883
Appendix E Other Capital Structure Issues 887
Appendix F Technical Issues in Estimating the Market Risk Premium 891
Appendix G Global, International, and Local CAPM 895
Appendix H Two-Stage Formula for Continuing Value 903
Appendix I A Valuation of Costco Wholesale 905
Index 931
No book is solely the effort of its authors. This book is certainly no exception, especially since it grew out of the collective work of McKinsey's Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice and the experiences of its consultants throughout the world.
Most important, we would like to thank the late Tom Copeland and Jack Murrin, two of the coauthors of the first three editions of this book. We are deeply indebted to them for establishing the book's early success, for mentoring the current authors, and for their hard work in providing the foundations on which this edition builds.
Ennius Bergsma deserves our special thanks. Ennius initiated the development of McKinsey's Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice in the mid-1980s. He inspired the original internal McKinsey valuation handbook and mustered the support and sponsorship to turn that handbook into a real book for an external audience.
Connor Guy, our lead editor, ensured that our ideas were expressed clearly and concisely. Jonathon Berlin and his team edited and oversaw the production of more than 400 exhibits, ensuring that they were carefully aligned with the text. Karen Schenkenfelder provided careful editing and feedback throughout the process. We are indebted to her excellent eye for detail.
The intellectual origins of this book lie in the present-value method of capital budgeting and in the valuation approach developed by Nobel laureates Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani in their 1961 Journal of Business article titled "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares." Others have gone far to popularize their approach. In particular, Professor Alfred Rappaport (Northwestern University, professor emeritus) and the late Joel Stern (Stern Stewart & Co.) were among the first to extend the Miller-Modigliani enterprise valuation formula to real-world applications.
We would like to acknowledge those who have personally shaped our careers and knowledge of valuation, corporate finance, and strategy. For their support, teachings, and inspiration, we thank Buford Alexander, Tony Bernardo, Chris Bradley, Richard Dobbs, the late Mikel Dodd, Bernie Ferrari, Dick Foster, Martin Hirt, Bob Holthausen, Bill Huyett, Rob Kazanjian, John Kelleher, Dan Lovallo, Michael Gibbons, Ofer Nemirovsky, Eduardo Schwartz, Chandan Sengupta, Sven Smit, the late Jaap Spronk, the late Joel Stern, Bennett Stewart, Robert Uhlaner, Sunil Wahal, Ivo Welch, and Loek Zonnenberg.
Tim and Marc are founders of McKinsey's Strategy & Corporate Finance Insights team, a group of dedicated corporate-finance experts who influence our thinking every day. A special thank-you to Bernie Ferrari, who initiated the group and nurtured its development, and to the earliest members of the team who stuck with it and became its leaders, including Susan Nolen Foushee, Jean-Hugues Monier, and Werner Rehm. Other leaders we are indebted to include Haripreet Batra, Alok Bothra, Josue Calderon, Marc de Jong, Dago Diedrich, Prateek Gakhar, Abhishek Goel, Anuj Gupta, Chetan Gupta, Peeyush Karnani, Tarun Khurana, David Kohn, Ankit Mittal, Chris Mulligan, Siddharth Periwal, Abhishek Saxena, and Zane Williams.
We wish to thank the following colleagues, who coauthored or provided analytical support to individual chapters:
We extend thanks also to the Capabilities and Insights team, led by Rosen Kotsev. The team, which helped significantly in preparing analyses for us, includes Rafael Araya, Roerich Bansal, Satvik Bansal, Martin Barboza, Aya Benlakhder, Margarida Carrasqueira, Pedro Catarino, Abhranil Das, Carlo Eyzaguirre, Igor Ferreira, Jyotsna Goel, Gaukhar Janburshina, Raghav Kapur, Dilpreet Kaur, Kumari Monika, Carolina Oreamuno, Victor Rojas, Sapna Sharma, José Afonso Silva, Isaac Silvestre, and Ricardo Solis Arley. Other consultants who contributed include Andre Gaeta, Paulo Guimaraes, Daniel Guzman, and Martin Perez.
We've made extensive use of McKinsey Value Intelligence (MVI), led by Peter Stumpner and Vartika Gupta, which provided data and analyses in this book. MVI is a large curated database of company financial information, which includes both raw data and synthesized insights. Dick Foster, a former McKinsey colleague and mentor, inspired the development of McKinsey Value Intelligence.
Michael Cichello, professor of finance at the Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland, expertly prepared the teaching materials that accompany this book, including the syllabus, end-of-chapter problems and answers for the university edition, and exam questions and answers. These teaching materials are an essential supplement for professors and students using this book for finance courses. Thank you to our Capabilities and Insights team for their help in preparing and answering questions for these materials.
Of course, we could not have devoted the time and energy to this book without the support and encouragement of McKinsey's Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice leadership, particularly Michael Birshan and Andy West. Also, Raju Narisetti and Lucia Rahilly ensured that we received superior editorial support from McKinsey's external publishing team. Thanks also to Sneha Vats, Ramya DRozario, and their team, who facilitated the approvals process for mentions of specific company names.
We would like to thank again all those who contributed to the first seven editions. We owe a special debt to Dave Furer for help and late nights developing the original drafts of this book more than 35 years ago. Bill Javetski was our rigorous thought partner and editor for the fourth through seventh editions, honing our writing skills. Dennis Swinford edited and managed the more than 300 exhibits in those editions. The first seven editions and this edition drew upon work, ideas, and analyses from Carlos Abad, Paul Adam, Ashish Kumar Agarwal, Buford Alexander, Petri Allas, Alexandre Amson, André Annema, the late Pat Anslinger, Vladimir Antikarov, Ali Asghar, Bill Barnett, Dan Bergman, Olivier Berlage, Peter Bisson, the late Joel Bleeke, Bing Cao, Nidhi Chadda, Carrie Chen, Steve Coley, Kevin Coyne, Bas Deelder, Marco de Heer, Johan Depraetere, Marijn de Wit, Pieter de Wit, the late Mikel Dodd, Lee Dranikoff, Will Draper, David Ernst, Bill Fallon, George Fenn, Susan Nolen Foushee, Russ Fradin, Gabriel Garcia, Richard Gerards, Alo Ghosh, Irina Grigorenko, Fredrik Gustavsson, Keiko Honda, Alice Hu, Régis Huc, Ritesh Jain, Mimi James, Mauricio Jaramillo, Bin Jiang, Chris Jones, William Jones, Mary Beth Joyce, Phil Keenan, Phil Kholos, David Krieger, Shyanjaw Kuo, Michael Kuritzky, Bill Lewis, Kurt Losert, Harry Markl, Yuri Maslov, Perry Moilinoff, Fabienne Moimaux, Jean-Hugues Monier, Mike Murray, Terence Nahar, Rafic Naja, Juan Ocampo, Martijn Olthof, Neha Patel, Vijen Patel, John Patience, Bill Pursche, Rishi Raj, S. R. Rajan, Werner Rehm, Frank Richter, Eileen Kelly Rinaudo, David Rothschild, Michael Rudolf, Yasser Salem, Antoon Schneider, Ram Sekar, Meg Smoot, Silvia Stefini, Konrad Stiglbrunner, Saravanan Subramanian, Ahmed Taha, Bill Trent, David Twiddy, Valerie Udale, Sandeep Vaswani, Kim Vogel, Christian von Drathen, Jon Weiner, Jack Welch, Gustavo Wigman, David Willensky, Zane Williams, Jonathan Witter, David Wright, Yan Yang, and Angela Zhang.
For help in coordinating the flow of Zoom meetings, e-mail, and phone calls, we owe our thanks to our assistants, Kate Anderson and Zofia Wisniewska.
We also extend thanks to the team at John Wiley & Sons, including Bill Falloon, Susan Cerra, Katherine Cording, Steve Kyritz, Jean-Karl Martin, and Tom Nery.
Finally, thank you to Melissa Koller, Monique Donders, Kate Wessels, and our children: Katherine, Emily, and Juliana Koller; Max, Julia, and Sarah Goedhart; and Adin, Aurora, Jacob, Lillia, and Nathaniel Wessels. Our wives and families are our true inspirations. This book would not have been possible without...
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