Human Judgement and Decision Processes

Contributors Preface Acknowledgments1. Public Values: Multiattribute-Utility Measurement for Social Decision Making Introduction The State of the Art in Land-Use Regulation An Overview of Decision Analysis as it Applies to Planning and Evaluation Outcome Evaluation Using Multiattribute-Utility Measurement A Simple Multiattribute-Rating Technique (SMART) The Case Study A Public Technology for Land-Use Management References 2. Decision Processes in Recognition Memory Decision and Memory: A Hypothetical Mechanism for the Influence of Semantic Memory on Episodic Recognition- Memory Tasks The Decision Model: Evidence from Experiments on the Recognition of Words and Names The Decision Model: Evidence from Experiments on the Recognition of Word Strings and Sentences Relationships between the Decision Model and Other Views of Memory Conclusions References 3. Portfolio Theory and the Measurement of Risk Introduction A Theory of Risk Preference The Measurement of Risk Discussion and Interpretation Appendix References 4. Formal Models of Dilemmas in Social Decision Making Introduction Social Dilemma: A Formal Definition The Commons Dilemma References 5. An Information-Integration Analysis of Risky Decision Making Introduction Information-Integration Theory Multiplying Model Adding Model Discussion References 6. Information Integration in Social Judgment: Interaction of Judge and Informational Components Introduction The Basic Model The Judge in Social Judgment Interaction of Judge and Informational Variables Concluding Comments References 7. Integrating Verbal Information: The Referential-Communication Paradigm Introduction Related Work Redundancy and Communication Ensemble Size and Communication Concluding Remarks References 8. Judgment and Decision Processes in the Formation and Change of Social Attitudes Introduction An Overview of the System Phase 1: Processing Information about Alternative Positions on an Issue Phase 2: Choosing among Alternative Positions Phase 3: Describing Oneself on Attitude-Related Variables Phase 4: Attitude Change and Judgmental Change Conclusion References 9. The Role of Probabilistic and Syllogistic Reasoning in Cognitive Organization and Social Inference Introduction The Nature of Cognitions Tests of Subjective-Probability Models of Social Inference Implications of a Syllogistic Model of Cognitive Functioning The Contribution of Nonlogical Factors to Inference Phenomena Concluding Remarks References Why is Judgment Required? Basic Concepts Quantitative Method Discussion of Unique Contributions in Four Cases Summary References Author Index Subject Index