War, Bond Prices, and Public Opinion

Name: War, Bond Prices, and Public Opinion | How Did the Amsterdam Bond Market Perceive the Belligerents' War Effort During World War One?
Brand: Mohr Siebeck
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How Did the Amsterdam Bond Market Perceive the Belligerents' War Effort During World War One?

Tobias A. Jopp(Autor*in)

Mohr Siebeck (Verlag)

1. Auflage

Erschienen im März 2021

XVIII, 317 Seiten

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978-3-16-159537-0 (ISBN)

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Inhalt

Cover
Title
Preface
Table of contents
List of tables
List of figures
List of abbreviations
I. Introduction
1. World War One as a study object of the economic historian
2. The war and sources on how it was perceived by the public
3. Capital market data as an alternative indicator of perception
3.1. Bond prices - how new an indicator?
3.2. What do bond prices say?
3.3. Agnostic event analysis
3.4. Pros and cons of the "capital market data approach to perception"
4. Study design
4.1. Research questions
4.2. Why Amsterdam?
4.3. Structure of the study
4.4. Placing the study
II. Historical background, sources, and data
1. The Netherlands and World War One
2. Sources on sovereign bonds traded in Amsterdam
2.1. Amsterdam bond prices
2.2. Additional bond price and miscellaneous data
3. Description of the created sovereign bond database
3.1. The Amsterdam cross-section of sovereign bonds
3.2. Market price indices and liquidity
3.3. Representative bonds versus country indices
3.4. Comparative market development and cross-trading
4. Potential and limitations of the database
4.1. Time frame
4.2. Price formation
4.3. Capital market regulation
4.4. Who were the investors?
III. Turning points in the perception of the Great Powers' war effort
1. The problem
2. Which breaks have been detected so far?
3. How timetable analysis can help
4. Data selection
5. Empirical findings
5.1. Shifting mean regressions as the technical point of departure
5.2. Turning points in investors' perception at a glance
5.3. Explaining turning points in the major powers' series
5.4. Explaining turning points in the minor powers' series
6. Checking for the turning points' robustness
6.1. Including economic variables
6.2. Results of the robustness check
7. Discussion
7.1. Turning points versus blips - the example of Germany
7.2. Agnostic turning points versus turning points "informed by historiography"
7.3. Simple sovereign bonds-based perception indices
IV. Perception of alliance credibility
1. The problem
2. Alliance formation before and during the war
2.1. The various alliances at a glance
2.2. Measuring the alliances' strength
3. Alliance credibility
4. Data selection
5. Empirical findings on a "global" test
5.1. Starting from a simple approximation of co-movement - correlation coefficients
5.2. Do we find cointegrating relationships?
6. Empirical findings on a "sub-periods" test
6.1. Correlation coefficients once more
6.2. Was perceived credibility unstable?
7. Discussion
7.1. Measuring the degree of alliance integration
7.2. What can Granger-causality tell?
V. Conclusions
1. Turning points summary
2. Have historians missed out on major events?
3. Alliance perception summary
4. Outlook
List of sources and references
Primary sources - Dutch historical newspapers/journals/handbooks/laws
Primary sources - contemporary monographs/articles up until 1924
Secondary literature
Online Appendix
Index

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