Capital Flows, Credit Markets and Growth in South Africa

1 Introduction.- Part I Global Economic Growth, Economic Policy Uncertainty and The Influence of Trade Dynamics.- 2 Is BRICS GDP Growth a Source of Shocks or an Amplifier of Global Growth Responses? What Are the Policy Implications for South Africa?.- 3 Does the Trade-Openness Channel Impact the Effects of Business Confidence Shocks on Investment Growth?.- 4 Trade-Openness, Consumer Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks.- 5 Global Growth and Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock Effects on the South African Economy: Do These Reinforce Each Other?.- 6. Heightened Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock Effects on the South African Economy: Transmission via Capital Flows, Credit Conditions and Business Confidence Channels.- Part II Global Policy Rates and The South African Economy.- 7 In Which Direction Is There a Momentum Effect in the Changes in the Spread Between the Repo Rate and Federal Funds Rate?.- 8 How Do Global Real Policy Rates Impact the South African GDP Growth and Labour Market Conditions?.- 9 To What Extent Do Capital Inflows Impact the Response of the South African Economic Growth to Positive SA-US Interest Rate Differential Shocks?.- Part III Capital Flow Surges, Sudden Stops and Elevated Portfolio Inflows Volatility Effects.- 10 Economic Costs of Capital Flow Episodes in South Africa.- 11 Capital Flow Surges, Sudden Stops and Elevated Portfolio Inflow Volatility Shocks: What is the Nature of Their Interaction with GDP Growth and Credit?.- 12 Bank and Non-bank Capital Flows and The Sectorial Reallocation of Credit Away from the Household Sector.- 13 Banking and Non-banking Capital Flows and The Sectorial Reallocation of Credit Away from Companies.- 14 Equity, Debt Inflows and the Price Stability Mandate.- 15 Do Local Investors Play a Stabilising Role Relative to Foreign Investors After Economic Shocks?.- 16 Do Investors' Net Purchases and Capital Retrenchment Activities Impact the Monetary Policy Response to Positive Inflation Shocks?.- Part IV The Transmission of Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Downgrades and Upgrades into the Credit Markets and the Real Economy.- 17 What Role Does Business Confidence Play in Transmitting Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Upgrades and Downgrades Shocks into the Real Economy?.- 18 Are Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Shocks Transmitted Via Economic Growth to Impact Credit Growth?.- 19 Does the Cost of Government Borrowing Transmit Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Downgrades Shocks to Credit Growth?.- Part V The Output-Inflation Trade-off, External Shocks, Labour Market Conditions and Inflation Expectations.- 20 The Output-gap, Nominal Wage and Consumer Price Inflation Volatility Trade-off.- 21 The Output-Gap and Inflation Volatility Trade-off: Do External Shocks and Inflation Expectations Shift the Taylor Curve.- 22 Do Adverse Global Trade Shocks Impact the Trade-off Between the Inflation and Output-Gap Volatilities.- 23 Do the Labour Market Conditions Shocks Impact the Trade-off Between the Inflation and Output-Gap Volatilities?.- Part VI The Policy Ineffectiveness Issues.- 24 The Output Gap-Inflation Trade-off and the Policy Ineffectiveness.- 25 Inflation Regimes and the Transmission of Positive Nominal Demand Shocks to the Price Level