Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

Rezensionen / Stimmen

"A series of compelling demonstrations that counterfactual history need not be a 'parlour game.' If we carefully assemble the facts and honestly lay out our assumptions, we can apply sophisticated statistical tools that yield deep insights into key 20th century conflicts-and how they might have played out differently."
- Phil Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania

"Well-written, concise prose, ground-breaking approach to using counterfactuals in historical analysis. Points out that counterfactual analysis is inherent in almost all investigations of causal relationships (laying out an explanation for why something happened almost always implies reasons why something else didn't happen - this is quite compelling). This sort of strong defense of counterfactuals could go a long way towards 'normalizing' the method, convincing others that this isn't just the realm of alternative history/Harry Turtledove novels. This book lays the groundwork for future work."
- Matthew Tattar, U.S. Naval War College

"The counterfactual terminology used in the book reminds but does not coincide with ideas and methodologies of the statistical causality analysis, potential outcomes, and counterfactual modeling. The presented analysis is rather similar to considerations often made after chess competitions by contemplating what could happen if one or another grandmaster would prefer each different movement. The book can be interesting for reading on history in a broader frame of comparison with other options which could occur in slightly diverse settings."

Stan Lipovetsky, Minneapolis, USA, Technometrics, May 2024.

"This book offers a compelling exploration of how statistical and mathematical techniques can be applied to analyze key events in military history. It successfully argues for the legitimacy of counterfactual analysis as a tool for historians, military leaders, and analysts interested in understanding the complexities of historical decision making." - Lt. Col. Amanda Gustave, USAF.