Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice

Name: Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice
Brand: Princeton University Press
Price: 73.49 EUR
Availability: OnlineOnly

Larry M. Bartels(Autor*in)

Princeton University Press

1. Auflage

Erschienen am 8. Dezember 2020

400 Seiten

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978-0-691-22190-8 (ISBN)

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Inhalt

Cover Page
Half-title Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication Page
Contents
List of Illustrations
List of Tables
Preface
Part I: The Notion of Momentum
1. The Nominating Process
1.1 The Process in Outline
1.2 Some Basic Issues
1.3 A Look Ahead
2. From Back Rooms to "Big Mo
2.1 The Old System
2.2 Upheaval and Reform
2.3 The Emergence of Momentum
Part II: The Nature of Momentum
3. The Campaign as Horse Race
3.1 Patterns of Horse Race Coverage
3.2 The Audience Reaction
3.3 Horse Race Perceptions and Reality
4. Learning and Uncertainty
4.1 Learning, the Media, and the Horse Race
4.2 The Nature of Uncertainty
4.3 The Effects of Uncertainty
5. Politics in the Campaign
5.1 Political Predispositions
5.2 Political Activation
5.3 Issue Perceptions and Reality
6. Expectations and Choice
6.1 Varieties of Momentum
6.2 How Expectations Matter
6.3 Why Expectations Matter
Part III: The Impact Of Momentum
7. Public Opinion and Primary Voting
7.1 Primary Voters
7.2 National and Local Forces
7.3 A Typology of Primary Campaigns
8. Momentum Triumphant: The Case of Jimmy Carter
8.1 How Carter Won
8.2 Political Substance and Strategy
8.3 What Might Have Been
9. Trench Warfare: The Reagan and Kennedy Challenges
9.1 Reagan versus Ford
9.2 Kennedy versus Carter
9.3 Momentum as a Double-Edged Sword
10. Coming up Short: George Bush and Gary Hart
10.1 Bush versus Reagan
10.2 Hart versus Mondale
10.3 How to Start a Brush Fire (And How to Stop One)
Part IV: The Import of Momentum
11. The Primary Season as "Caucus-Race
11.1 "All the Party Were Placed Along the Course
11.2 "The Exact Shape Doesn't Matter
11.3 "But Who Has Won?
12. The Dynamics of Public Choice
12.1 The Classical Theory of Public Choice
12.2 A Crucial Limitation of the Classical Theory
12.3 Liberal Democracy in a Dynamic World
Appendixes
A. Data
A.1 Media Content
A.2 Survey Data
A3 Measuring Chances
A.4 State-level Data
B. Models
B.1 A Threshold Model of Familiarity
B.2 Issue Perceptions
B.3 Candidate Choice
B.4 Individual Behavior and Primary Outcomes
C. Statistical Results
C.1 Expectations
C.2 Familiarity
C.3 Predispositions
C.4 Issue Perceptions
C.5 Candidate Evaluations and Choice
C.6 Primary Outcomes
References
Index

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