Introduction: The Winter of Our Disconnect.
I. HOW WE GOT TO THE YEAR 2000.
1. A Brief Primer on the Year 2000 (Y2K) Problem.
What Does It All Mean? Hardware. Software. Data. Embedded Control Systems. What Is the Year 2000 Problem? The Actual Extent of Y2K Problems. Where Y2K Problems Occur. How Widespread Is the Y2K Problem? Our Response to Date. Status of the U.S. Federal Government. Status of U.S. Industry. Status of the Rest of the World. Is There a Solution for Year 2000 Problems? The Y2K Remediation Process. Repairing Y2K Problems. Challenges. What Are the Likely Consequences of Y2K? Impact on Economic Sectors. Time of Impact. So, What Should We Do?
2. How We Got Here, or, All Our Sins Remembered.
For the Want of Two Digits. Moore's Law. All Our Systems Remembered. Speeding in Tongues. Code Bloat, Code Bloat, Code Bloat. The Perils of Adequacy. The Resistance of Vision. All Our Sins Remembered.
3. The Roadblocks to Fixing Y2K.
How to Fix Y2K Problems. Inventory: How Many Systems Are There? Assessment: How Bad Is It? Repair: What Do We Do with the Problems? Testing: Does It Work Now? Integration: Will Everything Work Together? Contingency Planning: What If Things Still Don't Work? What Keeps Us from Fixing Y2K Problems More Quickly. Understanding the Problem. Working Together. Managing the Process. Finding the People. Getting Outside Help. Dealing with Legacy Systems. Finding the Problems. Fixing the Problems. Verifying the Fixes. Making It All Work. Planning for Problems. Dealing with Lawyers and Customers. Yes, Y2K Remediation Is Hard.
4. Myths, Facts, and Opinions About Y2K.
The Top Ten Myths of Y2K. The Five Most Important Facts To Know About Y2K. Three Personal Opinions about Y2K.
II. THE COMING FALL: GETTING READY.
5. Understanding What's Important.
The Three Challenges of Y2K Preparation. Enmeshed in Complexity. The Hazards of Humanity. A Downpour, Not a Drip. Step 1: Examining Your Assumptions. Determining Priorities. Reviewing Commitments. Determining Relevant (and Irrelevant) Y2K Events. Step 2: Mapping Out Your Strategy. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigation. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Step 3: Plotting Your Tactics. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling others.
6. Education: Things You Need to Know.
How to Become a Y2K Expert in Your Spare Time. Dig Out Information. Consider the Source. Track How Things are Going. Ask Questions. More Things You Should Know. Impact of Y2K on Education. Education: Your Plan of Action. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigations. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling Others. Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
7. Health and Fitness: Be Active and Proactive.
Getting Physical. Time to Stop Procrastinating. Taking Care of Prescriptions and Medical Supplies. Dealing with Chronic or Critical Medical Problems. Health and Fitness: Plan of Action. Educating Yourself. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigations. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling Others. Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
8. Home and Hearth: Make a List, Check It Twice.
External Feeds. Electricity. Water. Phone: Local, Long Distance, and Mobile. Natural Gas. Television and Radio. Internet. Deliveries and Pickups. Oil, Coal, and Wood. Trash and Sewage. Mail and Delivery Services. Household Y2K Remediation. Home Appliances and Electronics. Personal Computers. Transportation. Home and Hearth: Plan of Action. Educating Yourself. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigations. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling Others. Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
9. Food and Supplies: Your Daily Bread, and More.
How Y2K Might Show Up in Your Pantry. Storing Food: Issues and Challenges. Planning. Finances. Storage Space. Climate and Preservation. Food Preparation. Shortages. Other Things to Store. Bathroom Supplies, Personal Hygiene, and Grooming. Laundry and Kitchen Supplies. Clothing. The 90% Solution Putting Together a 72-Hour Plan. Food and Supplies: Plan of Action. Educating Yourself. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigations. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling Others. Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
10. Work: Nine to Five in 2000.
Potential Y2K Impacts on Employment. Determining Your Employer's Y2K Status. General Approach to Snooping Around. Internal Applications and Infrastructure. Internal Operations, Staffing, and Business Processes. External Interfaces, Partners, Customers. External Supply Chain. External Infrastructure. Legal, Liability, and Market Issues. Making the Evaluation. Job Moves and Career Plans. Y2K and You. What to Do. Work: Plan of Action. Educating Yourself. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigations. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling Others. Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
11. Money and Law: Keeping Yourself Whole and Well Documented.
Y2K and the Economy. The Complexities of Life. Risks to Your Income and Assets. Risks Due to Outflow and Debts. Losing Your Identity. Defending Your Life. Documenting Your Universe. Reducing Your Outflow and Debts. Protecting Your Income and Assets. Money and Law: Plan of Action. Educating Yourself. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigations. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling Others. Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
12. Family, Community, Nation: What Really Matters.
Nation: Cohesion Rather than Separation. Social Cohesion and National Leadership. Social Cohesion vs. Survivalism. The Argument for Social Cohesion. Community: Familiarity Rather than Isolation. Family: Unity Rather than Division. Family, Community, Nation: Plan of Action. Educating Yourself. Identifying Risks and Corresponding Mitigations. Looking for Opportunities. Establishing Guiding Principles. Determining What You Need. Creating the Plan. Enrolling Others. Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
III. THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONNECT: GETTING THROUGH.
13. Bracing for Impact.
Tracking the Storm. Why the Future Remains Hard to Predict: A Reminder. Revising Your Approach. Acting Preemptively. Responding to Y2K Events. Minimizing the Impact.
14. Forecasting the Storm.
Scenario Level 0: Just Kidding. Scenario Level 1: A Bump in the Road Ahead. Scenario Level 2: Well, Maybe a Large Pothole. Scenario Level 3: The Dow Drops Some More. Scenario Level 4: It's The Economy, Stupid. Scenario Level 5: The 1982 Recession, Revisited. Scenario Level 6: Make That the 1973 Recession. Scenario Level 7: Things Get Worse. Scenario Level 8: Brother, Can You Spare a Dime? Scenario Level 9: Welcome to The Third World. Scenario Level 10: It Can't Happen Here. Building Your Own Scenarios. Concluding Thoughts.
IV. HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL: GETTING UP OFF THE GROUND.
15. Taking Stock, Setting Direction, Moving On.
Taking Stock. Current Status. Pressing Needs. Risks, Opportunities, and Issues. Setting Direction. Reviewing Priorities. Reviewing Commitments. Looking Ahead. Moving On. Post-Y2K JumpStart. Tips and Traps. Closing Thoughts.
16. Lessons Learned.
Lesson 1: Quality Counts; It Also Pays Off. Lesson 2: You Can Pay Now, or You Can Pay Later with Interest and Penalty. Lesson 3: Details Matter. Lesson 4: Small Causes Can Yield Large Effects. Lesson 5: Community Counts More Than Technology. Lesson 6: Most Technical Failures Are Rooted in Human Failings. Lesson 7: We're Not Done Yet. Closing Thoughts.
EPILOGUE: THE ENDLESS MILLENNIAL SUMMER?
A. Testimony Before Congress.
Submitted to the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology Hearing on "Year 2000: Biggest Problems, Proposed Solutions," U.S. House of Representatives, June 22, 1998. Submitted to the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Committee on Education and the Workforce, U.S. House of Representatives, September 17, 1998. Submitted to the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, U.S. House of Representatives, September 29, 1998.
B. Two Surveys of the Membership of the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group on the Impact of Y2K in the United States.
The Surveys. The Results. Analysis and Observations. Conclusions. Text of Year 2000 Impact Survey. Comments from Survey Respondents. Level 0: No Impact. Level 1: Local Impact for Some Enterprises. Level 2: Significant Impact for Many Enterprises. Level 3: Significant Market Adjustment (20%+ drop); Some Bankruptcies. Level 4: Economic Slowdown; Rise in Unemployment; Isolated Social Incidents. Level 5: Mild Recession; Isolated Supply/Infrastructure Problems; Runs on Banks. Level 6: Strong Recession; Local Social Disruptions; Many Bankruptcies. Level 7: Political Crises; Regional Supply/Infrastructure Problems and Social Disruptions. Level 8: Depression; Infrastructure Crippled; Markets Collapse; Local Martial Law. Level 9: Supply/Infrastructure Collapse; Widespread Social Disruptions and Martial Law. Level 10: Collapse of U.S. Government; Possible Famine. Other Responses.
C. Resources.
Web Sites. News clippings. Y2K Bookmark Sites. Y2K Commentary and Analysis. Government. Specific Topics. Humor. Books. Closing Thoughts.
Appendix D.
