How Civil Wars Start

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A leading political scientist sounds the alarm on the increasing likelihood of a second civil war in the United States—and shows how to stop it before it’s too late.

“Required reading for anyone invested in preserving our 246-year experiment in self-government.”—The New York Times Book Review (Editors’ Choice)

WINNER OF THE GLOBAL POLICY INSTITUTE AWARD • THE SUNDAY TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR • ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR: Financial Times, The Times (UK), Esquire, Prospect (UK)

A civil war today won’t look like America in the 1860s, Russia in the 1920s, or Spain in the 1930s. It will begin with sporadic acts of violence and terror, accelerated by social media. It will sneak up on us and leave us wondering how we could have been so blind. In this urgent and insightful book, Barbara F. Walter redefines civil war for a new age, providing the framework we need to confront the danger we now face.

Walter has spent her career studying civil conflict in places like Iraq, Ukraine, and Sri Lanka, but she has become increasingly worried about the United States. As political violence rips apart several towns in southwest Texas, a far-right militia plots to kidnap the governor of Michigan and try her for treason, and an armed mob of Trump supporters and conspiracy theorists storms the U.S. Capitol, Walter asks: Are these isolated incidents? Or is this the start of something bigger?

Over the last two decades, the number of active civil wars around the world has almost doubled. Drawing on the latest international research and lessons from over twenty countries, Walter identifies the crucial risk factors, from democratic backsliding to factionalization and the politics of resentment. She also reveals the warning signs—where wars tend to start, who initiates them, what triggers them—and why some countries tip over into conflict while others remain stable.

Perhaps surprisingly, both autocracies and healthy democracies are largely immune from civil war; it’s the countries in the middle ground that are most vulnerable. And this is where more and more countries, including the United States, are finding themselves today.