A highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques.
Rezensionen / Stimmen
In Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, the Phersons have provided an invaluable road map for anyone seeking to improve the ability to conceptualize, research, and write compelling analysis. It stands apart from other literature in making a persuasive case for critical thinking up front to pave the way for clarity of message and rigor in argumentation. It is simply a must-read for any serious student of intelligence analysis. -- Fran Moore * Blurb * Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is the go-to book for current and aspiring intelligence analysts. -- John Comiskey * Review * No one has given more thought to the improvement and the teaching of analytic techniques than Kathy and Randy Pherson. The fourth edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is a welcome update of their now-must-have book. Dealing with an increasing flow of incoming information and creating from that well-written, thoughtful analysis is a daunting challenge. This book is well organized, extremely accessible, and profusely illustrated with useful figures. It will continue to benefit analysts-in all fields, not just intelligence-as well as managers of analysts and those who teach courses on analysis. -- Mark Lowenthal * Blurb * Kathy and Randy Pherson artfully weave together scholarship and experience in this update to their foundational work. The book reveals-not answers-something much more important: how to ask questions. It provides readers the skills they need to navigate the ocean of the often-conflicting, irrelevant, and incorrect information in which we all live today. -- Alan Wade * Blurb * The fourth edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence provides significant updates and remains a "must have" for any student of the nature and process of effective intelligence analysis. Highly recommended for the classroom, for those new to the profession of intelligence research and analysis and for anyone seeking to produce more effect reports and presentations. -- Gregory Moore * Review * Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is an effective compliment to methods literature. The book's perspective on communicating persuasively defines important objectives that need to be accomplished in research designs. -- Charles Mitchell * Review *
Auflage
Sprache
Verlagsort
Verlagsgruppe
Sage Publications Inc Ebooks
Zielgruppe
Für höhere Schule und Studium
Editions-Typ
Maße
Höhe: 228 mm
Breite: 152 mm
ISBN-13
978-1-0719-0228-8 (9781071902288)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Klassifikation
Katherine Hibbs Pherson, President of Globalytica, LLC, consults with government and private industry on building strong analytic communities, the use of structured analytic techniques, and security issues. She teaches certificate courses on structured thinking and presentation for the security association ASIS International and in the Intelligence Masters program at Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid, Spain. As Vice Chair of the Intelligence and National Security Association (INSA)'s Security Policy Reform Council, she was primary drafter of its white paper titled "Next Steps for Security Reform: Industry Proposals to Enhance Efficiency and Reduce Costs in National Security Contracts," which has generated a series of productive exchanges among government and industry.
Ms. Pherson is also Chief Executive Officer of Pherson Associates, LLC, and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, a nonprofit established in 2011 to promote the effective use of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques by teaching, certifying, and applying these skills in universities in the United States and Europe. She retired from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2000 after a twenty-seven-year career in intelligence and security analysis and resource management. Her leadership in the security arena led to the adoption of a risk management methodology, the strengthening of overseas security countermeasures, and improvements in dealing with unsolicited contacts. As head of the Director of Central Intelligence's Center for Security Evaluation, she managed the Intelligence Community's involvement in rebuilding the penetrated US Embassy in Moscow. She is a recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal
and the Intelligence Community's National Distinguished Service Medal. She received her AB from Vassar College, an MA in Spanish
linguistics and Latin American studies from the University of Illinois, and an MA in Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA's Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General's staff, and was chief of the CIA's Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.
List of Figures
Foreword
Preface
About the Authors
Introduction to the Fourth Edition
Introduction
Part I: How Do I Get Started?
Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part II: Where Is The Information I Need?
Chapter 7: How Do Models and Artificial Intelligence Help My Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part III: What Is My Argument?
Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 14: How Do I Present to Policymakers?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong-Or on the Doorstep of an Unmitigated Success?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 19: Am I Presenting My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Appendix A: Definitions of Biases and Traps
Appendix B: Definitions of Intuitive Traps
Part V: Case Studies
Case Study I: Uncharted Territory in the Arctic
Case Study II: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard!
Case Study III: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers?
Case Study IV: The Case of Iraq's Aluminum Tubes
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
Recommended Readings
US Government Publications
Index
