This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing examples of each method, and suggesting practical techniques to use in dealing with the issues and problems of accuracy in profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are examined within this framework. In addition to synthesizing the research, Professor Metcalfe has applied his own research work on forecast modeling and judgmental methods. The final result is a practical reference book for making more accurate profit forecasts.
Auflage
Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1995
Sprache
Verlagsort
Zielgruppe
Für Beruf und Forschung
Research
Illustrationen
Maße
Höhe: 235 mm
Breite: 155 mm
Dicke: 20 mm
Gewicht
ISBN-13
978-1-4613-5950-0 (9781461359500)
DOI
10.1007/978-1-4615-2255-3
Schweitzer Klassifikation
1. Reporting a Forecast.- Convincing Strategies.- The Report as Feedback.- Summary.- 2. Types of Evidence.- Multiple Methods.- Judgmental vs. Quantitative.- Theory.- Evidence.- Discourse.- Summary.- Aside.- 3. An Historical Classification.- Intuitive Methods.- Deductive Methods.- Induction Methods.- Activist Methods.- Imaginary Methods.- Conclusion.- 4. Group Forecasts.- Work Groups.- Group Motivation.- Group Compatibility.- 5. Question Instruments.- Organization.- The Questions.- Data Types.- Annual Profit Questionnaire.- Tests.- Internal and External Validity.- 6. Interviews.- Who to Interview.- The Interview.- Problems with Human Judgment.- The Backlash.- 7. Extrapolation.- Eyeballing.- Averaging.- Trend.- Differencing.- Exponential Smoothing.- Curve Fitting.- Regression against Time.- ARIMA.- Markov Chains.- Accuracy Measures.- Testing a Forecast.- Conclusions.- 8. Causal Models.- Regression.- Multiple Regression.- Other Methods.- Historic Model vs Forecast Model.- 9. Bootstrapping and Expert Systems.- Bootstrapping.- Expert Systems.- 10. Deterministic Models.- Building Deterministic Models.- 11. Eclectic Methods.- The One Big Model.- Weights?.- Information Gathering.- 12. Bankruptcy Forecasts.- Ratios or Bankruptcy?.- Research Method.- The Method and Statistics.- Other Research.- Conclusion.- Annotated Bibliography.- 13. Profit Forecasts.- Accuracy.- Analysts vs. Managers.- Predictors of Profit.- Share Market Information?.- Analytical Review.- Conclusion.- Annotated Bibliography.- 14. Disclosure.- The Signalling View.- Marketing the Manager.- Expectation Adjustment.- Agency Theory.- Institutional Theory.- Contingency Theory.- Some Empirical Evidence.- Conclusions.- 15. Evaluating a Forecast.- Change.- Acceptable.- Multiple Simple Methods.- Forecast Group.- Input Data.- Costs.- Conclusions.- References.
