Disequilibria, Economic Reforms and Economic Policies

Part 1 Introduction: brief retrospet of China's economic reforms; the purpose of the study; outline of the book. Part 2 Disequilibrium approaches to modelling socialist economies: disequilibrium economics and econometrics; basic approaches to modelling CPEs; some studies of the Chinese economy; the plan for this study. Part 3 Investment demand in the public-ownership economy - a game theory approach: investment demand's determinant 1 - contradiction between consumption and accumulation; investment demand's determinant 2 - conflicts between sectors for investment resources; the investment behaviour of local governments; investment demand and interest rates. Part 4 Econometric model of investment-production block and its estimation: structure of the model; specification of the behavioural equations in the model; disequilibrium indicators; estimation results. Appendix 4A: sources of data. Part 5 Consumption and savings: analytical framework; econometric model and estimation results; extension of the model. Part 6 Ex-post policy experiments: simulation results; summary and conclusions. Appendix 6A: simultion results. Part 7 Searching for a policy package of further market-oriented reforms: the amended model structure corresponding to the policy package of further reforms; the simulation results; model calibration and robustness of simulation results. Appendix 7A: policy simulations of Model 2 and Model 1. Appendix 7B: simulations of Model 2 with parameter perturbations. Appendix 7C: sensitivity elacticities. Part 8 Concluding remarks: summary and conclusions; tasks for the future.