International Negotiation Series, 6 (International Studies Library, 6) Attempts to negotiate peace agreements are frequently accompanied by terrorist attacks, political assassinations, and massacres. Why do peace talks sometimes fall apart as a result of violence, while belligerents at other times are brought to the negotiation table in the wake of violence? This book addresses this serious conundrum. Firmly anchored in theories on conflict resolution and negotiation, and drawing on empirical insights from Guatemala, Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, patterns of actions and responses in the aftermath of violence are analysed. The book uncovers some of the principal conditions explaining the influence of violence on these negotiation processes, and questions the common perception that violence always has a one-sided negative effect on peace processes. Table of Contents PART ONE VIOLENCE AND PEACE PROCESSES 1. Violence: An Impetus or Obstacle to Peace? 2. Fear of Peace, Fear of War PART TWO CASE STUDIES 3. Guatemala: Building Confidence after Violence a. Assassination of Jorge Carpio (July 3, 1993) b. Xaman Massacre (October 5, 1995) c.
Kidnapping of Olga de Novella (August 25, 1996) 4. Northern Ireland: Arms and the Problem of Trust a. Bombing of Canary Wharf, London (February 9, 1996) b. Assassination of Billy Wright (December 27, 1997) c. Poyntzpass Killings (March 3, 1998) 5. South Africa: Violence as an Impetus to Peace a. The Boipatong Massacre (June 17, 1992) b. Assassination of Chris Hani (April 10, 1993) c. St James Church Massacre (July 25, 1993) 6. Sri Lanka: Mistrust and the End of Peace Talks a. Sinking of 'Sagarawardene' (September 19, 1994) b. Assassination of Gamini Dissanayake (October 23, 1994) c. Attack on Trincomalee Harbour (April 18/19, 1995) PART THREE CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 7. Explaining and Managing Violence-Induced Crisis 8. Conclusions: Outlook for Research and Policy 9. Where Do We Go from Here? 10. References 11. Index About the Author Kristine Hoglund, Ph.D. (2004) in Peace and Conflict Research, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden. She has published on the inter-linkages between negotiations and violence; trust and negotiations; and the dilemmas of democratization in post-war societies.
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978-90-04-15837-5 (9789004158375)
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Kristine Hoglund, Ph.D. (2004) in Peace and Conflict Research, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden. She has published on the inter-linkages between negotiations and violence; trust and negotiations; and the dilemma
PART I: VIOLENCE AND PEACE PROCESSES
Chapter 1
Violence: An Impetus or Obstacle to Peace?
The Main Argument
A Comparative Approach
Overview of the Study
Chapter 2
Fear of Peace, Fear of War
Theoretical Underpinnings
The Nature of Peace Negotiations
The Nature of Violence
The Relationship between Violence and Negotiations
Explaining Crises in Negotiation Processes
Violence and Inter-Party Mistrust
Violence and Intra-Party Opposition
Alleviating the Fears of a Peace Agreement
Structure of the Analysis
Key Concepts and Research Questions
Structure of the Empirical Analysis
Note on Sources
PART II: CASE STUDIES
Chapter 3
Guatemala: Building Confidence after Violence
From Conflict to Negotiation
The Negotiation Process
Violence in General
Assassination of Jorge Carpio (July 3, 1993)
Context of Negotiations
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Xamán Massacre (October 5, 1995)
Changes in the Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Kidnapping of Olga de Novella (August 25, 1996)
Changes in the Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Conclusion
Chapter 4
Northern Ireland: Arms and the Problem of Trust
From Conflict to Negotiation
The Negotiation Process
Violence in General
Bombing of Canary Wharf, London (February 9, 1996)
Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Assassination of Billy Wright (December 27, 1997)
Changes in the Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Poyntzpass Killings (March 3, 1998)
Changes in the Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Conclusion
Chapter 5
South Africa: Violence as an Impetus to Peace
From Conflict to Negotiation
The Negotiation Process
Violence in General
The Boipatong massacre (June 17, 1992)
The Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Assassination of Chris Hani (April 10, 1993)
Changes in the Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
St James Church Massacre (July 25, 1993)
Changes in the Context of Negotiation
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Conclusion
Chapter 6
Sri Lanka: Mistrust and the End of Peace Talks
From Conflict to Negotiation
The Negotiation Process
Violence in General
Sinking of 'Sagarawardene' (September 19, 1994)
Context of Negotiations
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Assassination of Gamini Dissanyake (October 23, 1994)
Changes in the Context of Negotiations
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Attack on Trincomalee Harbour (April 18/19, 1995)
Changes in the Context of Negotiations
Attributes of Violence
Patterns of Response
Outcome
Conclusion
PART III: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
Chapter 7
Explaining and Managing Violence-Induced Crisis
Patterns of Crisis and Crisis Management
Crisis Occurrence
Managing Violence-Induced Crisis
Explaining Crisis and Negotiation Dynamics
Trust Between, Trust Within
The Negotiation Process: Momentum, Formula, and Time
Fear of Continued Armed Conflict
Confidence-Building: Public Acts and Secret Talks
Third Parties: Violence Prevention and Crisis Management
Nuances of Violence: Additional Observations
Effects of Violenceh
Characteristics of Violence
Ceasefires and Violence-Regulating Mechanisms
Conclusion: Complex Causality and 'Feedback Loops'
Chapter 8
Conclusions: Outlook for Research and Policy
Main Findings
Implications for the Study of Conflict Resolution Processes
Implications for Policy and Practice
Intervention Strategies for Third Parties?
How Can a Negotiation Process Be Structured?
What Can the Parties Themselves Do?
Where Do We Go from Here?
