In the beginning of the 20th century, the father of modern science fiction, H.G. Wells, predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Yet, a century on, most of us, from TV weather forecasters to the American President, seem to have no idea of how to reason about uncertainties. This volume offers a treatment for the "disease" of statistical illiteracy. Aimed at helping us understand risks in the real world, it shows how a proper understanding of uncertainties can make the difference between hope and despair.
Sprache
Verlagsort
Verlagsgruppe
Illustrationen
illustrations, glossary, notes, index
Maße
Höhe: 233 mm
Breite: 153 mm
Dicke: 25 mm
Gewicht
ISBN-13
978-0-7139-9512-1 (9780713995121)
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Schweitzer Klassifikation
Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition in Berlin, and a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. Dan Dennett writes: "Gigerenzer is one of the smartest psychologists I know, and he's bursting with great ideas. His topic is dynamite".
Part 1 Dare to know: uncertainty; the illusion of uncertainty; innumeracy; insight. Part 2 Understanding uncertainties in the real world: breast cancer screening; (un)informed consent; Aids counselling; wife battering; experts on trial; DNA fingerprinting; violent people. Part 3 From innumeracy to insight: how innumeracy can be exploited; fun problems; teaching clear thinking.
