Future Scenarios in Retrospective

Strategic management is based on a vision of the future. Changes in
markets and business environments cannot necessarily be predicted,
but they can be anticipated. This refers to the scenario planning technique
which we have been utilizing in strategy projects for years.
Many of these scenario projects spanned periods of time that are
now in the present. The question we had to answer was whether or
not a foreseen scenario from a scenario project actually occurred,
and in most cases the answer was yes.
We analyzed the assertions of 19 scenario projects that were conducted,
and discovered that we erred in three scenario projects; meaning,
none of the developed scenarios occurred. Our analysts used
this opportunity to find out why. Based on the analysis of scenario
projects, we were able to formulate rules for successful forecasting.