Choice Behaviour of Freight Agents in Maritime Container Hinterland Transport.

Evaluation of mode shift strategies is impaired by a lack of knowledge on willingness to pay measures of freight agents. Derived research objective is to create future mode shift scenarios of maritime container hinterland transport for investment decision support. Empirically collected data from seafreight forwarders and liner carriers forms the basis for analysis. Five multinomial discrete choice models are tested and one model is finally selected and applied. Main theoretical contribution is an adapted behavioural choice model of freight agents highlighting the impact of customer preferences and choice connectivity. Concluding, a decision support tool integrates results of the discrete choice analysis and the behavioural choice analysis including choice probabilities and willingness to pay measures. The final decision support tool is designed for modal split scenario calculation and cost-benefit analysis of up to six port hinterland investment projects.