A fascinating account of the breakthrough ideas that transformed probability and statistics In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, gamblers and mathematicians transformed the idea of chance from a mystery into the discipline of probability, setting the stage for a series of breakthroughs that enabled or transformed innumerable fields, from gambling, mathematics, statistics, economics, and finance to physics and computer science. This book tells the story of ten great ideas about chance and the thinkers who developed them, tracing the philosophical implications of these ideas as well as their mathematical impact. Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms begin with Girolamo Cardano, a sixteenth-century physician, mathematician, and professional gambler who helped develop the idea that chance actually can be measured. They describe how later thinkers showed how the judgment of chance also can be measured, how frequency is related to chance, and how chance, judgment, and frequency could be unified.
Diaconis and Skyrms explain how Thomas Bayes laid the foundation of modern statistics, and they explore David Hume's problem of induction, Andrey Kolmogorov's general mathematical framework for probability, the application of computability to chance, and why chance is essential to modern physics. A final idea--that we are psychologically predisposed to error when judging chance--is taken up through the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Complete with a brief probability refresher, Ten Great Ideas about Chance is certain to be a hit with anyone who wants to understand the secrets of probability and how they were discovered.
Rezensionen / Stimmen
"A historical and philosophical tour of major insights in the development of probability theory."---James Ryerson, New York Times Book Review "A volume that should be on every scientist's reading list."---Barbara Kiser, Nature "Mathematically rigorous, yet also reasonably accessible; informative, yet fun and entertaining to read. Both students and faculty should find reading this to be a rewarding experience." * MAA Reviews * "The audience is quite specific, but for them it will be a gem. . . . I would recommend this to any student studying or having studied anything statistics related at university."---Jonathan Shock, Mathemafrica "A very enriching journey. Your vision will be broadened assimilating all these issues and solutions as well as open problems from the early history of probability, game theory, financial markets, politics, thermodynamics, quantum theory and much much more."---Adhemar Bultheel, European Mathematical Society "A great book for anyone who wants to understand some of the central tenets of probability, how they were discovered, and how they can be tamed in our day-to-day lives." * ZME Science * "This book will not increase your odds of winning at games of chance, but it will give you some greater understanding of why you lose." * Cosmos * "Ten Great Ideas about Chance isn't just about 18th century philosophical arguments, World War II events or tests of expensive, hard-to-pronounce drugs. The book's ideas are as down to earth and as current as your busted bracket for NCAA Men's Basketball." * Herald Business Journal * "To anyone with an interest in probability or statistics, this is a book you must read. . . . [It] is far-ranging and can be read at many levels, from the novice to the expert. It is also thoroughly engaging, written in a conversational style with many examples and asides and an emphasis throughout on the people who have built the theory."---David M. Bressoud, UMAP Journal "A terrific book. The authors explain 10 great ideas in probability, starting from their history and pursuing their philosophical implications."---Eric S. Rosenthal, Mathematics Magazine
Sprache
Verlagsort
Zielgruppe
Für höhere Schule und Studium
Für Beruf und Forschung
Produkt-Hinweis
Illustrationen
25 halftones. 19 line illus. 8 tables.
Maße
Höhe: 235 mm
Breite: 152 mm
Gewicht
ISBN-13
978-0-691-17416-7 (9780691174167)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Klassifikation
Persi Diaconis is the Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics at Stanford University and the coauthor of Magical Mathematics: The Mathematical Ideas That Animate Great Magic Tricks (Princeton). Brian Skyrms is Distinguished Professor in the Department of Logic and Philosophy at the University of California, Irvine, and Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University. His books include From Zeno to Arbitrage.
