Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling

Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Part I: Developing Corporate Finance Models
1: Introduction
1.1 What is Financial Modelling?
1.2 Defining the Inputs and the Outputs of a Simple FinancialModel
1.3 The Financial Modelling Process of More Complex Models
1.4 Excel as Tool of Modelling: Capabilities and Limitations
2: A Short Primer in the Accounting of FinancialStatements
2.1 The Accounting Equation
2.2 The Balance Sheet
2.3 The Income Statement
2.4 The Cash Flow Statement
2.5 The Articulation of Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and CashFlow Statements
2.6 Financial Statement Analysis: Ratio Analysis
3: Financial Statement Modelling
3.1 Introduction - How Financial Models Work
3.2 Collecting and Analyzing Historical Data
3.3 Selecting the Key Forecast Drivers
3.4 Modelling the Income Statement
3.5 Balancing the Balance Sheet
3.6 Modelling Interest and Circular References
3.7 Modelling the Cash Flow Statement
4: Forecasting Performance
4.1 Introduction: Designing a Dashboard-like ControlPanel
4.2 Basic Statistical Methods Used for Forecasting
4.3 Forecasting Sales
4.4 Forecasting Costs
4.5 Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation
4.6 Forecasting Working Capital and Funding Needs
5: Business Valuation
5.1 Valuation Approaches
5.2 Steps for Applying the DCF Method
5.3 Rewriting Financial Statements - Calculation of Free CashFlows
5.4 Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital
5.5 Estimating the Terminal Value
5.6 DCF Summary - Enterprise Value Adjustments
Part II: Planning for Uncertainty
6: Using Sensitivity Analysis
6.1 Introduction
6.2 One-Dimensional and 2-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis
6.3 Choosing the Variables to Change
6.4 Modelling Example
7: Using Scenarios
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Using Scenario Analysis with Excel's ScenarioManager
7.3 Alternative Ways to Create Scenarios in Excel
7.4 Applying Scenarios to SteelCo's Case
8: Using Monte Carlo Simulation
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Building Uncertainty Directly Into the Modelling Process
8.3 Probabilities, Cumulative Probabilities and FrequencyDistribution Charts
8.4 Modelling Example
Appendix
1. Walking through the Excel Model Provided with the Book(SteelCo SA 4yr Business Plan)
2. Description of the Other Excel Files Provided with theBook
Index