Volume 1 List of Contributors xiii

Acknowledgements xxv

1 Climate Change: The Physical Picture 1 Tony Eggleton

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Climate 1

1.3 Knowledge Gaps 6

1.4 Climate Change 8

1.5 Evidence for Change Since 1880 9

1.6 Changes to the Ocean 12

1.7 Climates of the Past 16

References 19

2 Future Physical Changes 23 Tony Eggleton

2.1 Introduction 23

2.2 Short-Term Projections - 35 years 24

2.3 Longer Term Changes 35

2.4 Concluding Remarks 38

References 40

3 Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture 45 Keith Brander, Kevern Cochrane, Manuel Barange and Doris Soto

3.1 Introduction 45

3.2 Historic Trends in Global Fish Production and Causes of the Trends 46

3.3 Global Patterns of Expected Climate Change and its Impacts 49

3.4 Uncertainties and Assumptions in Projections of Future Global Fish Production 55

3.5 Options for Adaptation and their Implications for the Future 55

3.6 Conclusions 59

References 60

4 Biodiversity and Climate Change in the Oceans 63 David J. Booth, Elvira Poloczanska, Jennifer M. Donelson, Jorge Garcia Molinos and Mike Burrows

4.1 Introduction 63

4.2 Regional Changes on Ocean Physics and Chemistry 64

4.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Effects on Biodiversity of Fish and Fisheries 74

References 78

5 Impacts of Climate Change on New Zealand Fisheries and Aquaculture 91 Matthew H. Pinkerton

5.1 Introduction 91

5.2 The New Zealand Marine Environment 91

5.3 Fisheries and Fisheries Management in New Zealand 93

5.4 Climate Variability and Change in New Zealand 97

5.5 Effects of Climate Change on New Zealand Fisheries and Aquaculture 101

5.6 Concluding Remarks 107

Acknowledgements 109

References 109

6 Impacts of Climate Change on the Marine Resources of Japan 121 Hiroya Sugisaki and Keisuke Murakami

6.1 Introduction 121

6.2 Climate Change Effects on Marine Environments 121

6.3 The Status and Adaptation to Climate Change in Japanese Fishery Species and Predictions for the Future 123

6.4 Climate Change Impacts for Larval Stages of Species Important for Aquaculture and Stock Enhancement 125

6.5 Discussion 126

References 127

7 Impacts of Climate Change on Eastern Australia Fisheries 129 Bruce F. Phillips and David J. Welch

7.1 Introduction 129

7.2 North East Australia 130

7.3 South Eastern Australia 142

7.4 Conclusions 149

References 150

8 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture of the United States 159

Introduction Written by Jay Peterson, Roger Griffis

Gulf of Alaska Written by Stephani G. Zador, Michael F. Sigler, John E. Joyce

California Current Written by Mary Hunsicker, Steven Bograd, Lisa G. Crozier, Sam McClatchie, James A. Morris, Jr., William T. Peterson, Carol Price

Pacific Islands Written by Phoebe A. Woodworth-Jefcoats

Gulf of Mexico Written by Mandy Karnauskas, Roldan Munoz, Amy Schueller, J. Kevin Craig

Southeast US Atlantic Written by (alphabetically) Nathan Bacheler, Michael L. Burton, Karla Gore, Todd Kellison, James A. Morris, Jr., Roldan Munoz, Carol Price

Northeast US Atlantic Written by Jonathan A. Hare, Kevin D. Friedland and Timothy J. Miller

8.1 Introduction 159

8.2 Gulf of Alaska 160

8.3 California Current 165

8.4 Pacific Islands Region 176

8.5 Gulf of Mexico 180

8.6 Southeast US Atlantic - Climate Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture 185

8.7 Climate Change and Fisheries on the Northeast U.S. Shelf 193

References 198

9 Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Pacific Fisheries 219 Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Christian Salvadeo, Daniel B. Lluch-Cota, Romeo Saldivar-Lucio and German Ponce Diaz

9.1 Introduction 219

9.1.1 Fisheries Overview in Mexican Pacific 219

9.1.2 Regional Climate and Environmental Trends 221

9.2 Case Studies 223

9.2.1 Pelagic Fisheries 223

9.2.2 Benthic Fisheries 225

9.3 Discussion 226

9.3.1 Major Uncertainties 226

9.3.2 Implications for Management 228

References 230

10 Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture in Chile 239 Eleuterio Yanez, Nelson A. Lagos, Ricardo Norambuena, Claudio Silva, Jaime Letelier, Karl-Peter Muck, Gustavo San Martin, Samanta Benitez, Bernardo R. Broitman, Heraldo Contreras, Cristian Duarte, Stefan Gelcich, Fabio A. Labra, Marco A. Lardies, Patricio H. Manriquez, Pedro A. Quijon, Laura Ramajo, Exequiel Gonzalez, Renato Molina, Allan Gomez, Luis Soto, Aldo Montecino, Maria Angela Barbieri, Francisco Plaza, Felipe Sanchez, Antonio Aranis, Claudio Bernal and Gabriela Bohm

10.1 Introduction 239

10.2 Institutional Framework in Chile for Addressing Climate Change 241

10.3 The Eastern South Pacific Climate System: Evidence and Projections 245

10.4 Case Studies 256

Acknowledgements 315

References 315

11 The Pacific Island Region: Fisheries, Aquaculture and Climate Change 333 Johanna E. Johnson, Johann D. Bell, Valerie Allain, Quentin Hanich, Patrick Lehodey, Brad R. Moore, Simon Nicol, Tim Pickering and Inna Senina

11.1 Introduction to the Pacific Island Region 333

11.2 Pacific Island Fisheries and Aquaculture 338

11.3 Projected Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture 344

11.4 Implications for Economic Development, Food Security and Livelihoods 360

11.5 Adaptation Options 363

11.6 Future Research 366

11.7 Conclusions 369

References 369

12 Impacts of Climate Change in the United Kingdom and Ireland 381 John K. Pinnegar, Paul Buckley and Georg H. Engelhard

12.1 Background 381

12.2 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries 385

12.3 Climate Change Impacts on Aquaculture 397

12.4 Discussion and Conclusions 401

Acknowledgements 403

References 403

13 Canadian Fisheries and Aquaculture: Prospects under a Changing Climate 415 Jake Rice, Richard Beamish, Daniel Duplisea, Gregor Reid and Helen Gurley-Smith

13.1 Introduction - The Canadian Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries 415

13.2 Effects of Climate Change on Ocean Conditions 423

13.3 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Atlantic Fisheries and Fish Stocks 427

13.4 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Pacific Fisheries and Fish Stocks 433

13.5 Potential Climate Impacts on Canadian Aquaculture Facilities and Production 439

13.6 Conclusions and Implications 443

References 444

14 Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Brazilian Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture 455 Maria A. Gasalla, Patrizia R. Abdallah and Daniel Lemos

14.1 Introduction 455

14.2 Projections from Global Models 458

14.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Marine Fisheries 459

14.4 Case Study: Evidence of ENSO Effects on Fishery Resources of the Patos Lagoon Region (Extreme South of Brazil) Exploited by Small-Scale Fisheries 463

14.5 Potential Effects of Climate Change in Marine and Brackish Aquaculture 466

14.6 Final Remarks 470

Acknowledgements 472

References 472 Volume 2 List of Contributors xiii

Acknowledgements xxv

15 South Africa 479 Johann Augustyn, Andrew Cockcroft , Sven Kerwath, Stephen Lamberth, Jean Githaiga-Mwicigi, Grant Pitcher, Michael Roberts, Carl van der Lingen and Lutz Auerswald

15.1 Introduction 479

15.2 Climate Change Effects on the Marine Environment 480

15.3 Effects of Climate Change on Marine Resources and Associated Fauna 485

15.4 Management Response to Climate Change Effects on Marine Resources and Aquaculture 511

15.5 Discussion and Conclusions 511

References 516

16 The Seychelles Tuna Fishery and Climate Change 523 Francis Marsac

16.1 Introduction 523

16.2 Observed Responses of Tuna Fisheries to Environmental Anomalies 535

16.3 Projected Environmental Changes and Possible Effects on Tuna Fisheries 547

16.4 Possible Impacts on the Seychelles Economy 560

16.5 Conclusions 561

Acknowledgements 563

References 563

17 The Impact of Climate Change on Marine and Inland Fisheries and Aquaculture in India 569 Bimal Mohanty, Elayaperumal Vivekanandan, Sasmita Mohanty, Arabinda Mahanty,Raman Trivedi, Manoj Tripathy and Jnanendra Sahu

17.1 Introduction 569

17.2 Impact on Biological Processes 575

17.3 Impact on Marine Ecosystems 579

17.4 Impact of Climate Change on Fragile Coastal Ecosystems - The Indian Sundarbans as a Case Study 581

17.5 Impact of Climate Change on Fish Production 587

17.6 The Way Forward 588

17.7 Conclusions 596

References 596

18 Management Adaptation to Climate Change Effect on Fisheries in Western Australia 603 Nick Caputi, Simon de Lestang, Ming Feng and Gary Jackson

18.1 Introduction 603

18.2 Climate Sensitivity of Marine Environment 609

18.3 Effect of Climate Change on Fish Stocks 614

18.4 Climate Change Effect on Aquaculture Species 627

18.5 Implications for Fisheries Management 628

18.6 Discussion and Conclusions 630

References 633

19 Climate Change and Fisheries in the Caribbean 639 Mónica Pérez-Ramírez

19.1 Introduction 639

19.2 Fish Production 640

19.3 Observed and Projected Changes 645

19.4 Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture 649

19.5 Challenges for Fisheries and Aquaculture 652

References 656

20 Impacts of Climate Change on the Southern Ocean 663 Katja Mintenbeck

20.1 Introduction 663

20.2 Southern Ocean Fisheries 669

20.3 Interactions Between Fisheries and Climate Forcing 681

20.4 Management, Monitoring and Future Perspectives 686

Acknowledgements 687

References 687

21 Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Arctic Marine Ecosystems 703 Anne B. Hollowed, Wei Cheng, Harald Loeng, Elizabeth Logerwell and James Reist

21.1 Introduction 703

21.2 Methods 705

21.3 Results 711

21.4 Discussion 718

Acknowledgements 721

Appendix: Barents Sea Commercial Fish Stocks 721

References 723

22 Seagrasses and Macroalgae: Importance, Vulnerability and Impacts 729 Peter I. Macreadie, Jessie Jarvis, Stacey M. Trevathan-Tackett and Alecia Bellgrove

22.1 Introduction 729

22.2 Importance for Fisheries and Aquaculture 738

22.3 Impact of Climate Change on Seagrass and Macroalgae 744

22.4 Climate-Related Loss of Seagrass and Macroalgae and their Potential Links to Fisheries and Aquaculture 749

22.5 Conclusions 751

References 752

23 Impacts of Climate Change on Pelagic Fish and Fisheries 771 Barbara Muhling, Martin Lindegren, Lotte Worsoe Clausen, Alistair Hobday and Patrick Lehodey

23.1 Introduction 771

23.2 Climate Change and the Pelagic Ocean Environment 774

23.3 Impacts on Physiology and Ecology of Pelagic Fishes 776

23.4 Future Projections for Pelagic Fishes 784

23.5 Significance for Fisheries 789

23.6 Management Responses 790

23.7 Conclusions 792

23.8 Case Study: Sardine and Anchovy in the California Current Ecosystem 792

References 797

24 Lobsters in a Changing Climate 815 Bruce F. Phillips, Mónica Pérez-Ramírez and Simon de Lestang

24.1 Introduction 815

24.2 Panulirus cygnus 816

24.3 Panulirus interruptus 820

24.4 Panulirus argus 822

24.5 Jasus edwardsii 826

24.6 Homarus americanus 830

24.7 Adaptation to Climate Change 833

24.8 Conclusions 837

Acknowledgements 839

References 839

25 Climate Change, Zooplankton and Fisheries 851 Hans G. Dam and Hannes Baumann

25.1 Introduction 851

25.2 Direct Response of Zooplankton to Climatic Variables 853

25.3 Indirect Responses of Zooplankton to Climate Change 861

25.4 Implications for Fisheries 863

Acknowledgements 866

References 866

26 Tropical Marine Fishes and Fisheries and Climate Change 875 David J. Booth, David Feary, Donald Kobayashi, Osmar Luiz and Yohei Nakamura

26.1 Introduction 875

26.2 Tropical Currents, Propagule Transport, and Ecosystem Connectivity Under Climate Change Conditions 877

26.3 Climate-Change Induced Range Shifts of Tropical Fishes and Fisheries 883

26.4 Fish and Fisheries in the Hottest Seas, Effects of Climate Change 888

References 890

27 The Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Phytoplankton 997 Donat-P. Hader and Kunshan Gao

27.1 Introduction 897

27.2 Effects of Increasing Solar UV-B on Phytoplankton Caused by Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 901

27.3 Light Climate in the Water Column 903

27.4 Effects of Ocean Warming 905

27.5 Effects of Ocean Acidification and Changes in Seawater Chemistry 906

27.6 Effects of Nutrients on Phytoplankton Growth 908

27.7 Effects of Increasing Pollution 909

27.8 Conclusions and Future Work 911

Acknowledgements 912

References 912

28 Socioeconomic Impacts of Changes to Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture that are Brought About Through Climate Change 925 Natalie Stoeckl, Silva Larson, Joseph Thomas, Christina Hicks, Sean Pascoe and Helene Marsh

28.1 Introduction 925

28.2 Small-Scale, Artisanal and Subsistence-Based Fisheries of the Western Indian Ocean 933

28.3 The Traditional Dugong and Turtle Fisheries of the Torres Strait 937

28.4 Commercial Fisheries of Australia 941

28.5 Discussion 945

28.6 Concluding Comments and Directions for Future Research 947

Acknowledgements 947

References 948

29 Conclusions 959 Bruce F. Phillips and Mónica Pérez-Ramírez

Index 963