Navigating the Stock Market

Name: Navigating the Stock Market | A Practical Guide to Successful Buying, Selling, and AI Risk Management
Brand: De Gruyter
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A Practical Guide to Successful Buying, Selling, and AI Risk Management

Arshad Khan(Autor*in)

De Gruyter (Verlag)

1. Auflage

Erschienen am 27. März 2024

210 Seiten

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Inhalt

Cover
Half Title
Title
Copyright
Contents
Preface
Chapter 1: Planning, Research, and Screening
Basic Requirements for Stock Market Investing
Understand the Difference Between Saving and Investing
Being Too Conservative Can Be Risky
The Need to Believe in the Stock Market
Should You Invest in Stocks or Stay Away From Them?
Appreciate the Power of Compounding
Use the Rule of 72 Tool
Objective and Method
Determine Your Objectives
Follow a Simple Investing Approach
Define Your Method and Follow It
Follow Your Method With Discipline
Have a Long-Term Horizon
Strategy and Approach for Stock Market Investing
Do Not Invest Without a Strategy
Select an Investment Strategy Before You Start Investing
Create Your Own Strategy for Better Alignment
Do Not Use Unproven Strategies
Growth Investing Approach
Value Investing Approach
Momentum Investing Approach
How to Combine Investment Strategies
Research Sources and Techniques
Research Using Multiple Sources
Make the Internet Your Friend
Use the Investor's Business Daily
Do Not Use Unreliable Research Sources and Data
Use Reliable Sources for Earnings Data
Study Research Reports
Sources for Research Reports
Study the 10K Report
Reach Out to the Company
Listen in on Conference Calls
What to Focus on During Conference Calls
Attend Shareholders' Meetings
Screening
Use a Proven Method for Picking Winners
Search for Growth Companies
Recognize and Pick Winning Indicators
Indicator Values to Use
Use Indicators That Highlight Different Perspectives
Earnings Indicators Favored for Screening and Selecting Stocks
Additional Indicators Used for Screening and Selecting Stocks
Combining Indicators From Different Investment Approaches is Risky
Never Use a Single Indicator
Limit the Number of Indicators to Track
Use Online Screening Tools
Chapter 2: Buying
Where to Invest
Invest in What You Know the Best
Buy Into a Theme
What Are The Current Themes
Invest in Growth Companies
Buy Leading Companies in an Industry or Niche
Invest in a Company-Not the Market
Invest in Small Companies
Favor Small-Cap Companies
Favor Stocks With Market Cap Below $1 Billion
Do Not Be Misled By Large Price Moves
Laggards Can Occasionally Become Winners
When to Buy
Buy Low, Sell High
Remain Invested at All Times
Buy on Weakness-Sell on Strength
Buy High, Sell Higher
Buy Stocks Six Months After a Recession Starts
Dollar Cost Average to Avoid Mistiming
Average Up-Not Down
Seasonal Considerations
Take Advantage of Seasonal Factors
Take Advantage of the January Effect
Beware of September
Take Advantage of Window Dressing
What to Do Before You Buy
Select the Broker
Who Are the Leading Brokers
Get Information Before, Not After, Buying a Stock
Analyze Fundamentals Before Investing
Determine Risk Associated With a Stock
Analyze Business Conditions and Prospects
Check the Market Health
Analyze Economic Conditions and Cycle
Chapter 3: Picking Winning Characteristics
Fast and Consistent Growth
What Are Growth Stock Characteristics?
High Growth Rate Should Be Sustainable
Stock Should Have Small Capitalization
Growth Must Be Accompanied By Profits
Revenue Should Be Increasing at a Healthy Pace
Learn How to Analyze Revenue
Growth Rate Should Be Greater Than the P/E Ratio
Profitability
The Company Must Be Profitable
Earnings Growth Rate Should Be High
Annual and Quarterly Earnings Should Be Increasing
Earnings Should Be Accelerating
Earnings Estimates Are Being Raised
EPS Rank Is High
EPS Rank Is Rising
Margins Are High and Rising
Momentum
RS Rank Is High
Stock Is Hitting New Price Highs
Accumulation Is Taking Place
Stock Is in an Uptrend
Leadership
Stock Is a Leader
Stock Is a Leader Emerging From a Correction
Company Has Superior Leadership
Stock Market Leader Need Not Be a Household Name
Use Industry Groups to Identify Leadership
Sources to Scan for Industry Group Leadership
Other Characteristics
High Demand for Products
Strategic Market Position
Institutional Ownership Is High
Insiders Should Have a High Stake
Insider Buying Is Taking Place
Stock With a Small Float Should Be Avoided
Chapter 4: Company, Industry, and Sector Analysis
Thoroughly Evaluate the Company
Perform Fundamental Analysis
Study the Company's Business
Evaluate the Company's Products
Study the Product Cycle
Evaluate Management Strengths and Weaknesses
Evaluate Management Characteristics
Study Environment, Competition, and Ownership
Determine Market Growth Expectations and Expansion Plans
Determine the Company's Market Control Status
Analyze Existing Competitors as Well as Potential Competition
Check If Insiders Have Been Buying
Check If Institutions Have Invested in the Stock
Confirm Company's Financial Health
Company Must Have Financial Strength
Analyze Financial Statements
Determine Financial Performance Trends
Important Items to Review in Financial Statements
Cash Flow Should Be Healthy
Debt-to-Equity Ratio Should Be Low
ROE Should Be High
Return on Sales and Margins Should Be High
Analyze the Industry Group and Sector
Determine Stock's Industry Group/Sector
Study the Associated Industry Group and Sector
Analyze Sector and Industry Group Health and Trend
Analyze Industry-Specific Indicators
Verify Technical and Trading Indicators Are Positive
Confirm Buy Decision by Using the Moving Average Line
Check the Stock Price Relative to Its 50-Day Moving Average
Confirm That the Stock Is Being Accumulated
Confirm That the Stock Has Liquidity
Evaluate Trading Risks
Chapter 5: Selling
Why Selling Is a Common Problem
Selling Strategy Is Lacking
Inability to Acknowledge Mistakes
Loss Definition Is Vague
Not Knowing When to Exit
Plan and Be Ready to Sell
Avoid Forced Selling
Select a Selling Strategy
Establish and Adhere to a Price Target
List Specific Reasons for Buying a Stock
Manage Your Losers
Recognize When Avoiding Selling Is Not a Mistake
Primary Reasons for Selling
Fundamentals Are Deteriorating
Interest Rate Trend Changes
Financials Are Deteriorating
Earnings Growth Is Disappointing
Loss Exceeds a Predetermined Percentage
Price Action Is Negative
Profit Taking
Stock Buying Reasons No Longer Exist
Market Is Giving a Strong Sell Signal
Secondary Reasons for Selling
Better Prospect Is Identified
Stock Is a Laggard
Sector Leaders Crumble
Company Is Relying on Laurels and Historical Performance
Institutions Are Dumping
Company Overpaid for an Acquisition
Portfolio Needs to Be Pruned
Tax Reasons
Technical Reasons for Selling
Moving Average Uptrend Turns Into a Downtrend
Volume Indicator Is Negative
Distribution Is Recognized
Price Performance Is Negative
Stock Is Overextended
Sell Signals for Small Companies With Few or Niche Products
Earnings Growth Rate Decreases Significantly
Business Conditions Change
Financial Position Deteriorates
Critical Product Is Delayed
Litigation Poses a Significant Risk
Company Starts Wasting Money
Chapter 6: Stock Prices and Valuation
Factors Causing Stock Prices to Rise or Fall
Key Performance Drivers
Demand for Stock Increases
Key Factors That Attract Buyers
Additional Factors That Influence Stock Performance
Why Stocks Are Volatile in the Short-Term
What Moves Stock Prices in the Short-Term
What Moves Stock Prices in the Long Term
Investor Perceptions Impact Stock Prices
Additional Factors Influencing Stock Prices
Traders
Analyst Recommendations
Impact of Analyst Recommendations
Share Buyback Announcements
Manipulation and Hype
Stock Splits
Mergers and Acquisitions
External Factors Influencing Stock Prices
Inflation
Monetary Policy
Factors Causing Interest Rates to Rise and Fall
Relationship Between the Stock and Bond Markets
Methods for Valuing Stocks
How Stock Prices Are Determined
Commonly Used Valuation Methods
Valuing Through Comparison With Investment Alternatives
Valuing By Comparing Relative Value
Valuing By Comparing Performance Expectation
Valuing By Intrinsic Value Determination
Chapter 7: Profitability and Price Performance
General
Importance of Earnings
How Earnings Are Reported
Learn How to Interpret Earnings
Analyze Earnings In-Depth
Earnings Can Be Related to the Economic Cycle
Why Dividends Have Lost Their Importance
What Return on Equity Indicates
ROE Can Be Related to a Stock's Price Performance
How to Analyze Earnings
What the Quarterly EPS Indicates
Analyzing Quarterly EPS
Use Annual EPS to Determine Profitability Consistency
Current Quarterly EPS Growth Rate Should Be Rising
Projected EPS Should Be in an Uptrend
Use Projected Annual Earnings to Estimate Future Price Performance
Projected Long-Term Earnings Growth Rate Must Be High
Obtain Projected Earnings Growth Rates From Reliable Sources
Favor Companies With Consistent Earnings Growth
Earnings Estimates and Revisions
Why Earnings Estimates Are Revised
Drill Down and Check Range of Earnings Estimates
Earnings Estimates Should Be Based on at Least Four Estimates
Earnings Estimate Revisions Should Be Positive
Earnings per Share (EPS) Rank
What EPS Rank Indicates
EPS Rank Is Related to a Stock's Performance
Sources Providing the EPS Rank
EPS Rank Limitations
Relative Strength (RS) Rank
What RS Rank Indicates
Favor Stocks With High RS Rank
Using RS Rank With Other Criteria
RS Rank Can Be Used to Find Winners
Sources Providing the RS Rank
Risk With High RS Rank Stocks
Monitor Your Stock's RS Rank
Use Relative Strength (RS) Line for Comparison
Chapter 8: Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio
Understanding the P/E Ratio Indicator
Learn Valuation Techniques
How P/E Ratio Is Calculated
Importance of the P/E Indicator
P/E Ratios for Individual Stocks, Overall Market, and Sectors
Trailing P/E Ratio Is Backward Looking
Use Projected P/E Ratio to Determine Future Prospects
Relative P/E Indicates Historical Range
Understanding P/E Ratio Variations
Factors Causing the P/E Ratio to Fluctuate
Factors Causing the P/E Ratio to Expand
P/E Ratios Vary in a Wide Range Across Industries
Avoid Extreme P/E Ratios
Economic Cycle Impacts the P/E Ratio
Inflation and Interest Rates Impact the P/E Ratio
Using the P/E Indicator
P/E Ratio Usage Is Determined by Investment Approach
Use P/E Ratio as a Comparison Tool
Favor Stocks at the Low End of Their Historical P/E Range
What a Consistently High P/E Ratio Means
Use P/E-to-Projected Growth Rate Indicator to Check Valuation
P/E Ratio Risks
Be Aware of Distortions
High P/E Stocks Can Be Risky
Low P/E Stocks Can Be Risky
Chapter 9: Market Behavior
General
Learn How to Interpret Market Behavior
The Stock Market Has a Discounting Mechanism
Learn How to Determine Market Trend
Learn How to Identify Market Tops and Bottoms
Use Market Declines as Buying Opportunities
Be Aware of Limitations in Forecasting Market Levels Accurately
Bull and Bear Market Characteristics
What Is a Bull Market?
What Is a Bear Market?
How a Bull Market Starts
How a Bear Market Start
Why Many Bull Markets Start During Recessions
Why Bear Markets Are Feared
How to Recognize Bullish Signs
Bullish Technical Indicators
How to Recognize Bearish Signs
Bearish Technical Signs
Corrections
What Is a Correction?
Corrections: Cause and Effect
Rolling Correction Phenomenon
Learn How to Recognize Rolling Corrections
Why Sector Rotation Takes Place
Take Advantage of Corrections
Learn How to Pick Leaders During Corrections
Avoid Market Timing to Avoid Corrections
Chapter 10: Technical Analysis
Basis and Limitations of Technical Analysis
Learn Basic Technical Analysis Concepts
What Technical Analysis Is Based On
What Technical Analysis Indicates
Use Technical Analysis for Entry Point Determination
Limitations of Technical Analysis
Understanding Moving Averages
What Is a Moving Average
Most Popular Moving Averages
Significance of Moving Averages
Moving Averages Can Give Mixed Signals
Moving Averages Can Be Related to Investor Sentiment
Influence on Momentum Investors
Which Moving Average to Use
Understand the Concept of Trend Lines
Analyze Charts With Moving Averages and Trend Lines
Limitation of Moving Averages
How to Monitor Moving Averages
200-Day Moving Average Characteristics
200-Day Moving Average as a Trend Indicator
200-Day Moving Average as a Market Direction Change Indicator
200-Day Moving Average Can Give a False Signal Tips for Individual Stocks
Tips for the Market
Relating the 200-Day Moving Average to the Market Health
Relating Stocks Trading Over Their 200-Day Moving Average to Market Health
Support, Resistance, and Basing
Be Familiar With the Stock Price Cycle and Its Current Phase
What Is a Support Line?
Moving Average as a Support Line
How Solid Is a Support Line?
What Is a Resistance Line?
How Solid Is a Resistance Line?
Effect of Overhead Supply on Rebounding Stocks
What Is Basing?
What Is a Breakout
Understanding the Breakout Strategy
Trading Volume and Price Performance
Volume Can Be Related to Trend Changes or Turning Points
Analyze Trading Volume
Focus on Percentage Change in Volume
Chapter 11: Monitoring the Economy
General
Why the Economy Should Be Monitored
Key Indicators Used to Monitor the Economy's Performance
Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy
Primary Indicators
Inflation
Producer Price Index
Consumer Price Index
Commodity Research Bureau Index
Employment
Jobs Growth
Secondary Indicators
Gross Domestic Product
Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers' Index
Housing
Housing Starts and Building Permits
Sales of New and Existing Homes
Construction Spending
Retail Sales
Factory Orders
Durable Goods
Inventories
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures
Industrial Production Index
Capacity Utilization
Index of Leading Economic Indicators
Money Supply
Chapter 12: Monitoring Stocks, Groups, and Sectors
General
Monitor Everything That Can Impact Your Stock
Monitor Factors That Reduce Stock Supply
Monitor Factors That Increase Demand
Learn to Recognize if Good or Bad News Has Been Discounted
Observe How Stocks and the Market Respond to News
Monitoring Individual Stocks
Key Indicators That Are Widely Monitored
Determine Reasons for Price Moves
Monitor Earnings Releases
Sources for Earnings Releases
Investigate Earnings Surprises
Monitor Volume Signals
Observe Changes in Trading Volume
Monitor What Institutions Are Doing
Monitor Stock Buybacks Announcements
Monitor Revenue (Sales) Growth Trend
Monitor How Margins Are Trending
Monitor the Insiders
Monitor Insider Trading
Monitor Insider Selling
Monitor Insider Buying
Monitoring Industry Groups and Sectors
Monitor Stock's Sector and Industry Group Performance
Identify Group Leaders
Monitor Industry Group's Rank and Trend
Monitor Industry Specific Index and/or Report
Monitor Other Groups and Sectors
Chapter 13: Monitoring Market and Psychological Indicators
How to Monitor the Market
Monitor the Market Trend
Monitor Market Behavior
Monitor Market Averages and Indexes
Monitor Market Sector Indexes
Using Market Indicators
Select the Appropriate Average/Index
Use Market Averages and Indexes for Comparing Performance
Do Not Be Misled by the DJIA
Divergence Is a Warning Sign
Monitor Market Averages and Indexes but Retain Perspective
Be Aware of Factors Causing Volatility
Monitor New Daily Lows to Determine Market Health
Monitor Indicators Spanning a Broad Spectrum
Monitoring Psychological Indicators
Analyze Psychological Indicators
Learn to Recognize Sentiment Extremes
Be a Contrarian
Buy on the Rumor-Sell on the News
Do Not Get Overexcited by News Stories About a Company
Stock Price Relative to Its Moving Averages Influences Sentiment
Using Psychological Indicators
Monitor Sentiment Indicators
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Sentiment Index
Bullish Readings Are Bearish and Vice Versa
Sentiment Is a Leading Indicator
Monitor the Put/Call Ratio
Loss Through Short Selling Can Be Devastating
Analyze Short Interest
Mutual Funds' Cash Levels Provide Valuable Insight
Monitor Mutual Funds' Cash Levels
Know What the Insiders Know
Understand Limitations of Psychological Indicators
Chapter 14: Buying and Selling Mistakes to Avoid
Buying
Do Not Buy a Stock Without a Profitable Track Record
Do Not Ignore Leaders
Do Not Favor Low-Growth Companies
Do Not Buy Mediocre Companies
Avoid Leaders Nearing the End of Their Run
Avoid Companies Embroiled in Serious Litigation
Do Not Buy a Stock Just Because It Has a Low Price
Do Not Buy Immediately After a Big Price Drop
Do Not Focus Only on the Buy Price
Do Not Buy a Company Just Because It Has a Low P/E Ratio
Do Not Buy Low Liquidity Stocks
Do Not Buy Defensive Stocks Near the End of a Recession
Do Not Give Importance to Tips and Rumors
Selling
Do Not Focus Too Much on the Buy Price
Do Not Fail to Cut Your Losses and Let the Profits Run
Do Not Hold on to Mediocre Performers
Do Not Delay Selling for Minor Gains
Do Not Delay Selling Due to a Rebound Expectation
Do Not Buy Just Because Stock's Price Declined to a Lower Level
Do Not Avoid Buying Because the Stock Price Is at a New High
Do Not Sell Too Early
Do Not Sell Your Slightly Overpriced Fast Growers
Do Not Make Taxes an Important Factor
Chapter 15: Miscellaneous Tips
General
Be an Informed Investor
Learn to Filter Out the Noise
Never Stop Monitoring
Avoid Excessive Monitoring
Follow a Few Stocks but Monitor Them Closely
Learn How to Interpret Recommendations
Ensure That Stock Being Considered Is Adequately Covered
Understand Stock Classifications
Monitor Brokerage Asset Allocation Announcements
Monitoring External Factors
Do Not Ignore Either Internal or External Factors
Monitor Economic Indicators
Monitor Political Events
Learn How to Navigate Markets in Times of Uncertainty
Check If Money Inflow Is Rising
Analyze Risk Due to Currency Fluctuations
Monitoring Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve
Monitor Interest Rate Trends
Learn How to Forecast Interest Rates
Monitor the Federal Reserve's Policies and Decisions
Monitor Federal Reserve Meetings
Monitor Federal Reserve Actions and Hints
Monitor How the Federal Reserve's Tools Are Being Deployed
Monitor Real Interest Rates
Monitor Bond Yields
Monitoring Your Performance and Portfolio
Analyze Your Strategy
Test and Evaluate Your Own Decisions
Analyze Your Trades
Evaluate Each Stock's Performance
Periodically Evaluate Your Portfolio
Select an Appropriate Benchmark
Chapter 16: Common Mistakes to Avoid
Approach and Strategy
Do Not Delay Investing in the Market
Do Not Be a Follower
Do Not Invest Without Discipline
Do Not Be a Casual Investor
Do Not Invest Without a Strategy
Do Not Invest Without Rules
Do Not Invest Without a Selection Criterion
Do Not Buy Before Performing Fundamental Analysis
Do Not Ignore a Stock's Sector or Industry Group
Timing
Do Not Wait for the Perfect Scenario
Do Not Try to Time the Market
Do Not Avoid Averaging Up
Do Not Ignore the Market's Seasonal Factors
Take Advantage of Cyclical Stocks' Movements
Psychology
Do Not Be Overawed by Wall Street Professionals
Do Not Confuse the Company With the Stock
Never Get Attached to a Stock
Do Not Be Impatient
Do Not Get Carried Away By Stock Splits
Speculation
Do Not Speculate
Do Not Buy Penny Stocks
Do Not Believe Message Boards
Miscellaneous
Do Not Fight the Trend
Never Fight the Fed
Do Not Focus on the Number of Shares
Do Not Use Flawed Logic
Do Not Make Dividends the Primary Objective
Do Not Favor Timing Over Selection
Do Not Let the Spread Eat Into Your Profits
Do Not Be Over Leveraged
Chapter 17: Risk Management
Risks
Be Aware of Risks Facing Stocks
Determine Your Risk Tolerance
Market Risk
Risk Due to Inflation
Risk Due to Unfavorable Interest Rates
Risk From the Business
Risk From Company Performance
Risk of Growth Stocks
Other Risks
Managing Risk
Volatility and Risk
Understanding Price Fluctuations
Do Not Confuse Volatility With Risk
Assess Risk Tolerance
Measuring Volatility
Which Beta to Use
Do Not Use Beta for Timing
Favor Volatility Over Margin
Minimizing Trading Risks
Limit Your Losses
Make Use of Stops
Keep Cash Reserves
Limit Exposure to Thinly Traded Stocks
Avoid Short Selling
Investigate Before Acting on Any Hot Tip
Learn How to Identify a Weakening Stock
Handle Red-Hot Stocks With the Greatest Care
Protect Yourself During a Blow-Off Move
Use Options
Sell Call Options to Decrease the Cost Basis
Risks and Rewards of Call Options
Risks and Rewards of Put Options
Chapter 18: AI in Stock Investing
AI Evolution in the Stock Market
History
Recent Developments
Trading and Analysis
Algorithmic Trading
Predictive Analytics
Quantitative Analysis
Pattern Recognition
Market Forecasting
Alternative Data Sources
Operations and Market Oversight
Market Surveillance
Dynamic Pricing
Portfolio Management
Risk Management
Fraud Detection
Interactive AI Applications
Natural Language Processing
Customer Service and Chatbots
Chapter 19: AI Risks and How to Mitigate Them
Risks
Algorithmic Bias and Opacity
Overreliance on Historical Data
Transparency
Lack of Interpretability
Data Bias
Cybersecurity Threats
Market Manipulation
Systematic Risks
Ethical Concerns
Lack of Human Oversight
Legal and Regulatory Challenges
How to Mitigate Risks
Algorithmic Bias
Overreliance on Historical Data
Transparency
Lack of Interpretability
Data Bias
Cybersecurity Threats
Market Manipulation
Systematic Risks
Ethical Concerns
Lack of Human Oversight
Legal and Regulatory Challenges
AI Risk Mitigation in the Stock Market
Index

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