Social Security
Beschreibung
Many of us suspect that Social Security faces eventual bankruptcy. But the government projects its future finances using long outdated methods. Employing a more up-to-date approach, Jagadeesh Gokhale here argues that the program faces insolvency far sooner than previously thought.
To assess Social Security's fate more accurately under current and alternative policies, Gokhale constructs a detailed simulation of the forces shaping American demographics and the economy to project their future evolution. He then uses this simulation to analyze six prominent Social Security reform packages-two liberal, two centrist, and two conservative-to demonstrate how far they would restore the program's financial health and which population groups would be helped or hurt in the process.
Arguments over Social Security have raged for decades, but they have taken place in a relative informational vacuum; Social Security provides the necessary bedrock of analysis that will prove vital for anyone with a stake in this important debate.
Weitere Details
Weitere Ausgaben
Inhalt
- Intro
- Contents
- List of Tables
- List of Figures
- I. Issues in Evaluating Social Security's Finances
- Chapter 1. The Simmering Social Security Reform Debate
- Chapter 2. Simulating U.S. Demographics and Economics: Beginning in 1970
- Chapter 3. Forward Motion: Demographic Transition, 1971-2006
- Appendix 3.1. Mortality Rate Calculations
- Appendix 3.2. Estimating Fertility Rates by Female Race, Age, and Education
- Appendix 3.3. Marriage and Divorce
- Appendix 3.4. Labor Force Status Transitions
- Appendix 3.5. Calibration of Immigrants' Characteristics
- Chapter 4. Peering into the Future
- Chapter 5. A Framework for Simulating Annual Nominal Earnings
- Appendix 5.2. Simulating Workers' "Effective Labor Inputs" in 1970
- Appendix 5.3. Regression for Simulating Life-Cycle "Core Labor Input" Trajectories
- Chapter 6. Simulating Social Security's Finances
- Appendix 6.1. The Social Security Tax and Benefit Calculator
- Chapter 7. Micromeasures of Social Security's Financial Condition
- II. Issues in Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals
- Chapter 8. Liberal Proposal 1 by Robert M. Ball: "A Golden Opportunity for the New Congress
- Appendix 8.1. Estate Tax Revenue Projections for the Robert M. Ball Reform Proposal
- Chapter 9. Liberal Proposal 2 by Peter A. Diamond and Peter R.Orszag: "A Balanced Approach"
- Appendix 9.1. Incorporating Diamond-Orszag Reform Elements into DEMSIM
- Chapter 10. Centrist Proposal 1 by Representatives Jim Kolbe, Charles Stenholm, and Allen Boyd: "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act"
- Chapter 11. Centrist Proposal 2 by Jeffrey Liebman, Maya MacGuineas, and Andrew Samwick: "A Nonpartisan Approach to Reforming Social Security"
- Chapter 12. Conservative Proposal 1 by the President G. W.Bush Commission to Strengthen Social Security: Model 2
- Appendix 12.1. Benefit Offset Calculation under G. W. Bush Commission Model 2
- Chapter 13. Conservative Proposal 2 by Representative Paul Ryan: "Social Security Personal Savings Guarantee and Prosperity Act"
- Appendix 13.1. Progressive CPI Indexing Social Security Benefits under the Ryan Reform Proposal
- Chapter 14. Key Conclusions about Social Security's Financial Conditionand Reform Alternatives
- Acknowledgments
- Notes
- References
- Index
