Framing Decisions

List of Figures xi Preface xiii 1 An Evolving Decision-Making Paradigm 1 The Traditional Paradigm 3 The Real World 5 Rethinking Decision Making 8 The Cognitive Challenge 15 Adjusting to the New Paradigm 16 Conclusion: It Isn't Easy Getting It Right 18 2 Decisions and Decision Making 21 Different Perspectives on Decision Making 25 Rational, Irrational, Nonrational Decisions 38 Dealing with Unknowns 42 3 The Social Context of Decision Making 47 The Social Context 49 The Social Space of Decision Making 51 Allison's Multiple Perspectives on Decision Making 52 The Link Between Stakeholder and Decision-Maker 55 The Implementation Challenge 56 Accommodating External Forces 57 Conclusion 58 4 The Organizational Dimension 61 Organizational Structure 62 Organizational Process 69 People in Organizations 71 Organizational Culture 72 Conclusion 85 5 The Moral Dimension 87 Broad Categories of Moral Failings 89 Moral Hazard 101 Principal-Agent Dilemma 107 Morality, Ethics, and Legality: They Are Diff erent 109 Last Word 111 6 People as Decision-Makers 115 Factors That Affect How Individuals Make Decisions 116 A Unique Perspective on Personality and Decision Making: ElliottJaques, Human Capability, and Time Span of Discretion 135 Conclusion 138 7 The Wisdom-and Foolishness-of Crowds141 Individual Versus Group Decision-Participation Spectrum 141 Making Decisions in Groups 148 Degrees of Consensus 150 Defining Consensus 150 Reaching a Decision 159 The Wisdom and Foolishness of Crowds 162 Honeybee Decision Making 173 8 The Biology of Decision Making 177 Brain Basics 178 The Lazy Brain 179 Visual Illusions: What You See Isn't What You Get 186 Examples of Visual Illusions 189 Brain Deception Beyond Visual Illusions 197 The Maturing Brain 200 Conclusion 207 9 Toward an Empirically Rooted Understanding of DecisionMaking 211 In the Beginning: Toward an Empirical View 213 Evidence of Unconscious Deliberation in Decision Making: ThreeEmpirical Approaches 214 The Contribution of Empirical Research: Where Do We Stand?228 Empirical Research on Decision Making in the Neurosciences232 The Contribution of Neuropsychology Research: Where Do We Stand?241 The Need for Research on Decisions of Consequence 242 10 Seven Lessons 247 Seven Lessons for Highly Effective Decision-Makers 248 Last Word 258 References 261 Acknowledgments 267 The Author 269 Index 271