The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Name: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Brand: Princeton University Press
Price: 97.49 EUR
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John H. Cochrane(Autor*in)

Princeton University Press

1. Auflage

Erschienen am 17. Januar 2023

584 Seiten

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Inhalt

Cover
Contents
Preface
Notation
Part I. The Fiscal Theory
Introduction
1. A Two-Period Model
1.1 The Last Day
1.2 Intuition of the One-Period Model
1.3 A Two-Period Model and Present Value
1.4 Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Inflation
1.5 Fiscal Policy Debt Sales
1.6 Debt Reactions and a Price Level Target
1.7 Fiscal Policy Changes Monetary Policy
1.8 Budget Constraints and Active versus Passive Policies
1.9 Active versus Passive with a Debt Rule
2. An Intertemporal Model
2.1 The Intertemporal Model
2.2 Dynamic Intuition
2.3 Equilibrium Formation
2.4 Fiscal and Monetary Policy
2.5 The Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy
2.6 Interest Rate Rules
2.7 Fiscal Policy and Debt
2.8 The Central Bank and the Treasury
2.9 The Flat Supply Curve
2.10 Fiscal Stimulus
3. A Bit of Generality
3.1 Long-Term Debt
3.2 Ratios to GDP and a Focus on Inflation
3.3 Risk and Discounting
3.4 Money
3.5 Linearizations
3.6 Continuous Time
4. Debt, Deficits, Discount Rates, and Inflation
4.1 U.S. Surpluses and Debt
4.2 The Surplus Process-Stylized Facts
4.3 Surplus Process Estimates
4.4 The Roots of Inflation
5. Fiscal Theory in Sticky Price Models
5.1 The Simple New-Keynesian Model
5.2 Long-Term Debt
5.3 Neutrality, and Higher or Lower Inflation?
5.4 A Surplus Process
5.5 Responses and Rules
5.6 Alternative Surplus Processes
5.7 Continuous Time
5.8 Review and Preview
6. Fiscal Constraints
6.1 The Present Value Laffer Curve
6.2 Discount Rates
6.3 Crashes and Breakouts
6.4 What If r&g?
6.5 Assets and Liabilities
7. Long-Term Debt Dynamics
7.1 Forward Guidance and Bond Price Targets
7.2 Bond Quantities
7.3 Bond Sales and Bond Price Targets
7.4 A General Formula
7.5 Constraints on Policy
7.6 Quantitative Easing and Friends
7.7 A Look at the Maturity Structure
Part II. Assets, Rules, and Institutions
8. Assets and Choices
8.1 Indexed Debt, Foreign Debt
8.2 Currency Pegs and Gold Standard
8.3 The Corporate Finance of Government Debt
8.4 Maturity, Pegs, Promises, and Runs
8.5 Default
8.6 Central Bank Independence
9. Better Rules
9.1 Inflation Targets
9.2 A Simple Model of an Inflation Target
9.3 Fiscal Rules
9.4 Targeting the Spread
9.5 A Price Level Target via Indexed Debt
9.6 A CPI Standard?
10. Balance Sheets and Pots of Assets
10.1 Three Pots of Assets
10.2 AManaged Central Bank Portfolio
10.3 Balance Sheets, Contingent Transfers, and the ECB
10.4 Assets
10.5 Backing
10.6 After Government Money
10.7 How Much Money Do We Need, Really?
Part III. Monetary Doctrines, Institutions, and Some Histories
11. Monetary Policies
11.1 The Composition versus the Level of Government Debt
11.2 Open Market Operations
11.3 An Elastic Currency
11.4 Balance Sheet Control
11.5 Real Bills
12. Interest Rate Targets
12.1 Interest Rate Pegs
12.2 Taylor Rules
13. Monetary Institutions
13.1 Inside Money
13.2 Financial Innovation
13.3 Interest-Paying Money and the Friedman Rule
13.4 Separating Debt from Money
13.5 A Frictionless Benchmark
14. Stories and Histories
14.1 Helicopters
14.2 Hyperinflations and Currency Crashes
14.3 Ends of Inflations
14.4 Episodes of War and Parity
15 Esthetics and Philosophy
Part IV. Money, Interest Rates, and Regimes
16. The New-Keynesian Model
16.1 The Simplest Model
16.2 Inflation Targets and Equilibrium Selection
16.3 What's Wrong with Hyperinflations?
16.4 Central Bank Destabilization?
16.5 Identification
16.6 Observational Equivalence
16.7 Responses
16.8 A Full Model and the Lower Bound
16.9 Identification Patches
16.10 Equilibrium Selection Patches
17. Keynesian Models with Sticky Prices
17.1 New versus Old Keynesian Models
17.2 Responses to Interest Rate Changes
17.3 Rational Expectations Responses with Policy Rules
17.4 Full Model Responses
17.5 Optimal Policy, Determinacy, and Selection
18. History and Implications
18.1 New and Old-Keynesian Confusion
18.2 Adaptive Expectations?
18.3 Interest Rate Targets: A Summary
19. Monetarism
19.1 Equilibria and Regimes
19.2 Interest Elastic Money Demand and Multiple Equilibria
19.3 Money in Utility
19.4 Pruning Equilibria
19.5 Cash in Advance Model
19.6 Unpleasant Arithmetic and Fiscal Theory
19.7 Seigniorage and Hyperinflation
19.8 Monetary History
20. The Zero Bound
20.1 The Experiment
20.2 Zero Bound Puzzles
20.3 Zero Bound Summary and Implications
21. The COVID-19 Inflation
22. Observational Equivalence
22.1 Equivalence and Regimes
22.2 Implications Overview
22.3 Regime Tests and Model-Based Estimates
22.4 Plausibility and Other Evidence
22.5 Laugh Tests
22.6 Chicken and Regimes
22.7 Inconsistent or Undetermined Regimes
22.8 Regimes and Practices
Part V. Past, Present, and Future
23. Past and Present
23.1 The Rise of Fiscal Theory
23.2 Precursors
23.3 Disputes
24. Tests, Models, and Applications
24.1 Tests
24.2 Fiscal Theory Models
24.3 Exchange Rates
24.4 Applications
25. The Future
25.1 Episodes
25.2 Theory and Models
Bibliography
Index

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