A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forces that shape markets
There has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a great part in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, which conventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain. However, these forces, sometimes labeled 'animal spirits' or 'irrational exuberance, have remained elusive - until now. The Mystery of Market Movements provides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit from changes in human investment behaviour based on the workings of the collective unconscious.
Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influential ideas - archetypes - to explain how they form investor's perceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. The Mystery of Market Movements provides;
* A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes based on Carl Jung's theories and empirical case studies that highlights and assesses the influences of the collective unconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeists
* For the first time being able to objectively measure the impact of archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view to provide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. This is done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop a measurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of the unconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism, drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowing for quantification into time series
* The book is supplemented with an online resource that presents continuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictive capabilities to major financial indexes
Investors are often unaware of the real reasons behind their own financial decisions. This book explains why psychological drivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investment behaviour but also political, cultural and social trends. Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curve and profit from market tendencies that more traditional methods completely overlook.
Reihe
Auflage
Sprache
Verlagsort
Zielgruppe
Produkt-Hinweis
Fadenheftung
Gewebe-Einband
mit Schutzumschlag
Maße
Höhe: 231 mm
Breite: 157 mm
Dicke: 18 mm
Gewicht
ISBN-13
978-1-118-84498-4 (9781118844984)
Schweitzer Klassifikation
NIKLAS HAGEBACK has extensive experience in the financial sector working at tier-one financial institutions and consulting firms, such as Deutsche Bank, KPMG, and Goldman Sachs, holding regional risk management and oversight roles in both Europe and Asia. This included leading the implementation of operational risk and economic capital frameworks and also engaging in the public debate through a number of articles published, public presentations and regulatory lobbying.
He currently resides in Hong Kong where he is running a money management firm as well as managing a portfolio of financial software start-up firms with a special focus on research and product development in the area of behavioural finance.
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1
CHAPTER 1 Psychology: A Primer 7
Some Key Psychological Concepts 9
The Unconscious 13
Conclusion 21
Notes 22
References 24
CHAPTER 2 Archetypes and Symbols 27
Carl Gustav Jung 27
Archetypes: A Background 31
Why Do Archetypes Activate? 40
Symbols: The Tangible Manifestations of Archetypes 45
Conclusion 50
Notes 50
References 52
CHAPTER 3 How Archetypes Influence and Impact Behaviour 55
Characteristics of the Activation of an Archetype 55
Projections and Other Defense Mechanisms 56
The Role of Scapegoats 58
Shadow Projections 58
Zeitgeist 59
Mass Hysteria and Panics 62
Conclusion 65
Notes 65
References 66
CHAPTER 4 Archetypal Influences in the Financial Markets 67
Financial Bubbles 67
Animal Spirits 71
An Archetypal Perspective on the Development of Financial Bubbles 74
Conclusion 77
Notes 77
References 78
CHAPTER 5 Existing Approaches to Capture Sentiments in Financial Markets, and Why They Do Not Work 81
Behavioural Finance 82
Technical Analysis 83
Efficient Market Hypothesis 84
Black Swans 86
Social Mood 87
Emotion Words 89
Conclusion 89
Notes 90
References 91
CHAPTER 6 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part I: Building Blocks 93
Linking Symbols to Archetypes 96
Capturing Symbols 98
Conclusion 107
Notes 108
References 109
CHAPTER 7 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part II: The Data 111
Data Sources 112
Capture and Cleansing 114
Relativisation of Symbol Words 119
Two Article Examples 120
Conclusion 128
Notes 128
References 129
CHAPTER 8 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part III: The Model 131
Signal Theory 133
Correlation Testing 136
Testing the Time Series against Known Cycles 138
Constructing Archetypal Composite Indexes 138
Backtesting and Calibration 141
Conclusion 142
Notes 143
References 143
CHAPTER 9 Examples of Archetypal Influences on the Formation of Financial Bubbles 145
The Dot-Com Bubble 148
The US Property Bubble 155
Conclusion 159
Notes 160
References 161
CHAPTER 10 Conclusion 163
How Archetypes Play Out 164
Areas for Further Research 165
Time Constants 166
Multiple Archetypes 166
Tipping Points 167
Subliminal Stimulation 168
Archetypal Influences in Other Areas 169
Archetypal Influences in Other Cultures and Languages 170
Are the Collective Unconscious and Its Archetypes Constraining Free Will? 171
Influences on Finance 172
About the Author 175
Index 177
