Probabilities

Preface v 1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways1 The Probabilist 1 The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4 The Probabilist's Rule Book 9 Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14 Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20 Liar, Liar 24 Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches 28 Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 33 The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 37 Final Word 43 2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles45 Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 45 Goats and Gloats 50 Happy Birthday 52 Typical Atypicalities 57 Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns 61 The British Snob and I 65 Final Word 70 3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape?71 Probable Improbabilities 71 Saddam and I 75 Taking Tiny Risks 80 A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 82 Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 84 Clumps in Space 89 Final Word 91 4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue93 Driving Miss Daisy 93 Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 96 Bayes and My Green Card 98 Objection Your Honor 103 Final Word 112 5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 115 Great Expectations 115 Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 123 Expect the Unexpected 129 Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 132 Deviant Behavior 138 Final Word 143 6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating MathematicalResults 145 Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 145 Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 149 Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 155 Let's Get Serious 162 Bells and Bread 166 How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 171 Final Word 173 7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You175 French Letters 175 Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 179 Craps: Not so Dicey After All 184 Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 187 Math for Losers 193 Win Money and Lose Friends 200 Final Word 210 8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 211 Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 211 4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 215 Polls Gone Wild 220 The Lawsuit and the Lurker 225 Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 230 Snooping in the Abbot's Garden 237 Final Word 242 9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 245 Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 245 Random and Not-So-Random Digits 252 Number One Is Number One 253 Is Random Really Random? 256 Final Word 261 Index 263