Avoiding the Apocalypse
The Future of the Two Koreas
Published on 1. June 2000
456 pages
978-0-88132-303-0 (ISBN)
Description
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden-and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
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06/2000
The Peterson Institute for International Economics
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Person
Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies, has been associated with the Institute since 1985. From 2009 through 2012, he served as the Institute's deputy director. His research addresses a wide range of topics at the interstice of economics, political science, and international relations. His areas of geographical knowledge and interest include Asia and Africa where he has lived and worked, and the Middle East. In the past he has written extensively on the economies of Japan, Korea, and China, and is unique among American economists in having devoted serious scholarly effort to the problems of North Korea and the prospects for Korean unification.
Content
- Cover
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1: Introduction
- Divergent Paths
- Three Crises
- Prospects for the Future
- Tour de Horizon
- Chapter 2: The South Korean Economy until 1997
- Economic Policy in the 1960s
- Economic Policy in the 1970s
- Economic Policy under President Chun
- The Democracy Pledge and Twenty-five Years of Development
- Precrisis Economic Policy, 1987 to 1997
- Conclusions
- Chapter 3: The North Korean Economy
- Organization of the North Korean Economy
- Statistical Comparison of the North and South Korean Economies
- Crisis Response
- International Economic Relations
- Current Reforms
- Conclusions
- Chapter 4: The Nuclear Confrontation
- The Energy Situation
- The Nuclear Program
- The Agreed Framework
- The Suspect Site and the Missile Test
- Evaluation
- Chapter 5: The Slow-Motion Famine in the North
- The Food Balance
- Food for Peace
- The People's Republic of Misery
- Chapter 6: The Financial Crisis in the South
- Financial Fragility
- The Bubble Story
- The Crisis
- Post-Crisis Developments
- Recovery
- Conclusions
- Chapter 7: The Prospect for Successful Reform in the North
- Reform in the North
- A General Equilibrium Perspective on Reform
- The Likelihood of Reform
- Chapter 8: The Implications of North Korean Collapse
- The German Experience
- Relevance to Korea
- A General Equilibrium Perspective on Collapse and Absorption
- Conceptualizing the Costs and Benefits of Unification
- Dynamic Results
- Policy Lessons of the German Experience for South Korea
- Thinking Beyond the German Case
- Chapter 9: Can the North Muddle Through?
- Socialism in One Family
- Muddling Through in Our Own Style
- Sustainability
- Chapter 10: Conclusions
- North Korea
- South Korea
- Other Actors
- Final Thoughts
- References
- Appendix
- Index
