Modelling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism

International tourism has grown rapidly over the last twenty years, but the rate of growth has varied considerably from year to year, with some countries experiencing declines in their tourist arrivals. Planning under these circumstances is both extremely difficult and important. In order to plan successfully, accurate forecasts of tourist flows are required. This book sets out to compare the accuracy of seven forecasting methods - six univariate time series techniques and econometrics - when applied to international tourism demand data. The estimated parameters in the econometric models also permits an evaluation of the impact of factors such as income, prices, exchange rates and currency restrictions on tourism demand.