Minding the Weather
How Expert Forecasters Think
Published on 15. August 2023
Book
Paperback/Softback
488 pages
978-0-262-54881-6 (ISBN)
Description
A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science.
This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance.
The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.
This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance.
The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Cambridge (Massachusetts)
United States
Publishing group
MIT Press Ltd
Product notice
Paperback (trade)
Illustrations
82 B&W ILLUS., 21 COLOR PLATES
Dimensions
Height: 229 mm
Width: 178 mm
Thickness: 27 mm
Weight
843 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-262-54881-6 (9780262548816)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Robert R. Hoffman | Daphne S. Ladue | H. Michael Mogil
Minding the Weather
How Expert Forecasters Think
E-Book
08/2017
MIT Press
€53.99
Available for download
Persons
Robert R. Hoffman, J. Gregory Trafton, Paul J. Roebber, H. Michael Mogil, and Daphne S. LaDue
Content
About the Authors ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Introduction 1
2 What Is the Forecasting Workspace Like? 27
3 How Do People Come to Be Forecasters? 49
4 How Do Forecasters Describe How They Reason? 81
5 How Well Do Forecasters (and Forecasts) Perform? 101
6 What Characterizes Expertise? 129
7 How Do Forecasters Get to Be Expert Forecasters? 151
8 What Does Research on Forecaster Knowledge Tell Us? 191
9 What Does Research on Forecaster Perception Tell Us? 211
10 What Does Research on Forecaster Reasoning Tell Us? 243
11 Can a Machine Imitate the Human? 287
12 Can a Machine Replace the Human? 305
13 Forecaster-Computer Interdependence 337
14 Conclusions and Prospects 349
Appendix A: List of Acronyms 361
Appendix B: Extended Narratives of Two Cases of Forecasting Severe Weather 365
Appendix C: Example Synoptic Analyses of GOES Visible Images 389
Appendix D: A Case Study in Human-Machine Interdependence 395
Appendix E: References on Visualization Design and Display Technology 399
References 409
Index 463
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Introduction 1
2 What Is the Forecasting Workspace Like? 27
3 How Do People Come to Be Forecasters? 49
4 How Do Forecasters Describe How They Reason? 81
5 How Well Do Forecasters (and Forecasts) Perform? 101
6 What Characterizes Expertise? 129
7 How Do Forecasters Get to Be Expert Forecasters? 151
8 What Does Research on Forecaster Knowledge Tell Us? 191
9 What Does Research on Forecaster Perception Tell Us? 211
10 What Does Research on Forecaster Reasoning Tell Us? 243
11 Can a Machine Imitate the Human? 287
12 Can a Machine Replace the Human? 305
13 Forecaster-Computer Interdependence 337
14 Conclusions and Prospects 349
Appendix A: List of Acronyms 361
Appendix B: Extended Narratives of Two Cases of Forecasting Severe Weather 365
Appendix C: Example Synoptic Analyses of GOES Visible Images 389
Appendix D: A Case Study in Human-Machine Interdependence 395
Appendix E: References on Visualization Design and Display Technology 399
References 409
Index 463