Flawed Strategy
Why Smart Leaders Make Bad Decisions
1st Edition
Published on 17. January 2025
Book
Paperback/Softback
208 pages
978-1-5095-6670-9 (ISBN)
Description
Why did Volodymyr Zelensky doubt that Russia was preparing a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022? Why did British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain decide to 'do business with Herr Hitler' in Munich in 1938? And how was it that Israeli elites dismissed intelligence warnings of the Hamas attack in 2023? Had they not learned their lesson from the Egyptian-Syrian attack on Yom Kippur fifty years earlier?
In all these cases, smart decision makers misjudged their adversaries, largely because they failed to understand how their enemies' actions and strategies were shaped by different values and beliefs to their own. We may think such beliefs are irrational merely because we do not share them. They may appear confusing and ill judged. But as Beatrice Heuser ably shows in this pithy book, strategy making is a tricky business, marred by bias, irrationality, bureaucratic politics, colliding government interests, and complex procedures and structures. Assessing our adversaries as not only irrational but also illogical is a dangerous game that can lead to flawed and, on occasions, catastrophically bad decisions. This book explains why.
In all these cases, smart decision makers misjudged their adversaries, largely because they failed to understand how their enemies' actions and strategies were shaped by different values and beliefs to their own. We may think such beliefs are irrational merely because we do not share them. They may appear confusing and ill judged. But as Beatrice Heuser ably shows in this pithy book, strategy making is a tricky business, marred by bias, irrationality, bureaucratic politics, colliding government interests, and complex procedures and structures. Assessing our adversaries as not only irrational but also illogical is a dangerous game that can lead to flawed and, on occasions, catastrophically bad decisions. This book explains why.
Reviews / Votes
"Using admirably straightforward language, Beatrice Heuser explains why time and again seemingly intelligent and well-informed leaders make poor strategic decisions and thereby wreck people's lives. I urge the wannabe leaders of tomorrow to read her book and learn from the many examples she gives of how making unwarranted assumptions about the adversary and failure to correct for biases leads to disaster."Sir David Omand GCB, King's College London
"Richly animated with historical and contemporary vignettes, Flawed Strategy offers a compelling analysis of the challenges associated with assessing adversary intentions. It is an essential read for scholars, students, and practitioners of strategy."
Sara Moller, Georgetown University
"This provocative book shows that attempts to analyse adversarial decision makers in mechanistic terms, either as rational actors driven by mathematical adherence to cost-benefit economics, or in adherence to some international relations theory, are fallacious. It shows that decision-making is emotive, political, and all too human. This book exposes, with searing insight, the biases, influences, and outright failures that punctuate our history."
Robert Johnson, University of Oxford
"Beatrice Heuser is one of the leading strategic thinkers of this generation. Her clarity of thinking and incisive analytical mind is on full display in this excellent tome. It is both a guide for policy makers and a stark warning about the dangers of foggy thinking."
John Bew, King's College London
"Punchy and provocative"
Foreign Affairs
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Oxford
United Kingdom
Publishing group
John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Target group
Professional and scholarly
Dimensions
Height: 213 mm
Width: 138 mm
Thickness: 16 mm
Weight
266 gr
ISBN-13
978-1-5095-6670-9 (9781509566709)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Book
01/2025
1st Edition
Polity Press
€68.50
Available immediately
E-Book
01/2025
1st Edition
Wiley-Scrivener
€17.99
Available for download
Person
Beatrice Heuser is Distinguished Professor in the Brussels School of Governance at the Free University of Brussels. She teaches Strategy at the General Staff Academy of the German armed forces.
Content
Acknowledgements
Preface
Introduction
1 The Rational/Irrational Actor Fallacy
2 Our Biases
3 Knowns and Unknowns (And How We Use Them)
4 Flaws and Quandries of Strategy Making
Epilogue
Select Bibliography
Endnotes
Preface
Introduction
1 The Rational/Irrational Actor Fallacy
2 Our Biases
3 Knowns and Unknowns (And How We Use Them)
4 Flaws and Quandries of Strategy Making
Epilogue
Select Bibliography
Endnotes