Business and Competitive Analysis
Effective Application of New and Classic Methods
2nd Edition
Published on 12. January 2015
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624 pages
978-0-13-310100-3 (ISBN)
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English
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Upper Saddle River
United States
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ISBN-13
978-0-13-310100-3 (9780133101003)
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Schweitzer Classification
Content
Preface xxix
SECTION 1: ESSENTIALS OF PERFORMING BUSINESS AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
Chapter 1 Business and Competitive Analysis: Definition, Context, and Benefits 3
Understanding the Terminology 4
Competitive 4
Strategic 5
Analysis 6
Intelligence 8
Analysis as a Component in the Intelligence Cycle 10
Competitive Analysis and Decision Making 11
The Competitive Context Facing Contemporary Enterprises 13
Contemporary Context Facing the Analyst 14
Shifting Organizational Priorities for Analysts and Analysis 16
Summary 17
References 18
Chapter 2 Performing the Analysis Process 22
Understanding the "Customers" of Your Analysis Work 23
Defining the Analysis Problem 25
Identifying the Scope of the Analysis 26
Intelligence Analysis at Differing Organizational Levels 31
Strategic Intelligence Analysis 32
Tactical Intelligence Analysis 32
Operational Intelligence Analysis 33
Micro Intelligence Analysis 33
Evaluating the Inputs to Analysis 34
Making Sense of the Analysis 37
Facts 37
Perceptions 38
Beliefs 38
Assumptions 38
Projections 38
Synthesis 39
Infrastructure to Support the Analysis Process 39
Intelligence Solutions 40
Limitations of Intelligence Solutions 40
Managing the Internal Network 41
Developing and Managing the External Network 42
Proactivity, Efficiency, and Perpetual Learning 43
Summary 44
Fleisher and Bensoussan's 10 Commandments for Business and Competitive Analysis 45
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Chapter 3 Avoiding Analysis Pitfalls by Developing Analytical Fitness 48
Trade-Offs Made by Analysts 48
Analysis of Failure 49
Failure Location 49
Sources of Failure 50
Four-Level Hierarchical Model of Analysis Failures 51
Individual Analyst-Level Failures 53
Analysis Task-Level Failures 55
Internal Organizational-Level Failures 57
External Environment-Level Failures 59
The Movement to a New Generation of Analysis 62
Overcoming the Barriers and Improving Performance through Developing Analytical Fitness 63
Summary 65
References 66
Chapter 4 Communicating Analysis Results 69
The Art of Effective Communication 69
Packaging the Results of Your Analysis 71
Delivering the Message 71
Face-to-Face Briefings 72
Written Reports and Briefings 72
Presentations in Meetings, Seminars, and Workshops 72
E-Mail/Instant Messaging 73
Web-Based Intelligence Solutions and Systems 73
Exercises and Planning Sessions 74
Common Products and Reports Used by Analysts 74
News Bulletins and Newsletters 74
Assessments 76
Competitor Profiles 76
Battlecards 76
Strategic Impact Worksheets 77
Intelligence Briefings 77
Situation Analysis 78
Special Intelligence Summaries 78
Creating the Report 78
Communication Difficulties Faced by Analysts 79
Effective Listening and Answering the Questions of Decision Makers 86
Conduct Communication Follow-Up and Gather Feedback 87
Pragmatic Considerations 87
Summary 89
References 90
Chapter 5 Applying the FAROUT Method 92
Applying the Techniques 94
An Evaluation Scheme for Assessing the Adequacy of Tools and Techniques: FAROUT 95
Using the FAROUT Rating System 98
References 101
SECTION II: NEW AND CLASSIC METHODS OF BUSINESS AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
Chapter 6 A Better SWOT Analysis 105
Background 105
Strategic Rationale and Implications 107
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 110
Strengths and Advantages 111
Weaknesses and Limitations 112
Process for Applying the SWOT Technique 113
Worksheet 119
FAROUT Summary 120
Related Tools and Techniques 122
References 122
Chapter 7 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 123
Background 123
Strategic Rationale and Implications 124
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 125
Strengths and Advantages 126
Weaknesses and Limitations 127
Process for Applying the Technique 128
Step 1: Identify the Possible Hypotheses to Be Considered 128
Step 2: List the Significant Evidence in Support of and Against Each Hypothesis 128
Step 3: Prepare a Matrix with Hypotheses Across the Top and Evidence Down the Side 129
Step 4: Refine the Matrix 130
Step 5: Draw Tentative Conclusions About the Relative Likelihood of Each Hypothesis by Trying to Disprove It 131
Step 6: Analyze How Sensitive Your Conclusion Is to a Few Critical Pieces of Evidence 132
Step 7: Report Conclusions 132
Step 8: Identify Milestones for Future Observation That May Indicate Events Are Taking a Different Course Than Expected 133
Summary 133
Worksheet 133
FAROUT Summary 134
Related Tools and Techniques 136
References 136
Chapter 8 Benchmarking Analysis 137
Background 137
Strategic Rationale and Implications 138
Taxonomy of Benchmarking 139
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 143
Strengths and Advantages 144
Weaknesses and Limitations 145
Process for Applying the Technique 147
Step 1: Identify the Processes That Need to Be Benchmarked 147
Step 2: Identify Performance Measures 148
Step 3: Evaluate Your Own Firm's Capabilities 150
Step 4: Identify Firms to Be Benchmarked 150
Step 5: Conduct Research of Selected Firms 151
Step 6: Analyze the Collected Data and Develop an Action Plan 152
Worksheet 155
FAROUT Summary 156
Related Tools and Techniques 157
References 157
Chapter 9 Business Model Analysis 159
Background 160
Strategic Rationale and Implications 161
The Business Model 162
Classification of Business Models 164
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 167
Strengths and Advantages 167
Weaknesses and Limitations 168
Process for Applying the Technique 168
Step 1: Articulate the Value Proposition 168
Step 2: Specify the Target Segment 170
Step 3: Determine Competitors 170
Step 4: Evaluate the Value Chain and the Cost Model 171
Step 5: Evaluate the Value Network 173
Step 6: Determine the Revenue Model for the Firm 174
Step 7: Determine the Critical Success Factors for the Industry 175
Step 8: Complete an Analysis Grid Detailing Each Element of the Business Model 175
Worksheet 179
FAROUT Summary 179
Related Tools and Techniques 181
References 181
Chapter 10 Competitive Positioning Analysis 183
Background 183
Strategic Rationale and Implications 184
Develop and Build on the Firm's Position 185
Maintain and Hold the Firm's Strong Market Position 186
Defend a Dominant Position 186
Withdraw from a Market 186
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 187
Strengths and Advantages 187
Weaknesses and Limitations 188
Process for Applying the Technique 189
Step 1: Identify Current Strategy and Market/Product/Project Parameters 190
Step 2: Conduct Analysis 192
Step 3: Review Results and Formulate Positioning Strategy 193
Summary 195
Worksheet 197
FAROUT Summary 198
Related Tools and Techniques 200
References 200
Chapter 11 Competitor Cash Flow Analysis 202
Background 202
Strategic Rationale and Implications 204
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 206
Strengths and Advantages 207
Weaknesses and Limitations 208
Processes for Applying the Technique 209
Future Cash Flow Analysis 210
Tip Sheet on Cash Flow Analysis 211
Worksheet 218
FAROUT Summary 219
Related Tools and Techniques 220
References 221
Chapter 12 Critical Success Factors Analysis 222
Background 222
Strategic Rationale and Implications 224
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 229
Strengths and Advantages 229
Weaknesses and Limitations 230
Process for Applying the Technique 231
Leidecker and Bruno's Identification Techniques 232
Determining Critical Success Factor Importance 236
Worksheet 238
FAROUT Summary 239
Related Tools and Techniques 240
References 241
Chapter 13 Driving Forces Analysis 243
Background 243
Strategic Rationale and Implications 244
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 244
Strengths and Advantages 245
Weaknesses and Limitations 246
Process for Applying the Technique 246
Step 1: Identifying an Industry's DFs 247
Step 2: Assessing the Impact of the DFs 250
Worksheet 258
FAROUT Summary 259
Related Tools and Techniques 260
References 261
Chapter 14 Event and Timeline Analysis 263
Background 263
Strategic Rationale and Implications 264
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 265
Strengths and Advantages 265
Weaknesses and Limitations 266
Process for Applying the Technique 267
Plot the Target Firm's History of Key Events on a Line 267
Develop a Chronological Table of Events 269
Develop an Events Matrix 270
Event and Causal Factors Analysis 270
Worksheet 278
FAROUT Summary 278
Related Tools and Techniques 280
References 280
Chapter 15 Historiographical Analysis 282
Background 282
Strategic Rationale and Implications 283
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 285
Strengths and Advantages 286
Weaknesses and Limitations 287
Process for Applying the Technique 288
Step 1: Develop a General Proposition About the Analytical Target 288
Step 2: Collect Primary Information 289
Step 3: Collect and Relate Secondary Information 289
Step 4: Cross-Reference and Select the Best Sources for the Third Draft 290
Step 5: Analysis, Validation, and Reporting 290
Worksheet 292
FAROUT Summary 293
Related Tools and Techniques 294
References 295
Chapter 16 Indications and Warning Analysis 296
Background 296
Strategic Rationale and Implications 298
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 299
Strengths and Advantages 299
Weaknesses and Limitations 300
Process for Applying the Technique 302
Step 1: Establish a Set of Indicators 302
Step 2: Establish Meaning Behind Indicators 304
Step 3: Validate and Rank Indicators Against Threshold Levels to Determine When Warnings Need to Be Issued 306
Step 4: Determine and Recommend Appropriate Firm Responses to the Warning 307
Worksheet 308
FAROUT Summary 309
Related Tools and Techniques 311
References 311
Chapter 17 Industry Fusion Analysis 313
Background 313
General Environment 314
Operating Environment/Industry Analysis 317
Internal Environment 318
Strategic Rationale and Implications 318
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 320
Strengths and Advantages 321
Weaknesses and Limitations 322
Process for Applying the Technique 323
Worksheet 330
FAROUT Summary 331
Related Tools and Techniques 332
References 332
Chapter 18 Interpretation of Statistical Analysis 335
Background 335
Strategic Rationale and Implications 336
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 337
Strengths and Advantages 338
Weaknesses and Limitations 338
Process for Applying the Technique 339
Percentage Changes 339
Percentiles and Quartiles 341
Normal Distribution and Bell Curve 341
Summarizing Data with One Value-Central Tendency 342
Standard Deviation 344
Comparing Data 345
Regression Analysis 346
Correlation 350
P-Values 351
Worksheet 351
FAROUT Summary 352
Related Tools and Techniques 353
References 354
Chapter 19 Linchpin Analysis 355
Background 355
Strategic Rationale and Implications 356
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 359
Strengths and Advantages 360
Weaknesses and Limitations 360
Process for Applying the Technique 361
Linchpin Assumption Sensitivity Analysis 362
Process for Using Linchpin Analysis in Assessing Risk 363
Worksheet 364
FAROUT Summary 365
Related Tools and Techniques 366
References 367
Chapter 20 McKinsey 7S Analysis 368
Background 368
Strategic Rationale and Implications 371
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 372
Strengths and Advantages 373
Weaknesses and Limitations 374
Process for Applying the Technique 375
Worksheet 381
FAROUT Summary 381
Related Tools and Techniques 383
References 383
Chapter 21 Product Line Analysis 385
Background 385
Strategic Rationale and Implications 386
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 386
Strengths and Advantages 387
Weaknesses and Limitations 388
Process for Applying the Technique 389
Step 1: Initial Product Audit 389
Step 2: Assess the Product Relative to Its Position in the Product Life Cycle 390
Worksheet 401
FAROUT Summary 403
Related Tools and Techniques 404
References 405
Chapter 22 Scenario Analysis 407
Background 407
Strategic Rationale and Implications 408
Methods for Generating Scenarios 408
Quantitative Method: Computer-Generated Econometric Model 409
Qualitative Methods 409
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 411
Strengths and Advantages 412
Weaknesses and Limitations 413
Processes for Applying the Technique 413
Worksheet 421
FAROUT Summary 422
Related Tools and Techniques 424
References 424
Chapter 23 SERVO Analysis 425
Background 425
Strategy 426
Environment 427
Resources 428
Values 430
Organization 431
Strategic Rationale and Implications 432
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 433
Strengths and Advantages 434
Weaknesses and Limitations 434
Process for Applying the Technique 435
Step 1: Evaluate the Current Performance of the Firm 435
Step 2: Assess the Current Strategy and Discern Whether Change Is Necessary 436
Step 3: Develop and Evaluate Strategic Options and Programs 439
Worksheet 442
FAROUT Summary 443
Related Tools and Techniques 444
References 445
Chapter 24 Shadowing 447
Background 447
Strategic Rationale and Implications 450
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 451
Strengths and Advantages 451
Weaknesses and Limitations 452
Process for Applying the Technique 454
Team Composition 454
Team Structure 455
Performance Goals 455
Shadowing 456
Developing a Shadow Market Plan 458
Mini Case Studies 461
Case 1: Deregulating Utility 461
Case 2: Packaged-Food Multinational 461
Case 3: Ready-to-Eat Foods 461
Case 4: Pharmaceutical Firm 462
Worksheet 462
FAROUT Summary 463
Related Tools and Techniques 464
References 465
Chapter 25 Strategic Relationship Analysis 466
Background 466
Strategic Rationale and Implications 469
Purposes Served by SRs 469
Two Key Strategic Relationship Processes 472
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 473
Strengths and Advantages 474
Weaknesses and Limitations 475
Process for Applying the Technique 475
Studying Your Own Firm's Relationship Formation Readiness 475
Studying a Rival's Relationships 478
Worksheet 485
FAROUT Summary 486
Related Tools and Techniques 487
References 488
Chapter 26 Supply Chain Management (SCM) Analysis 492
Background 493
Strategic Rationale and Implications 494
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 496
Strengths and Advantages 497
Weaknesses and Limitations 498
Process for Applying the Technique 499
Rules and Tools 501
Worksheet 507
FAROUT Summary 508
Related Tools and Techniques 510
References 510
Chapter 27 Technology Forecasting 513
Background 513
Strategic Rationale and Implications 515
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 518
Strengths and Advantages 518
Weaknesses and Limitations 519
Process for Applying the Technique 521
1. Expert Opinion 522
2. Trend Extrapolation 523
3. Growth Curves 525
4. Historical Analogy 526
5. Scenarios 526
6. Modelling, Simulations, and Gaming 526
7. Morphological Analysis 527
8. Relevance Trees 527
9. Monitoring 528
10. Creativity Stimulators 529
Using the Information 531
Worksheet 535
FAROUT Summary 535
Related Tools and Techniques 537
References 537
Chapter 28 War Gaming 539
Background 539
Strategic Rationale and Implications 540
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 541
Strengths and Advantages 542
Weaknesses and Limitations 543
Process for Applying the Technique 544
Step 1: Is a War Game the Way to Go? 545
Step 2: Getting a Business War Game Off the Ground 546
Step 3: Who Should Play? 548
Step 4: Preparing for Your War Game 548
Step 5: Playing the Game 549
Step 6: After the Game 550
Worksheet 552
FAROUT Summary 553
Related Tools and Techniques 554
References 555
Chapter 29 Win/Loss Analysis 556
Background 556
Strategic Rationale and Implications 557
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 559
Strengths and Advantages 560
Weaknesses and Limitations 561
Process for Applying the Technique 562
Step 1: Determine the Target Segments and Identify Prospects 562
Step 2: Understand Internal Cultural Issues 563
Step 3: Develop the Questionnaire 563
Step 4: Prepare for the Interviews 564
Step 5: Conduct Interviews 564
Step 6: Analyze and Interpret 565
Step 7: Disseminate 565
Worksheet 568
FAROUT Summary 570
Related Tools and Techniques 571
References 571
Index 573
The definitive practical guide to business and competitive analysis, now fully updated: all the tools, step-by-step instructions for using them, and expert guidance on choosing the right tool for every assignment!
SECTION 1: ESSENTIALS OF PERFORMING BUSINESS AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
Chapter 1 Business and Competitive Analysis: Definition, Context, and Benefits 3
Understanding the Terminology 4
Competitive 4
Strategic 5
Analysis 6
Intelligence 8
Analysis as a Component in the Intelligence Cycle 10
Competitive Analysis and Decision Making 11
The Competitive Context Facing Contemporary Enterprises 13
Contemporary Context Facing the Analyst 14
Shifting Organizational Priorities for Analysts and Analysis 16
Summary 17
References 18
Chapter 2 Performing the Analysis Process 22
Understanding the "Customers" of Your Analysis Work 23
Defining the Analysis Problem 25
Identifying the Scope of the Analysis 26
Intelligence Analysis at Differing Organizational Levels 31
Strategic Intelligence Analysis 32
Tactical Intelligence Analysis 32
Operational Intelligence Analysis 33
Micro Intelligence Analysis 33
Evaluating the Inputs to Analysis 34
Making Sense of the Analysis 37
Facts 37
Perceptions 38
Beliefs 38
Assumptions 38
Projections 38
Synthesis 39
Infrastructure to Support the Analysis Process 39
Intelligence Solutions 40
Limitations of Intelligence Solutions 40
Managing the Internal Network 41
Developing and Managing the External Network 42
Proactivity, Efficiency, and Perpetual Learning 43
Summary 44
Fleisher and Bensoussan's 10 Commandments for Business and Competitive Analysis 45
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Chapter 3 Avoiding Analysis Pitfalls by Developing Analytical Fitness 48
Trade-Offs Made by Analysts 48
Analysis of Failure 49
Failure Location 49
Sources of Failure 50
Four-Level Hierarchical Model of Analysis Failures 51
Individual Analyst-Level Failures 53
Analysis Task-Level Failures 55
Internal Organizational-Level Failures 57
External Environment-Level Failures 59
The Movement to a New Generation of Analysis 62
Overcoming the Barriers and Improving Performance through Developing Analytical Fitness 63
Summary 65
References 66
Chapter 4 Communicating Analysis Results 69
The Art of Effective Communication 69
Packaging the Results of Your Analysis 71
Delivering the Message 71
Face-to-Face Briefings 72
Written Reports and Briefings 72
Presentations in Meetings, Seminars, and Workshops 72
E-Mail/Instant Messaging 73
Web-Based Intelligence Solutions and Systems 73
Exercises and Planning Sessions 74
Common Products and Reports Used by Analysts 74
News Bulletins and Newsletters 74
Assessments 76
Competitor Profiles 76
Battlecards 76
Strategic Impact Worksheets 77
Intelligence Briefings 77
Situation Analysis 78
Special Intelligence Summaries 78
Creating the Report 78
Communication Difficulties Faced by Analysts 79
Effective Listening and Answering the Questions of Decision Makers 86
Conduct Communication Follow-Up and Gather Feedback 87
Pragmatic Considerations 87
Summary 89
References 90
Chapter 5 Applying the FAROUT Method 92
Applying the Techniques 94
An Evaluation Scheme for Assessing the Adequacy of Tools and Techniques: FAROUT 95
Using the FAROUT Rating System 98
References 101
SECTION II: NEW AND CLASSIC METHODS OF BUSINESS AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
Chapter 6 A Better SWOT Analysis 105
Background 105
Strategic Rationale and Implications 107
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 110
Strengths and Advantages 111
Weaknesses and Limitations 112
Process for Applying the SWOT Technique 113
Worksheet 119
FAROUT Summary 120
Related Tools and Techniques 122
References 122
Chapter 7 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 123
Background 123
Strategic Rationale and Implications 124
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 125
Strengths and Advantages 126
Weaknesses and Limitations 127
Process for Applying the Technique 128
Step 1: Identify the Possible Hypotheses to Be Considered 128
Step 2: List the Significant Evidence in Support of and Against Each Hypothesis 128
Step 3: Prepare a Matrix with Hypotheses Across the Top and Evidence Down the Side 129
Step 4: Refine the Matrix 130
Step 5: Draw Tentative Conclusions About the Relative Likelihood of Each Hypothesis by Trying to Disprove It 131
Step 6: Analyze How Sensitive Your Conclusion Is to a Few Critical Pieces of Evidence 132
Step 7: Report Conclusions 132
Step 8: Identify Milestones for Future Observation That May Indicate Events Are Taking a Different Course Than Expected 133
Summary 133
Worksheet 133
FAROUT Summary 134
Related Tools and Techniques 136
References 136
Chapter 8 Benchmarking Analysis 137
Background 137
Strategic Rationale and Implications 138
Taxonomy of Benchmarking 139
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 143
Strengths and Advantages 144
Weaknesses and Limitations 145
Process for Applying the Technique 147
Step 1: Identify the Processes That Need to Be Benchmarked 147
Step 2: Identify Performance Measures 148
Step 3: Evaluate Your Own Firm's Capabilities 150
Step 4: Identify Firms to Be Benchmarked 150
Step 5: Conduct Research of Selected Firms 151
Step 6: Analyze the Collected Data and Develop an Action Plan 152
Worksheet 155
FAROUT Summary 156
Related Tools and Techniques 157
References 157
Chapter 9 Business Model Analysis 159
Background 160
Strategic Rationale and Implications 161
The Business Model 162
Classification of Business Models 164
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 167
Strengths and Advantages 167
Weaknesses and Limitations 168
Process for Applying the Technique 168
Step 1: Articulate the Value Proposition 168
Step 2: Specify the Target Segment 170
Step 3: Determine Competitors 170
Step 4: Evaluate the Value Chain and the Cost Model 171
Step 5: Evaluate the Value Network 173
Step 6: Determine the Revenue Model for the Firm 174
Step 7: Determine the Critical Success Factors for the Industry 175
Step 8: Complete an Analysis Grid Detailing Each Element of the Business Model 175
Worksheet 179
FAROUT Summary 179
Related Tools and Techniques 181
References 181
Chapter 10 Competitive Positioning Analysis 183
Background 183
Strategic Rationale and Implications 184
Develop and Build on the Firm's Position 185
Maintain and Hold the Firm's Strong Market Position 186
Defend a Dominant Position 186
Withdraw from a Market 186
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 187
Strengths and Advantages 187
Weaknesses and Limitations 188
Process for Applying the Technique 189
Step 1: Identify Current Strategy and Market/Product/Project Parameters 190
Step 2: Conduct Analysis 192
Step 3: Review Results and Formulate Positioning Strategy 193
Summary 195
Worksheet 197
FAROUT Summary 198
Related Tools and Techniques 200
References 200
Chapter 11 Competitor Cash Flow Analysis 202
Background 202
Strategic Rationale and Implications 204
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 206
Strengths and Advantages 207
Weaknesses and Limitations 208
Processes for Applying the Technique 209
Future Cash Flow Analysis 210
Tip Sheet on Cash Flow Analysis 211
Worksheet 218
FAROUT Summary 219
Related Tools and Techniques 220
References 221
Chapter 12 Critical Success Factors Analysis 222
Background 222
Strategic Rationale and Implications 224
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 229
Strengths and Advantages 229
Weaknesses and Limitations 230
Process for Applying the Technique 231
Leidecker and Bruno's Identification Techniques 232
Determining Critical Success Factor Importance 236
Worksheet 238
FAROUT Summary 239
Related Tools and Techniques 240
References 241
Chapter 13 Driving Forces Analysis 243
Background 243
Strategic Rationale and Implications 244
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 244
Strengths and Advantages 245
Weaknesses and Limitations 246
Process for Applying the Technique 246
Step 1: Identifying an Industry's DFs 247
Step 2: Assessing the Impact of the DFs 250
Worksheet 258
FAROUT Summary 259
Related Tools and Techniques 260
References 261
Chapter 14 Event and Timeline Analysis 263
Background 263
Strategic Rationale and Implications 264
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 265
Strengths and Advantages 265
Weaknesses and Limitations 266
Process for Applying the Technique 267
Plot the Target Firm's History of Key Events on a Line 267
Develop a Chronological Table of Events 269
Develop an Events Matrix 270
Event and Causal Factors Analysis 270
Worksheet 278
FAROUT Summary 278
Related Tools and Techniques 280
References 280
Chapter 15 Historiographical Analysis 282
Background 282
Strategic Rationale and Implications 283
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 285
Strengths and Advantages 286
Weaknesses and Limitations 287
Process for Applying the Technique 288
Step 1: Develop a General Proposition About the Analytical Target 288
Step 2: Collect Primary Information 289
Step 3: Collect and Relate Secondary Information 289
Step 4: Cross-Reference and Select the Best Sources for the Third Draft 290
Step 5: Analysis, Validation, and Reporting 290
Worksheet 292
FAROUT Summary 293
Related Tools and Techniques 294
References 295
Chapter 16 Indications and Warning Analysis 296
Background 296
Strategic Rationale and Implications 298
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 299
Strengths and Advantages 299
Weaknesses and Limitations 300
Process for Applying the Technique 302
Step 1: Establish a Set of Indicators 302
Step 2: Establish Meaning Behind Indicators 304
Step 3: Validate and Rank Indicators Against Threshold Levels to Determine When Warnings Need to Be Issued 306
Step 4: Determine and Recommend Appropriate Firm Responses to the Warning 307
Worksheet 308
FAROUT Summary 309
Related Tools and Techniques 311
References 311
Chapter 17 Industry Fusion Analysis 313
Background 313
General Environment 314
Operating Environment/Industry Analysis 317
Internal Environment 318
Strategic Rationale and Implications 318
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 320
Strengths and Advantages 321
Weaknesses and Limitations 322
Process for Applying the Technique 323
Worksheet 330
FAROUT Summary 331
Related Tools and Techniques 332
References 332
Chapter 18 Interpretation of Statistical Analysis 335
Background 335
Strategic Rationale and Implications 336
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 337
Strengths and Advantages 338
Weaknesses and Limitations 338
Process for Applying the Technique 339
Percentage Changes 339
Percentiles and Quartiles 341
Normal Distribution and Bell Curve 341
Summarizing Data with One Value-Central Tendency 342
Standard Deviation 344
Comparing Data 345
Regression Analysis 346
Correlation 350
P-Values 351
Worksheet 351
FAROUT Summary 352
Related Tools and Techniques 353
References 354
Chapter 19 Linchpin Analysis 355
Background 355
Strategic Rationale and Implications 356
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 359
Strengths and Advantages 360
Weaknesses and Limitations 360
Process for Applying the Technique 361
Linchpin Assumption Sensitivity Analysis 362
Process for Using Linchpin Analysis in Assessing Risk 363
Worksheet 364
FAROUT Summary 365
Related Tools and Techniques 366
References 367
Chapter 20 McKinsey 7S Analysis 368
Background 368
Strategic Rationale and Implications 371
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 372
Strengths and Advantages 373
Weaknesses and Limitations 374
Process for Applying the Technique 375
Worksheet 381
FAROUT Summary 381
Related Tools and Techniques 383
References 383
Chapter 21 Product Line Analysis 385
Background 385
Strategic Rationale and Implications 386
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 386
Strengths and Advantages 387
Weaknesses and Limitations 388
Process for Applying the Technique 389
Step 1: Initial Product Audit 389
Step 2: Assess the Product Relative to Its Position in the Product Life Cycle 390
Worksheet 401
FAROUT Summary 403
Related Tools and Techniques 404
References 405
Chapter 22 Scenario Analysis 407
Background 407
Strategic Rationale and Implications 408
Methods for Generating Scenarios 408
Quantitative Method: Computer-Generated Econometric Model 409
Qualitative Methods 409
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 411
Strengths and Advantages 412
Weaknesses and Limitations 413
Processes for Applying the Technique 413
Worksheet 421
FAROUT Summary 422
Related Tools and Techniques 424
References 424
Chapter 23 SERVO Analysis 425
Background 425
Strategy 426
Environment 427
Resources 428
Values 430
Organization 431
Strategic Rationale and Implications 432
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 433
Strengths and Advantages 434
Weaknesses and Limitations 434
Process for Applying the Technique 435
Step 1: Evaluate the Current Performance of the Firm 435
Step 2: Assess the Current Strategy and Discern Whether Change Is Necessary 436
Step 3: Develop and Evaluate Strategic Options and Programs 439
Worksheet 442
FAROUT Summary 443
Related Tools and Techniques 444
References 445
Chapter 24 Shadowing 447
Background 447
Strategic Rationale and Implications 450
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 451
Strengths and Advantages 451
Weaknesses and Limitations 452
Process for Applying the Technique 454
Team Composition 454
Team Structure 455
Performance Goals 455
Shadowing 456
Developing a Shadow Market Plan 458
Mini Case Studies 461
Case 1: Deregulating Utility 461
Case 2: Packaged-Food Multinational 461
Case 3: Ready-to-Eat Foods 461
Case 4: Pharmaceutical Firm 462
Worksheet 462
FAROUT Summary 463
Related Tools and Techniques 464
References 465
Chapter 25 Strategic Relationship Analysis 466
Background 466
Strategic Rationale and Implications 469
Purposes Served by SRs 469
Two Key Strategic Relationship Processes 472
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 473
Strengths and Advantages 474
Weaknesses and Limitations 475
Process for Applying the Technique 475
Studying Your Own Firm's Relationship Formation Readiness 475
Studying a Rival's Relationships 478
Worksheet 485
FAROUT Summary 486
Related Tools and Techniques 487
References 488
Chapter 26 Supply Chain Management (SCM) Analysis 492
Background 493
Strategic Rationale and Implications 494
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 496
Strengths and Advantages 497
Weaknesses and Limitations 498
Process for Applying the Technique 499
Rules and Tools 501
Worksheet 507
FAROUT Summary 508
Related Tools and Techniques 510
References 510
Chapter 27 Technology Forecasting 513
Background 513
Strategic Rationale and Implications 515
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 518
Strengths and Advantages 518
Weaknesses and Limitations 519
Process for Applying the Technique 521
1. Expert Opinion 522
2. Trend Extrapolation 523
3. Growth Curves 525
4. Historical Analogy 526
5. Scenarios 526
6. Modelling, Simulations, and Gaming 526
7. Morphological Analysis 527
8. Relevance Trees 527
9. Monitoring 528
10. Creativity Stimulators 529
Using the Information 531
Worksheet 535
FAROUT Summary 535
Related Tools and Techniques 537
References 537
Chapter 28 War Gaming 539
Background 539
Strategic Rationale and Implications 540
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 541
Strengths and Advantages 542
Weaknesses and Limitations 543
Process for Applying the Technique 544
Step 1: Is a War Game the Way to Go? 545
Step 2: Getting a Business War Game Off the Ground 546
Step 3: Who Should Play? 548
Step 4: Preparing for Your War Game 548
Step 5: Playing the Game 549
Step 6: After the Game 550
Worksheet 552
FAROUT Summary 553
Related Tools and Techniques 554
References 555
Chapter 29 Win/Loss Analysis 556
Background 556
Strategic Rationale and Implications 557
Key Intelligence Topics and Questions 559
Strengths and Advantages 560
Weaknesses and Limitations 561
Process for Applying the Technique 562
Step 1: Determine the Target Segments and Identify Prospects 562
Step 2: Understand Internal Cultural Issues 563
Step 3: Develop the Questionnaire 563
Step 4: Prepare for the Interviews 564
Step 5: Conduct Interviews 564
Step 6: Analyze and Interpret 565
Step 7: Disseminate 565
Worksheet 568
FAROUT Summary 570
Related Tools and Techniques 571
References 571
Index 573
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