Handbook of Exchange Rates

Preface xxiii Contributors xxvii part one Overview 1 Foreign Exchange Market Structure, Players, and Evolution 3 1.1 Introduction, 3 1.2 Geography and Composition of Currency Trading, 4 1.2.1 Which Currencies are Traded? 6 1.2.2 What Instruments are Traded? 9 1.2.3 How is Trading Regulated? 9 1.3 Players and Information in FX Markets, 11 1.3.1 Who Needs Liquidity? 12 1.3.2 Who Provides Liquidity? 15 1.3.3 Asymmetric Information and Exchange Rate Determination, 19 1.4 Electronic Trading Revolution in FX Markets, 21 1.4.1 The Telephone Era, 22 1.4.2 The Rise of the Computer, 22 1.4.3 Recent Developments in Electronic Trading, 30 1.5 Survey of Multibank FX Platforms, 35 1.6 Summary, 38 Glossary, 39 Acknowledgments, 41 References, 42 2 Macro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 45 2.1 Introduction, 45 2.2 Models of the Nominal Exchange Rate, 46 2.2.1 The Monetary Model, 46 2.2.2 Portfolio Balance Models, 49 2.2.3 Empirical Evidence, 51 2.3 Real Models of the Real Exchange Rate, 54 2.3.1 Purchasing Power Parity, 55 2.3.2 Balassa--Samuelson and Productivity-Based Models, 56 2.3.3 Two-Good Models, 59 2.4 New Directions in Exchange-Rate Modeling, 60 2.4.1 Taking Reaction Functions Seriously, 60 2.4.2 The Impact of Financial Globalization, 63 2.4.3 The Risk Premium and Order Flow, 64 2.5 Conclusions, 65 Acknowledgments, 65 References, 66 3 Micro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 73 3.1 Introduction, 73 3.2 Perspectives on Spot-Rate Dynamics, 74 3.2.1 Decomposition of Depreciation Rates, 74 3.2.2 Macro- and Microperspectives, 77 3.3 Currency Trading Models and their Implications, 80 3.3.1 The Portfolio Shifts Model, 81 3.3.2 Empirical Implications, 88 3.4 Exchange Rates, Order Flows, and the Macro Economy, 95 3.4.1 A Micro-Based Macro model, 96 3.4.2 Empirical Implications, 100 3.5 Conclusion, 105 Appendix, 105 3.6 Acknowledgment, 108 References, 108 4 The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework 111 4.1 Introduction, 111 4.1.1 Mainstream Exchange Rate Models, 111 4.1.2 Away from the Mainstream, 113 4.2 Exchange Rate Puzzles, 114 4.2.1 Disconnect Puzzle and Excess Volatility Puzzle, 114 4.2.2 Unit Root Property, 115 4.2.3 Volatility Clustering, 118 4.2.4 Fat-Tailed Distributed Exchange Rate Returns, 119 4.3 A Prototype Behavioral Model of the Foreign Exchange Market, 122 4.4 Conclusion, 127 References, 129 5 The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes and Some Future Perspectives 133 5.1 Introduction, 133 5.2 A Brief History of Currency Regimes, 135 5.3 Performance of the Laisser-Faire Exchange Rate System, 1973--2010, 138 5.3.1 Market Discipline, 139 5.3.2 Economic Policy Coordination, 140 5.3.3 Integration of Emerging Market Countries into the Global Economy, 140 5.4 Trends in Currency Use, 141 5.4.1 Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009, 143 5.5 Prospects for the Future, 144 5.5.1 The Current System, 144 5.5.2 Toward a more Managed International Monetary System? 146 5.5.3 How and When Will Reform Occur? 150 5.5.4 A Global Nominal Anchor? 151 5.6 Concluding Comments, 153 Appendix A: A Formal Test of Hollowing Out, 154 References, 156 part two Exchange Rate Models and Methods 6 Purchasing Power Parity in Economic History 161 6.1 Introduction, 161 6.2 Categorization of Purchasing-Power-Parity Theories, 162 6.3 Historical Application of PPP: Premodern Periods, 163 6.3.1 Ancient Period, 163 6.3.2 Medieval Period, 164 6.3.3 Sixteenth-Century Spain, 165 6.4 Techniques of Testing PPP Theory in Economic-History Literature, 165 6.4.1 Comparative-Static Computation, 165 6.4.2 Regression Analysis, 165 6.4.3 Testing for Causality, 165 6.4.4 Nonstationarity and Spurious Regression, 166 6.4.5 Testing for Stationarity, 167 6.4.6 Cointegration Analysis, 167 6.5 Price Variable in PPP Computations, 168 6.6 Modern Period: Testing of PPP, 169 6.6.1 Early North America, 169 6.6.2 Bullionist Periods, 170 6.6.3 Floating Rates--Second-Half of Nineteenth Century, 171 6.6.4 Classic Metallic Standards, 172 6.6.5 World War I, 172 6.6.6 Floating Rates--1920s, 173 6.6.7 1930s, 175 6.6.8 Interwar Period, 175 6.6.9 Spain--Long Term, 176 6.6.10 Guatemala--Long Term, 176 6.7 Analysis of U.S. Return to Gold Standard in 1879, 177 6.8 Establishment and Assessment of a Fixed Exchange Rate in Interwar Period, 177 6.8.1 United Kingdom, 177 6.8.2 France, 179 6.9 Conclusions, 180 References, 181 7 Purchasing Power Parity in Tradable Goods 189 7.1 Introduction, 189 7.2 The LOP and Price Indices, 190 7.3 Empirical Evidence on the LOP, 194 7.3.1 Early Tests of the LOP, 194 7.3.2 The Border Effect, 194 7.3.3 Barriers to Arbitrage and Nonlinearities, 195 7.3.4 The Tradable Versus Nontradable Goods Dichotomy, 198 7.3.5 The Aggregation Bias and Micro Price Studies, 199 7.4 Purchasing Power Parity, 200 7.4.1 Transitory and Structural Disparities from Parity, 203 7.5 Aggregating from the LOP to PPP: What Can We Infer? 205 7.5.1 An Eyeball Analysis of PPP, 207 7.6 Conclusion and Implications, 213 Appendix: TAR Modeling, 214 Acknowledgments, 215 References, 215 8 Statistical and Economic Methods for Evaluating Exchange Rate Predictability 221 8.1 Introduction, 221 8.2 Models for Exchange Rate Predictability, 224 8.2.1 A Present Value Model for Exchange Rates, 224 8.2.2 Predictive Regressions, 226 8.3 Statistical Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 228 8.4 Economic Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 231 8.4.1 The Dynamic FX Strategy, 231 8.4.2 Mean-Variance Dynamic Asset Allocation, 231 8.4.3 Performance Measures, 232 8.4.4 Transaction Costs, 234 8.5 Combined Forecasts, 235 8.6 Empirical Results, 237 8.6.1 Data on Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals, 237 8.6.2 Predictive Regressions, 242 8.6.3 Statistical Evaluation, 244 8.6.4 Economic Evaluation, 249 8.7 Conclusion, 256 Appendix A: The Bootstrap Algorithm, 259 Acknowledgments, 260 References, 260 9 When Are Pooled Panel-Data Regression Forecasts of Exchange Rates More Accurate than the Time-Series Regression Forecasts? 265 9.1 Introduction, 265 9.2 Panel Data Exchange Rate Determination Studies, 267 9.3 Asymptotic Consequences of Pooling, 268 9.3.1 Predictive Regression Estimated on Full Sample, 268 9.3.2 Out-of-Sample Prediction, 271 9.4 Monte Carlo Study, 272 9.5 An Illustration with Data, 275 9.6 Conclusions, 278 References, 279 10 Carry Trades and Risk 283 10.1 Introduction, 283 10.2 The Carry Trade: Basic Facts, 285 10.2.1 What is a Carry Trade? 285 10.2.2 Measuring the Returns to the Carry Trade, 286 10.3 Pricing the Returns to the Carry Trade, 290 10.4 Empirical Findings, 293 10.4.1 Traditional Risk Factors, 293 10.4.2 Factors Derived from Currency Returns, 299 10.5 Time-Varying Risk and Rare Events, 308 10.6 Conclusion, 311 Acknowledgments, 311 References, 311 11 Currency Fair Value Models 313 11.1 Introduction, 313 11.2 Models/Taxonomy, 315 11.2.1 "Adjusted PPP": Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson and Penn Effects, 315 11.2.2 The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Family of Models, 316 11.2.3 The Underlying Balance (UB) Approach, 320 11.2.4 External Sustainability (ES) Approach, 324 11.2.5 The Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX), 325 11.2.6 The Indirect Fair Value (IFV), 325 11.3 Implementation Choices and Model Characteristics, 328 11.3.1 Horizon/Frequency, 329 11.3.2 Direct Econometric Estimation Versus "Methods of Calculation", 331 11.3.3 Treatment of External Imbalances , 332 11.3.4 Real Versus Nominal Exchange Rates, 333 11.3.5 Bilateral Versus Effective Exchange Rate, 333 11.3.6 Time Series Versus Cross Section or Panel, 336 11.3.7 Model Maintenance, 336 11.4 Conclusion, 337 Acknowledgments, 338 References, 339 12 Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market 343 12.1 Introduction, 343 12.2 The Practice of Technical Analysis, 345 12.2.1 The Philosophy of Technical Analysis, 345 12.2.2 Types of Technical Analysis, 346 12.3 Studies of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market, 350 12.3.1 Why Study Technical Analysis? 350 12.3.2 Survey Evidence on the Practice of Technical Analysis, 350 12.3.3 Computing Signals and Returns, 351 12.3.4 Early Studies: Skepticism before the Tide Turns, 353 12.3.5 Pattern Recognition, Intraday Data, and Other Exchange Rates, 353 12.4 Explaining The Success of Technical Analysis, 355 12.4.1 Data Snooping, Publication Bias, and Data Mining, 355 12.4.2 Temporal Variation in Trading Rule Returns, 357 12.4.3 Do Technical Trading Returns Compensate Investors for Bearing Risk? 359 12.4.4 Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Create Trading Rule Profits? 361 12.4.5 Do Cognitive Biases Create Trading Rule Profits? 363 12.4.6 Do Markets Adapt to Arbitrage Away Trading Rule Profits? 365 12.5 The Future of Research on Technical Analysis, 366 12.6 Conclusion, 367 Acknowledgments, 368 References, 368 13 Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information 375 13.1 Introduction, 375 13.2 Basic Monetary Model, 376 13.3 Information Heterogeneity, 379 13.4 Model Uncertainty, 381 13.5 Infrequent Decision Making, 385 13.6 Conclusion, 388 Acknowledgments, 388 References, 389 14 Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Discount Factor Framework 391 14.1 Introduction, 391 14.2 Exchange Rates and Stochastic Discount Factors, 392 14.2.1 Stochastic Discount Factors, 392 14.2.2 Real Exchange Rates and Currency Risk Premia, 395 14.3 Empirical Evidence, 398 14.3.1 From UIP Regressions to Currency Portfolios, 398 14.3.2 Annual Currency Excess Returns and Aggregate Risk, 399 14.3.3 Monthly Currency Excess Returns, 403 14.3.4 Implications for Stochastic Discount Factors, 403 14.3.5 Predictability of Currency Excess Returns, 405 14.4 Models, 407 14.4.1 Habits, 407 14.4.2 Long-Run Risk, 411 14.4.3 Disaster Risk, 414 14.5 Conclusion, 417 References, 417 15 Volatility and Correlation Timing in Active Currency Management 421 15.1 Introduction, 421 15.2 Dynamic Models for Volatility and Correlation, 424 15.2.1 The Set of Multivariate Models, 425 15.2.2 The Set of Univariate Models for Volatility Timing, 427 15.2.3 Pairwise Model Comparisons, 427 15.2.4 Estimation and Forecasting, 427 15.3 The Economic Value of Volatility and Correlation Timing, 428 15.3.1 The Dynamic Strategy, 428 15.3.2 Dynamic Asset Allocation with CRRA Utility, 428 15.3.3 Performance Measures, 429 15.3.4 Transaction Costs, 430 15.4 Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Asset Allocation, 430 15.5 Model Uncertainty, 431 15.5.1 The BMA Strategy, 432 15.5.2 The BMW Strategy, 432 15.6 Empirical Results, 432 15.6.1 Data and Descriptive Statistics, 432 15.6.2 Bayesian Estimation, 433 15.6.3 Evaluating Volatility and Correlation Timing, 434 15.7 Conclusion, 440 Appendix A: Univariate Models for Volatility Timing, 442 Appendix B: Parameter Uncertainty and the Predictive Density, 443 Acknowledgments, 444 References, 444 part three FX Markets and Products 16 Active Currency Management Part I: Is There a Premium for Currency Investing (Beta) 453 16.1 Introduction, 453 16.2 Beta in the Foreign Exchange Markets, 455 16.2.1 Understanding the FX Carry Trade, 455 16.2.2 FX Carry as a Broader Strategy, 456 16.2.3 FX Trend-Based Strategies, 458 16.2.4 Value-Based Strategies Within FX, 460 16.2.5 USD Directional Trade, 461 16.2.6 Correlation between these FX Strategies and Other Forms of Beta, 462 16.2.7 Weighted Portfolio of FX Strategies, 463 16.3 Multiple Forms of FX Beta, 465 16.4 Carry FX Indices from Banks, 465 16.5 Trend-Following FX Indices from Banks, 467 16.6 Conclusion, 468 References, 469 17 Active Currency Management Part II: Is There Skill or Alpha in Currency Investing? 471 17.1 Introduction, 471 17.2 Alternative Currency Management Mandates, 473 17.2.1 Features of a Currency Mandate, 473 17.2.2 Structural and Operational Choices, 476 17.2.3 The Alpha Continuum and Implications of Active Currency Mandates, 477 17.3 Benchmarks for Currency Fund Management, 477 17.3.1 A Basic Factor Model for Currency Returns, 479 17.4 Empirical Evidence with the Barclay Currency Traders Index and Individual Fund Managers, 481 17.4.1 Empirical Evidence with the Barclay Currency Traders Index, 481 17.4.2 Individual Currency Manager Returns, 485 17.4.3 Alternative Information Ratio, 493 17.5 Empirical Evidence: Fund Managers on the DB FX Select Platform, 496 17.5.1 Grouping Managers into a Fund of Funds, 496 17.6 Conclusions and Investment Implications, 498 References, 499 18 Currency Hedging for International Bond and Equity Investors 503 18.1 Introduction, 503 18.2 Overview of Empirical Hedging Studies, 504 18.3 Return and Volatility Impact of Currency Hedging, 506 18.3.1 Theoretical Background, 506 18.3.2 Methodology, 508 18.3.3 Summary of Findings on the Return and Volatility Impact of Currency Hedging, 525 18.4 Hedge Instruments--Currency Forwards versus Options, 526 18.4.1 Why Do Hedge Cash Flows Matter? 526 18.4.2 Historical Performance of Hedging with Options, 527 18.4.3 Summary of Findings on Hedging with Options Versus Forwards, 532 18.5 Managing Tracking Error in Forward Hedges, 533 18.5.1 How Often to Rebalance? 533 18.5.2 Trigger-Based Versus Regular Rebalancing, 539 18.5.3 Summary of Findings on Hedge Rebalancing, 539 18.6 Conclusions, 541 References, 543 19 FX Reserve Management 545 19.1 FX Reserve Management, 545 19.2 FX Reserve Uses, 545 19.3 FX Reserve Sources, 546 19.4 Objectives of Reserves Management, 547 19.5 Techniques of Reserve Management, 547 19.6 Historical Perspective, 548 19.7 What Assets Do Central Banks Hold? 549 19.8 Constraints, 550 19.9 External Managers, 551 19.10 Costs of Accumulation and Holding of Reserves, 551 19.11 Diversification, 552 19.12 Challenges to Diversification and Size of Reserves, 552 19.13 Changing Role of the Dollar as the International Reserve Currency, 554 19.14 Reserve Management if the Dollar is Replaced as the Reserve Currency, 557 19.15 Conclusion, 559 Acknowledgments, 559 References, 559 20 High Frequency Finance: Using Scaling Laws to Build Trading Models 563 20.1 Introduction, 563 20.2 The Intrinsic Time Framework, 565 20.3 Scaling Laws, 567 20.3.1 The New Scaling Laws, 568 20.3.2 The Coastline, 573 20.4 The Scale of Market Quakes, 574 20.5 Trading Models, 577 20.5.1 Overview, 577 20.5.2 Coastline Trader, 578 20.5.3 Monthly Statistics, 580 20.6 Conclusion, 582 Acknowledgments, 582 References, 582 21 Algorithmic Execution in Foreign Exchange 585 21.1 Introduction, 585 21.1.1 Drawing from the Equity Market, 586 21.1.2 What is Going to Work for Foreign Exchange? 587 21.2 Key Components of an Algorithmic Execution Framework, 589 21.2.1 Smart Order Routing (SOR), 589 21.2.2 Intelligence, 590 21.2.3 Speed, 591 21.3 Types of Algorithms, 592 21.3.1 Time Slicers, 592 21.3.2 Sweeper, 592 21.3.3 Iceberg, 592 21.3.4 Opportunistic, 592 21.3.5 Participators, 594 21.3.6 Internalization Strategies, 594 21.3.7 Dynamic Algorithms, 595 21.4 What Execution Strategies are Most Effective? 595 21.4.1 Measuring Performance, 596 21.5 Looking Forward, 596 Appendix A, 596 References, 597 22 Foreign Exchange Strategy Based Products 599 22.1 Introduction, 599 22.2 Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Market, 600 22.2.1 Disappointing Early Years, 600 22.2.2 Emergence of "Puzzles" in FX, 601 22.2.3 Growth of FX Market Turnover and Currency Managers, 602 22.3 Foreign Exchange Investable Indices and Strategy-Based Products, 606 22.3.1 Why Profit Opportunities Exist? 606 22.3.2 Beta and Alpha in Foreign Exchange, 607 22.3.3 Why is FX Attractive? 613 22.3.4 Why use Strategy-Based FX Products? 619 22.4 Conclusion, 620 References, 620 23 Foreign Exchange Futures, Forwards, and Swaps 623 23.1 Introduction, 623 23.2 Market Basics and Size, 625 23.2.1 FX Outright Forwards and Futures, 625 23.2.2 FX Swaps and Cross-Currency Swaps, 628 23.2.3 Market Size, 635 23.3 Dislocations of the FX and Cross-Currency Swap Markets under Financial Crises, 637 23.3.1 Japan Premium Case in the Late 1990s, 637 23.3.2 The Global Financial Crisis from 2007, 639 23.4 Conclusion, 643 Acknowledgments, 643 References, 643 24 FX Options and Volatility Derivatives: An Overview from the Buy-Side Perspective 647 24.1 Introduction, 647 24.2 Why Would One Bother with an Option? 648 24.2.1 History, 648 24.2.2 FX Options, 649 24.3 Market for FX Options, 655 24.3.1 Overview, 655 24.3.2 Players, 656 24.3.3 Setting the Price, 658 24.4 Volatility, 660 24.4.1 Overview of Models, 660 24.4.2 Some Stylized Facts and Implied Moments, 664 24.4.3 Is Volatility an Asset Class? 666 24.4.4 Anti-Black Swan Strategies, 674 24.4.5 Black Swan Strategies, 676 24.5 FX Options from the Buy-Side Perspective, 683 24.5.1 Strike versus Leverage, 683 24.5.2 Implied Distribution, 685 24.5.3 Long-Dated Options versus Short-Dated Option, 689 24.5.4 Black Swan Fund, 692 24.5.5 Currency Hedging of Illiquid Assets, 693 Acknowledgment, 695 References, 695 part four FX Markets and Policy 25 A Common Framework for Thinking about Currency Crises 699 25.1 Introduction, 699 25.2 The KFG Model, 701 25.3 Extensions, 706 25.3.1 Attack-Conditional Monetary Policy, 706 25.3.2 Devaluation, 707 25.3.3 Sterilization and Interest Rate Defense, 709 25.3.4 Lender of Last Resort and Currency Crises, 711 25.4 Empirical Work, 713 25.5 Conclusion, 714 References, 715 26 Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market 717 26.1 Introduction, 717 26.2 Official FX Interventions and Reserve Accumulation: Stylized Facts, Motives, and Effects, 721 26.3 Empirical Evidence on the Effectiveness of Official FX Interventions, 725 26.3.1 A Simple Conceptual Framework, 726 26.3.2 Time-Series Approach: Evidence on Effectiveness and Channels, 728 26.3.3 Event-Study Approach: Evidence on Longer-Term Effectiveness, 739 26.4 Conclusions, 746 26.5 Acknowledgements, 746 References, 747 27 Exchange Rate Misalignment--The Case of the Chinese Renminbi 751 27.1 Introduction, 751 27.2 Background, 752 27.3 Undervalued or Overvalued, 754 27.3.1 The FEER Misalignment Estimate, 754 27.3.2 The Penn Effect Regression, 757 27.3.3 Data Revision, 759 27.4 Concluding Remarks, 762 Acknowledgments, 763 References, 763 28 Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime 767 28.1 Five Advantages of Fixed Exchange Rates , 768 28.2 Econometric Evidence on the Bilateral Trade Effects of Currency Regimes, 770 28.2.1 Time-Series Dimension, 771 28.2.2 Omitted Variables, 772 28.2.3 Endogeneity of the Currency Decision, 773 28.2.4 Implausible Magnitude of the Estimate, 774 28.2.5 Country Size, 775 28.3 Five Advantages of Floating Exchange Rates, 775 28.4 How to Weigh Up the Advantages of Fixing Versus Floating, 777 28.5 Country Characteristics That Should Help Determine the Choice of Regime, 778 28.6 Alternative Nominal Anchors, 780 References, 781 Index 785