
Dam Failure Mechanisms and Risk Assessment
Description
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. The first book that introduces the causes, processes and consequences of dam failures
. Integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner
. Emphasizes integrating theory and practice to better demonstrate the application of risk assessment and decision methodologies to real cases
. Intends to formulate dam-breaching emergency management steps in a scientific structure
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Persons
Professor Limin Zhang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, China
Limin Zhang is currently Professor of Civil Engineering at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His research areas include embankment dams and slopes, geotechnical risk assessment and foundation engineering.
Dr. Ming Peng, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, China
Ming Peng is a Post-doctoral Research Associate at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His research areas include risk analysis methodologies, flood vulnerability analysis and decision theory.
Dr. Dongsheng Chang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, China
Dongsheng Chang is a Post-doctoral Research Associate at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Dr. Chang is an expert in internal erosion and overtopping erosion of dams. He invented a laboratory device to test the internal erodibility of soils under complex stress conditions.
Dr. Yao Xu, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research and Chinese National Committee on Large Dams, China
Yao Xu recently joined China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research and Chinese National Committee on Large Dams after working as a Post-doctoral Research Associate at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
Content
Foreword by Kaare Høeg xiii
Foreword by Jinsheng Jia xiv
Preface xvi
Acknowledgements xviii
About the Authors xix
PART I DAM AND DIKE FAILURE DATABASES 1
1 Dams and Their Components 3
1.1 Classification of Dams 3
1.2 Constructed Embankment Dams 4
1.3 Landslide Dams 7
1.4 Concrete Gravity Dams 7
1.5 Concrete Arch Dams 8
1.6 Dikes 10
2 Statistical Analysis of Failures of Constructed Embankment Dams 11
2.1 Database of Failures of Constructed Embankment Dams 11
2.2 Failure Modes and Processes 11
2.2.1 Overtopping 16
2.2.2 Internal Erosion 17
2.3 Common Causes of Embankment Dam Failures 19
2.4 Failure of Different Types of Embankment Dams 21
2.4.1 Analysis of Homogeneous and Composite Earthfill Dams 23
2.4.2 Analysis of Earthfill Dams with Corewalls 23
3 Statistical Analysis of Failures of Landslide Dams 25
3.1 Database of Failures of Landslide Dams 25
3.1.1 Locations of Landslide Dams 25
3.1.2 Formation Times of Landslide Dams 26
3.1.3 Triggers of Landslide Dams 26
3.1.4 Types of Landslide 26
3.1.5 Dam Heights and Lake Volumes 32
3.2 Stability, Longevity, and Failure Modes of Landslide Dams 33
3.2.1 Stability of Landslide Dams 33
3.2.2 Longevity of Landslide Dams 35
3.2.3 Failure Modes 36
3.3 Mitigation Measures for Landslide Dams 37
3.3.1 Stages of Landslide Dam Risk Mitigation 38
3.3.2 Engineering Mitigation Measures for Landslide Dams 39
3.3.3 Engineering Measures for the Landslide Dams Induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake 41
3.3.4 Mitigation Measures for the Tangjiashan Landslide Dam 51
4 Statistical Analysis of Failures of Concrete Dams 53
4.1 Database of Failures of Concrete Dams 53
4.2 Failure Modes and Processes 53
4.3 Common Causes of Concrete Dam Failures 55
5 Statistical Analysis of Failures of Dikes 57
5.1 Introduction 57
5.2 Database of Dike Breaching Cases 57
5.3 Evaluation of Dike Failure Mechanisms 59
5.3.1 Most Relevant Failure Mechanisms 59
5.3.2 Statistics of Observed Failure Mechanisms 62
PART II DAM FAILURE MECHANISMS AND BREACHING PROCESS MODELING 67
6 Internal Erosion in Dams and Their Foundations 69
6.1 Concepts of Internal Erosion 69
6.2 Mechanisms of Initiation of Internal Erosion 72
6.2.1 Concentrated Leak Erosion 72
6.2.2 Backward Erosion 73
6.2.3 Contact Erosion 73
6.2.4 Suffusion 74
6.3 Initiation of Concentrated Leak Erosion Through Cracks 74
6.3.1 Causes of Concentrated Leak 75
6.3.2 Need for Studying Soil Erodibility for Concentrated Leak Erosion 80
6.3.3 Laboratory Tests on Concentrated Leak Erosion 81
6.3.4 Factors Affecting Concentrated Leak Erosion 83
6.3.5 Soil Dispersivity 84
6.4 Initiation of Backward Erosion 87
6.4.1 Susceptibility of a Dam or Dike to Backward Erosion 87
6.4.2 Methods for Assessing Backward Erosion 89
6.4.3 Formation of a Pipe due to Backward Erosion 92
6.5 Initiation of Contact Erosion 93
6.5.1 Fundamental Aspects of Contact Erosion Process 94
6.5.2 Laboratory Investigation on Contact Erosion 96
6.5.3 Threshold of Contact Erosion 100
6.6 Initiation of Suffusion 102
6.6.1 Control Parameters for Likelihood of Suffusion 102
6.6.2 Laboratory Testing of Suffusion 103
6.6.3 Geometrical Criteria for Internal Stability of Soils 108
6.6.4 Critical Hydraulic Gradients for Suffusion 115
6.7 Filter Criteria 120
6.7.1 Functions of Filter 120
6.7.2 Filter Criteria 121
6.8 Continuation of Internal Erosion 124
6.9 Progression of Internal Erosion 125
6.10 Suggested Topics for Further Research 126
7 Mechanics of Overtopping Erosion of Dams 127
7.1 Mechanics of Surface Erosion 127
7.1.1 Incipient Motion of Sediment 128
7.1.2 Sediment Transport 133
7.2 Determination of Erodibility of Soils 144
7.2.1 Critical Erosive Shear Stress 144
7.2.2 Coefficient of Erodibility 145
7.2.3 Laboratory Tests 147
7.2.4 Field Tests 151
7.2.5 Classification of Soil Erodibility 155
7.3 Characteristics of Overtopping Erosion Failure of Dams 157
7.3.1 Homogeneous Embankment Dams with Cohesionless Materials 157
7.3.2 Homogeneous Embankment Dams with Cohesive Materials 158
7.3.3 Composite Embankment Dams 159
7.4 Suggested Topics for Further Research 159
8 Dam Breach Modeling 161
8.1 Methods for Dam Breach Modeling 161
8.2 Dam Breaching Data 163
8.2.1 Embankment Dam Breaching Data 163
8.2.2 Landslide Dam Breaching Data 165
8.2.3 Dike Breaching Data 165
8.3 Empirical Analysis Methods 166
8.3.1 Multivariable Regression 166
8.3.2 Empirical Breaching Parameters for Constructed Embankment Dams 169
8.3.3 Empirical Breaching Parameters for Landslide Dams 179
8.3.4 Empirical Breaching Parameters for Dikes 187
8.3.5 Comparison of Breaching Parameters for Landslide Dams and Constructed Embankment Dams 189
8.4 Numerical Simulation of Overtopping Erosion 192
8.4.1 Simplified Physically Based Methods 197
8.4.2 Detailed Physically Based Methods 206
8.4.3 Case Studies 211
8.5 Numerical Simulation of Internal Erosion 215
8.5.1 Continuum Methods 215
8.5.2 Particle Level Analysis 218
8.5.3 Case Studies 218
9 Analysis of Dam Breaching Flood Routing 222
9.1 River Hydraulics 222
9.1.1 One?-dimensional Models 223
9.1.2 Two?-dimensional Models 223
9.2 Numerical Models for Flood Routing Analysis 224
9.2.1 One?-dimensional Numerical Models 224
9.2.2 Two?-dimensional Numerical Models 227
9.2.3 Coupling of 1D/2D Numerical Models 229
9.3 Example - Tangjiashan Landslide Dam Failure 229
9.3.1 Geometric Information 229
9.3.2 Dam Breaching Simulation 232
9.3.3 Boundary and Initial Conditions 232
9.3.4 Flood Routing Analysis and Results 232
PART III DAM FAILURE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 241
10 Analysis of Probability of Failure of Dams 243
10.1 Introduction 243
10.2 Analysis Methods 243
10.2.1 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis 243
10.2.2 Event Tree 244
10.2.3 Fault Tree 246
10.2.4 First?-order Reliability Method/First?-order Second?-moment Method 247
10.2.5 Monte Carlo Simulation 250
10.2.6 Bayesian Networks 250
10.3 Examples of Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Failure 253
10.3.1 Probabilistic Analysis of Chinese Dam Distresses 253
10.3.2 Probabilistic Analysis of the Chenbihe Dam Distresses Using Bayesian Networks 264
11 Vulnerability to Dam Breaching Floods 273
11.1 Concepts of Vulnerability 273
11.2 Human Vulnerability to Dam Breaching Floods 273
11.2.1 Human Stability in Flood 274
11.2.2 Influence Factors 277
11.2.3 Methods for Evaluating Human Vulnerability Factor in a Flood 278
11.2.4 Database of Fatalities in Dam/Dike Breaching or Other Floods 283
11.3 Bayesian Network Analysis of Human Vulnerability to Floods 284
11.3.1 Bayesian Networks 284
11.3.2 Building the Bayesian Network for Human Vulnerability 285
11.3.3 Quantifying the Networks 291
11.3.4 Validation of the Model 297
11.4 Damage to Buildings and Infrastructures 300
11.4.1 Flood Action on Buildings 300
11.4.2 Models for Building Damage Evaluation 303
11.4.3 Relationship between Building Damage and Loss of Life 305
11.5 Suggested Topics for Further Research 306
12 Dam Failure Risk Assessment 307
12.1 Risk and Risk Assessment 307
12.1.1 Definition of Risk 307
12.1.2 Risk Management 308
12.2 Dam Failure Risk Analysis 311
12.2.1 Scope Definition 311
12.2.2 Hazards Identification 311
12.2.3 Identification of Failure Modes 312
12.2.4 Estimation of Failure Probability 312
12.2.5 Evaluation of Elements at Risk 313
12.2.6 Vulnerability Evaluation 314
12.2.7 Risk Estimation 314
12.3 Risk Assessment 315
12.3.1 Risk Tolerance Criteria 315
12.3.2 ALARP Considerations 319
12.4 Suggested Topics for Further Research 321
13 Dam Failure Contingency Risk Management 322
13.1 Process of Contingency Risk Management 322
13.1.1 Observation and Prediction 323
13.1.2 Decision?-making 323
13.1.3 Warning 324
13.1.4 Response 325
13.1.5 Evacuation 326
13.2 Decision?-making Under Uncertainty 328
13.2.1 Decision Tree 329
13.2.2 Multi?-phase Decision 330
13.2.3 Influence Diagrams 333
13.3 Dynamic Decision?-Making 334
13.3.1 Dam Failure Emergency Management 336
13.3.2 Dynamic Decision?-making Framework 339
13.3.3 Time Series Models for Estimating Dam Failure Probability 342
13.3.4 Evaluation of the Consequences of Dam Failures 348
13.3.5 Features of DYDEM 350
13.4 Suggested Topics for Further Research 351
14 Case Study: Risk?-based Decision?-making for the Tangjiashan Landslide Dam Failure 353
14.1 Timeline for Decision?-making for the Tangjiashan Landslide Dam Failure 353
14.2 Prediction of Dam Break Probability with Time Series Analysis 355
14.2.1 Forecasting Inflow Rates 355
14.2.2 Forecasting Lake Volume 358
14.2.3 Prediction of Dam Failure Probability 359
14.3 Simulation of Dam Breaching and Flood Routing 361
14.3.1 Simulation of Dam Breaching and Flood Routing in Stage 1 362
14.3.2 Simulation of Dam Breaching and Flood Routing in Stage 2 363
14.3.3 Simulation of Dam Breaching and Flood Routing in Stage 3 365
14.4 Evaluation of Flood Consequences 365
14.4.1 Methodology 366
14.4.2 Calculated Dam Break Flood Consequences 367
14.5 Dynamic Decision?-making 370
14.5.1 Methodology 370
14.5.2 Dynamic Decision?-making in Three Stages 371
14.6 Discussions 374
14.6.1 Influence of the Value of Human Life 374
14.6.2 Influence of Failure Mode 374
14.6.3 Sensitivity of the Minimum Expected Total Consequence 375
PART IV APPENDIXES: DAM FAILURE DATABASES 377
Appendix A: Database of 1443 Cases of Failures of Constructed Dams 379
Appendix B: Database of 1044 Cases of Failures of Landslide Dams 419
References 452
Index 474
1
Dams and Their Components
1.1 Classification of Dams
A dam is a barrier that impounds water. Dams have been an essential infrastructure in society that contributes to socioeconomic development and prosperity. They are built for a number of purposes, including flood control, irrigation, hydropower, water supply, and recreation. Dams can be classified in many ways, depending on their size, materials, structural types, construction methods, etc. According to the definition of the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD, 1998a), a reference dam height for distinguishing large dams from small dams is 15 m. Based on the materials used, dams can be classified as earthfill or rockfill dams, concrete dams, masonry dams, cemented sand and gravel dams, and others. Dams of earthfill or rockfill materials are generally called embankment dams. Based on the structural types adopted, dams can be divided into gravity dams, arch dams, buttress dams, and others. Very often dams are constructed with a combination of two or more structural forms or materials. Of the various types of dam, embankment dams are the most common.
ICOLD (1998) has published a world register of dams, which gives some facts regarding the numbers of different types of dam throughout the world. There are 25,410 dams over 15 m high, of which 12,000 were built for irrigation, 6500 for hydropower and 5500 for water supply, although many of them serve more than one purpose. Embankment dams of earthfill predominate over the others, comprising about 64% of all reported dams, while those of rockfill comprise 8%. Masonry or concrete gravity dams represent 19%, arch dams 4%, and buttress dams 1.4%. Dams lower than 30 m form 62% of the reported dams, while those lower than 60 m comprise 90% and those higher than 100 m just over 2% of the total number of dams.
Topography and geology are the two primary factors in weighing the merits of dam types. These interrelated characteristics of the dam site influence the loading distribution on the foundation and the seepage patterns through the reservoir margins. Embankment dams can be built on a variety of foundations, ranging from weak deposits to strong rocks, which is one of the most important reasons for their wide use in the world. A dam project usually comprises several components, including a water-retaining structure (e.g. the dam), a water-releasing structure (e.g. the spillway), a water-conveying structure (e.g. conduits), and others (e.g. power plants). In addition to the main structure of the dam, there are appurtenant structures such as the spillway, conduit, and power plant around a dam that are necessary for the operation of the whole dam system. Failures of, or accidents involving dams may be attributed to defects in either the dams themselves or their appurtenant structures.
Landslide dams are natural dams caused by rapid deposition of landslides, debris flows, or rockfall materials. The formation of most landslide dams is trigged by rainfall or earthquakes. Earthquake is the most important cause. For instance, the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 triggered 257 sizable landslide dams. Landslide dams and constructed embankment dams are similar in materials but different in geometry, soil components, and soil parameters. The differences largely influence the failure modes and breaching mechanisms of these two types of dam.
Dikes are a special type of dam. Although the height of a dike is typically small compared with that of a dam, a dike often protects a significant worth of property. Hence the failure statistics and mechanisms of dikes are also introduced in this book.
Here in Chapter 1, the structures of constructed embankment dams, natural landslide dams, concrete gravity dams, concrete arch dams, and dikes are introduced briefly.
1.2 Constructed Embankment Dams
Commonly constructed embankment dams can be divided into homogeneous dams, earth and rockfill dams with cores, and concrete-faced rockfill dams. A homogeneous dam (Figure 1.1) consists mainly of one single type of material. Such a dam is often constructed for soil and water conservation purposes, and many dams can be constructed along a gully in which soil erosion is serious. A conduit or other type of water passage facility may be installed inside a homogeneous dam. The interface between the conduit and the surrounding soils may easily become a channel of concentrated leak erosion.
Figure 1.1 A homogeneous dam with a conduit
An embankment dam can be constructed with earthfill or rockfill. Any dam which relies on fragmented rock materials as a major structural element is called a rockfill dam (Singh and Varshney, 1995). High quality rockfill is ideal for high-rise dams because it provides high shear strength and good drainage. A rockfill dam often has a vertical earth core or inclined earth core for seepage control. When a vertical core is adopted, the dam is zoned, with rockfill zones on both sides, a low-permeability zone (i.e. the earth core) in the middle, and transition and filter zones in between the core and the rockfill zones (Figure 1.2). The filters protect the earth core from internal erosion. They must be much more permeable than the core material and not be clogged by particles migrated from the core. The function of the transition zones is to coordinate the deformations of the core and the rockfill to minimize the stress arch effect and differential settlements.
Figure 1.2 A section of the 314 m high Shuangjiangkou rockfill dam
Figure 1.2 shows a typical section of the Shuangjiangkou dam with a vertical core. Located on the upper reach of the Dadu River in Sichuan, China, the dam is 314 high, one of the highest dams in the world. The overburden at the dam site is relatively shallow (48-57 m) and was excavated so that the vertical core could be constructed on the bedrock.
When the overburden is thick and pervious, cut-off walls may be required to minimize the seepage through the foundation and seepage-related problems in the foundation and the abutments. The cut-off walls for the 186 m high Pubugou rockfill dam are shown in Figure 1.3 as an example. This dam is also situated on the Dadu River in Sichuan, China. The maximum overburden thickness is 78 m. The overburden alluvium materials are gap-graded, and highly heterogeneous spatially. Hence two concrete cut-off walls were constructed through the overburden. The connection between the core and the walls was carefully designed to avoid stress concentrations and to alleviate the unfavorable influence of the large differential settlement between the walls and the surrounding soil. A highly plastic clay zone was constructed; one cut-off wall was embedded in the plastic clay and the other wall was connected to a drainage gallery, which was in turn embedded in the plastic clay.
Figure 1.3 A section of the Pubugou rockfill dam with a vertical earth core
A sloping upstream earth core may be adopted (Figure 1.4) when weather conditions do not allow the construction of a central vertical core all year round. The sloping core and the filters can be placed after the construction of the downstream rockfill. In this way, during staged construction, the rockfill can be placed all year round while the sloping core is placed during the dry season when mixing of the clayey core materials is practical. Figure 1.4 shows a section of the 160 m high Xiaolangdi dam with a sloping core. The bottom width of the core is 102 m and the core is extended to the upstream cofferdam through an impervious blanket. The overburden exceeds 70 m and two concrete cut-off walls were constructed, one beneath the sloping core and the other beneath the upstream cofferdam.
Figure 1.4 A section of the Xiaolangdi dam with an inclined earth core
The seepage through a rockfill dam can also be controlled by placing an impervious reinforced concrete plate at the upstream face of the dam. Such a dam is termed as a concrete-faced rockfill dam (CFRD). Figure 1.5 shows a section of the 233 m high Shuibuya CFRD located on the Qingjiang River in Hubei, China. A CRFD consists of the rockfill, the face plate, and transition and filter zones. The rockfill provides free drainage and high shear strength so that the profile of the dam can be smaller than that of a cored dam. The reinforced concrete face plate is cast with longitudinal and transverse joints and waterstops to allow for differential movements of the plate. The transition zone serves as a cushion to support the face plate. When the joints leak or the plate cracks, the transition and filter zones also limit the leakage, and the filter between the transition zone and the rockfill prevents internal erosion at the interface. CFRDs have been the most common type of high rise rockfill dams over the past decade. Since 1985, more than 80 CFRDs higher than 100 m have been constructed or are under construction in China (Jia et al., 2014). However, separation of the face plate from the cushion and extruding rupture of the face plate have occurred in several CFRDs.
Figure 1.5 A section of Shuibuya concrete-faced rockfill dam
1.3 Landslide Dams
A landslide dam is part of a natural landslide deposit that blocks a river and causes damming of the river. Once the river is...
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