
Future-Oriented Technology Assessment
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Comprehensive resource explaining how to evaluate technologies for different purposes in any industry using four different practical approaches
Future-Oriented Technology Assessment offers a comprehensive view of technology assessment structured into three different practical approaches: Technology Evaluation, Technology Roadmapping, and Technology Intelligence.
The first four chapters include studies which utilize technology gap analysis, multiple criteria decision analysis, expert assessment quantification or neural networks to evaluate or forecast technology alternatives. The next five chapters apply bibliometric analysis, patent analysis, and network analysis to identify technology trends and the leaders in the field. The final four chapters use technology roadmapping, which charts a comprehensive plan for implementing technology.
Additional topics covered in Future-Oriented Technology Assessment include:
- Smart grid technology as an alternative to fossil fuel consumption
- Heat pump water heaters that reduce the cost of energy and improve energy efficiency, with particular focus on research from the US and China
- Nanotechnology in construction in Saudi Arabia to improve heat insulation, energy efficiency, and tensile strength in green building designs
With comprehensive, practical insight into evaluating emerging technologies across different industries, Future-Oriented Technology Assessment is an essential read for researchers in technology and professionals in engineering and technology management, along with professionals and graduate students in related disciplines and programs of study.
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Persons
Haydar Yalçin, PhD, is an Associate Professor on Information Management and Technology at Ege University in Izmir, Turkey. He is also an affiliated faculty member at Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity & Cyber Defense Policy Center which is a National Academic Center of Excellence for Cybersecurity at Portland State University.
Tugrul U. Daim, PhD, is a Professor of Engineering and Technology Management, Fulbright Scholar, and the Director of Research at Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity & Cyber Defense Policy Center which is a National Academic Center of Excellence for Cybersecurity at Portland State University.
Content
A Note from the Series Editor xvii
About the Editors xxi
List of Contributors xxiii
Preface xxvii
1 Technology Assessment: Smart City Development Initiatives and Issues 1
Nagendra K. Sharma, Vimal Kumar, Pratima Verma, Tugrul U. Daim, Haydar Yalçin, and Kuei-Kuei Lai
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Evolution of the Smart City 4
1.3 Need for Smart Cities 5
1.4 Conclusion 10
1.5 Implication and Future Research 11
References 12
2 Technology Assessment: Process Optimization Services in the Cement Industry 15
Felipe C. Gelbecke, Tugrul U. Daim, Hermann Lodding, and Sine B. Skaarup
2.1 Introduction 15
2.2 Research Design 18
2.3 Results of the Survey 30
2.4 Discussion 41
2.5 Conclusions 46
2.A Interview Guide 47
References 48
3 Technology Assessment: Energy Storage Technologies 51
Aynur Yarga, Tugrul U. Daim, Saeed Alzahrani, and Serhat Burmaoglu
3.1 Introduction 51
3.2 Literature Review 52
3.3 Methodology 55
3.4 Model Development 59
3.5 Results Analysis and Discussion 67
3.6 Conclusion 79
Acknowledgments 82
References 82
4 Technology Forecasting: A Secure Solar Power Generation Forecasting Framework for Recurrent Neural Networks 87
Murat Kuzlu, Salih Sarp, Ferhat O. Catak, Umit Cali, and Yanxiao Zhao
4.1 Introduction 87
4.2 Proposed Secure Solar Power Generation Forecasting Framework 89
4.3 Deep Learning Techniques 91
4.4 Adversarial Attack and Mitigation Methods 97
4.5 Dataset Description, Feature Selection, and Performance Metrics 100
4.6 Experiments 103
4.7 Results and Discussion 109
4.8 Summary 110
References 110
5 Technology Intelligence: Transformative Trends and Technological Synergies for the Smart Grid 113
Haydar Yalçin
5.1 Introduction 113
5.2 Cluster Analysis 114
5.3 Authors Productivity 116
5.4 Co-word Analysis 117
5.5 Discussion 124
References 127
6 Technology Intelligence: Cryptocurrencies and Emerging Technologies 129
Ahmet Ergurum, Mursel Dogrul, Haydar Yalçin, and Tugrul U. Daim
6.1 Introduction 129
6.2 Data and Method 132
6.3 Discussion 146
References 146
7 Technology Intelligence: Geothermal Energy 151
Tugrul U. Daim, Mehdi Zamani, Ali B. Naeini, Fayez Alsoubaie, Hao Zhang, and Haydar Yalçin
7.1 Introduction 151
7.2 Impacts of Geothermal Energy 153
7.3 Methodology 156
7.4 Results of Data Analysis 168
7.5 Discussion 206
7.6 Conclusions 207
7.7 Limitations and Future Research 207
7.A Python Code of Mann-Kendall Test 208
7.B Python Code of Life Cycle S Curve 210
References 213
8 Technology Intelligence: Heat Pump Water Heaters 221
Fayez Alsoubaie, Aynur Kirbac, and Tugrul U. Daim
8.1 Introduction 221
8.2 Literature Review 222
8.3 Social Network Analysis 226
8.4 Methodology 226
8.5 Heat Pump Water Heaters Bibliometrics Application 236
8.6 Overall Affiliation Ranking 2010-2021 238
8.7 Co-word Results 240
8.8 Interview Results 248
8.9 Conclusion and Discussion 250
References 250
9 Technology Intelligence: Burst Analysis for RFID in Hospitals 255
Haydar Yalçin
9.1 Introduction 255
9.2 Methodology 256
9.3 Data 257
9.4 Burst Analysis 257
9.5 Cluster Analysis 258
9.6 Conclusion 270
References 270
10 Technology Roadmapping: Data Science Roadmapping of Networked Organizations' Strategic Planning for Artificial Intelligence 273
Kerem Kayabay, Atilla Kilinç, Mert Onuralp Gökalp, Ebru Gökalp, and Tugrul U. Daim
10.1 Introduction 273
10.2 Literature Review 274
10.3 A Case Study of Networked Organizations' Strategic Planning for AI 281
10.4 Discussion 290
10.5 Conclusion 291
References 292
11 Technology Roadmapping: Nano Technology in Construction in Saudi Arabia 301
Ashfaq AlKhalil and Tugrul U. Daim
11.1 Introduction 301
11.2 Research Methodology 303
11.3 Background of Nanotechnology 304
11.4 Nanoarchitecture: Definition and Its Applications 307
11.5 Building Sector and Sustainable Development Issues 311
11.6 Using Nanomaterials in the Production of Concrete-based Composites 313
11.7 Nanoarchitecture Application in Saudi Arabia 318
11.8 Technology Road Mapping for Green Architecture 320
11.9 Conclusion and Future Work 336
References 337
12 Technology Roadmapping: Standards of Healthcare Data Cybersecurity 343
Alison Nalven, Courtney Wright, Jennifer L. Zeitouni, Nolan Thompson, Sara Ferdousi, and Saumya Saxena
12.1 Introduction 343
12.2 Methodology 344
12.3 Literature Review 345
12.4 Results 347
12.5 Conclusion and Limitations 366
References 367
13 Technology Roadmapping: Monitoring the Status of a Technology Roadmap with Data-driven Roadmapping Approach 371
Nathasit Gerdsri, Ummaraporn Pora, Sudatip Puengrusme, and Ronald Vatananan
13.1 Introduction 371
13.2 Literature Review 372
13.3 Monitoring the Status of a Roadmap with Data-driven Roadmapping Approach 390
13.4 The Development of Integrative Restaurant Services and Intelligent Management Published in IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management (Pora et al. 2022) 394
13.5 Conclusion 396
References 397
1
Technology Assessment: Smart City Development Initiatives and Issues
Nagendra K. Sharma1, Vimal Kumar2, Pratima Verma3, Tugrul U. Daim4, Haydar Yalçın5, and Kuei-Kuei Lai6
1Department of Management Studies, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun 248002, India
2Department of Information Management, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taichung 41349, Taiwan
3Department of Strategic Management, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode, Kozhikode 673570, India
4Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity and Cyber Defense Policy Center, Department of Engineering and Technology Management, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97201, USA
5Department of Business Administration, Ege University, Izmir 35800, Turkey
6Department of Business Administration, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taichung 41349, Taiwan
1.1 Introduction
"A smart city is a city well performing built on the 'smart' combination of endowments and activities of self-decisive, independent, and aware citizens" (Giffinger et al. 2007). Urban population concentration and other environmental challenges are among the key antecedents to the concept of smart cities around the world. Traditional cities are not adequately structured to provide a good quality of life for people in today's fast-moving world. The smart cities concept came into the picture with the advent of high-end technologies and corresponding new policies that make it possible to live smartly (Letaifa 2015).
We are facing several kinds of challenges because of population growth in the old cities, which is straining limited, basic resources for their residents. Therefore, a new planning program must be implemented so that cities can be a better place to live. The challenges are compounded because people continue to migrate to urban areas for employment and a better standard of living. Urban jobs and infrastructure attract people looking for a better quality of life. The United Nations (UN) predicts that by 2050 there may be 6.5 billion people living in cities (Streitz 2015).
In some ways, they find this better lifestyle in the cities. However, migration is putting much pressure on the urban established cities and their systems and is not likely to stop in the near future (Okai et al. 2018). The proposal of smart cities is therefore widely accepted as a way to deal with such challenges. Cities play a crucial role in building socioeconomic and ecological counterparts around the world.
Because of the expected and current population growth, cities are suffering from various kinds of challenges as the available resources and the built infrastructure are limited and are under pressure. Thus, there is an urgent need to develop new infrastructure that can have a problem-solving approach to these challenges in the cities. Smart cities offer the hope that everyone can survive in a better way with the use of technology and engineering. For a city to be called a smart city, the smart city (SC) projects require several important criteria to be met: smart mobility, safety and security of the people, smart healthcare system, clean water and air, major dependencies on renewable energy systems, prompt disaster response system, economic development, and higher social and cultural values among people (Kosowatz 2020). Innovative technological solutions will be needed to develop all these factors for smart cities - solutions that can be easily adopted and fixed in the current or a new system.
Figure 1.1 shows several key components of smart cities. Smart cities implement technologies to become smart and it leads to better quality of life, economic development, a traffic management system for a robust supply chain in the city, and an effective health care system in the city with a proper network of emergency vehicles and ambulances. Beyond the listed factors, an effective communication system is necessary for appropriate information travel among the public and authorities (Ismagilova et al. 2019). Understanding the importance of smart cities and their development requires understanding the main priorities identified in the researchers' smart city concept agendas (Camero and Alba 2019). These researchers are adding knowledge in all the SC areas, such as architecture and planning, civil engineering, information technology, management, policy, and governance.
Figure 1.1 Components of smart city.
Source: Developed by Authors.
In recent studies, it was found that SC development is greatly strengthened with the latest technological developments. The challenges in the cities can be minimized with the appropriate utilization of technologies. Information communication technology (ICT), artificial intelligence (AI), the internet of things (IoT), deep learning, machine learning, neural networking, cognitive computing, and big data analytics are some of the promising technologies used in the development of the smart city projects around the world. The engagement of these technologies is aimed to convert the conventional systems of the city into the autonomous system (Ahad et al. 2020). Inclusion of high-end technologies makes the entire system of the city smart work, such as smart mobility, which connects the vehicles on board to the traffic system and users can easily understand the traffic situation in the real-time. Smart mobility can also reduce fatalities that result when people injured in traffic accidents cannot get immediate treatment. In this case, smart mobility can be helpful for running ambulances or emergency vehicles with the help of an automatic traffics system linked with these vehicles. Real-time monitoring systems and global positioning systems (GPS) showing hospitals and clinics to the users are some of the smart systems that can save lives. These examples confirm how important the smart city project is for every nation in the world and the significance of the innovation agendas of the government, research agencies, and technology partners toward the development and implementation of smart technologies in the cities (Okai et al. 2018). In today's context, many cities are interested in transforming into smart cities for achieving developmental goals, although the journey is full of challenges and complexities as it includes lots of planning with a public-private partnership (PPP) approach, experts with ICT, government support, and significant funding (Lai et al. 2020; Razmjoo et al. 2021).
This chapter focuses on the technological issues in the development of smart cities around the world and technological engagement in the development process. The major objective is to highlight smart city initiatives adopted by the cities and technology engagement for the same. Another task is to find the issues that are linked to technological aspects. These objectives are important to achieve because it helps in understanding the complexities of adopting the high-end technologies by the countries for smart city development projects. Studies show that most SC projects fail to achieve success because of poor technology adoption or affordability. Hence, this chapter endeavors to highlight these issues with appropriate possible solutions for the successful development of smart cities. This chapter may be helpful for the decision-makers who are engaged with smart city development projects and for researchers who may use this research for exploring future research opportunities.
1.2 Evolution of the Smart City
Urbanization has accelerated the evolution of smart cities. According to De Marco and Mangano (2021), it is expected that by 2050, approximately 66% of the global population will be living in urban areas. The term smart city has gained traction around the world, influencing urban development plans and government policies (Berry 2018). Overpopulation of smart cities also has many space challenges. The challenges are traffic congestion, waste management, pollution, and parking allocation - but opportunities exist to solve these problems. One of the biggest challenges or problems is traditional safety and security infrastructure that arises from rapid urbanization (Isafiade and Bagula 2017).
There is no widely accepted definition of the smart city. It varies according to perspective. The SC concept arose a few years ago as a collection of "ideas on how information and communication technology might improve city functioning" (Camero and Alba 2019). In other words, a smart city is a sustainable city that uses fourth-industrial-revolution technology and stakeholder governance to solve urban challenges and improve inhabitants' quality of life (Myeong et al. 2022). Smart cities are also known by different names: Digital City (Ishida 2002); Eco-City (Register 1987); Green City (OECD 2013); Intelligent City (Komninos 2006); Knowledge City (Edvinsson 2006); Sustainable City (Haughton and Hunter 1994); and Wired City (Dutton et al. 1987).
1.3 Need for Smart Cities
The increasing burden of population on the planet and certain other types of environmental challenges led by overexploitation of the limited resources made the cities a poor place to live. The basic utilities such as getting safe drinking water are even a challenge for the common public, especially in...
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