
Marketing Analytics
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Content
- Cover
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Contents
- Introduction
- Part I Using Excel to Summarize Marketing Data
- Chapter 1 Slicing and Dicing Marketing Data with PivotTables
- Analyzing Sales at True Colors Hardware
- Analyzing Sales at La Petit Bakery
- Analyzing How Demographics Affect Sales
- Pulling Data from a PivotTable with the GETPIVOTDATA Function
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 2 Using Excel Charts to Summarize Marketing Data
- Combination Charts
- Using a PivotChart to Summarize Market Research Surveys
- Ensuring Charts Update Automatically When New Data is Added
- Making Chart Labels Dynamic
- Summarizing Monthly Sales-Force Rankings
- Using Check Boxes to Control Data in a Chart
- Using Sparklines to Summarize Multiple Data Series
- Using GETPIVOTDATA to Create the End-of-Week Sales Report
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 3 Using Excel Functions to Summarize Marketing Data
- Summarizing Data with a Histogram
- Using Statistical Functions to Summarize Marketing Data
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part II Pricing
- Chapter 4 Estimating Demand Curves and Using Solver to Optimize Price
- Estimating Linear and Power Demand Curves
- Using the Excel Solver to Optimize Price
- Pricing Using Subjectively Estimated Demand Curves
- Using SolverTable to Price Multiple Products
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 5 Price Bundling
- Why Bundle?
- Using Evolutionary Solver to Find Optimal Bundle Prices
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 6 Nonlinear Pricing
- Demand Curves and Willingness to Pay
- Profit Maximizing with Nonlinear Pricing Strategies
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 7 Price Skimming and Sales
- Dropping Prices Over Time
- Why Have Sales?
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 8 Revenue Management
- Estimating Demand for the Bates Motel and Segmenting Customers
- Handling Uncertainty
- Markdown Pricing
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part III Forecasting
- Chapter 9 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation
- Simple Linear Regression
- Using Correlations to Summarize Linear Relationships
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 10 Using Multiple Regression to Forecast Sales
- Introducing Multiple Linear Regression
- Running a Regression with the Data Analysis Add-In
- Interpreting the Regression Output
- Using Qualitative Independent Variables in Regression
- Modeling Interactions and Nonlinearities
- Testing Validity of Regression Assumptions
- Multicollinearity
- Validation of a Regression
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 11 Forecasting in the Presence of Special Events
- Building the Basic Model
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 12 Modeling Trend and Seasonality
- Using Moving Averages to Smooth Data and Eliminate Seasonality
- An Additive Model with Trends and Seasonality
- A Multiplicative Model with Trend and Seasonality
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 13 Ratio to Moving Average Forecasting Method
- Using the Ratio to Moving Average Method
- Applying the Ratio to Moving Average Method to Monthly Data
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 14 Winter's Method
- Parameter Definitions for Winter's Method
- Initializing Winter's Method
- Estimating the Smoothing Constants
- Forecasting Future Months
- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 15 Using Neural Networks to Forecast Sales
- Regression and Neural Nets
- Using Neural Networks
- Using NeuralTools to Predict Sales
- Using NeuralTools to Forecast Airline Miles
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part IV What do Customers Want?
- Chapter 16 Conjoint Analysis
- Products, Attributes, and Levels
- Full Profile Conjoint Analysis
- Using Evolutionary Solver to Generate Product Profiles
- Developing a Conjoint Simulator
- Examining Other Forms of Conjoint Analysis
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 17 Logistic Regression
- Why Logistic Regression Is Necessary
- Logistic Regression Model
- Maximum Likelihood Estimate of Logistic Regression Model
- Using StatTools to Estimate and Test Logistic Regression Hypotheses
- Performing a Logistic Regression with Count Data
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 18 Discrete Choice Analysis
- Random Utility Theory
- Discrete Choice Analysis of Chocolate Preferences
- Incorporating Price and Brand Equity into Discrete Choice Analysis
- Dynamic Discrete Choice
- Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) Assumption
- Discrete Choice and Price Elasticity
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part V Customer Value
- Chapter 19 Calculating Lifetime Customer Value
- Basic Customer Value Template
- Measuring Sensitivity Analysis with Two-way Tables
- An Explicit Formula for the Multiplier
- Varying Margins
- DIRECTV, Customer Value, and Friday Night Lights (FNL)
- Estimating the Chance a Customer Is Still Active
- Going Beyond the Basic Customer Lifetime Value Model
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 20 Using Customer Value to Value a Business
- A Primer on Valuation
- Using Customer Value to Value a Business
- Measuring Sensitivity Analysis with a One-way Table
- Using Customer Value to Estimate a Firm's Market Value
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 21 Customer Value, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Marketing Decision Making
- A Markov Chain Model of Customer Value
- Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Success of a Marketing Initiative
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 22 Allocating Marketing Resources between Customer Acquisition and Retention
- Modeling the Relationship between Spending and Customer Acquisition and Retention
- Basic Model for Optimizing Retention and Acquisition Spending
- An Improvement in the Basic Model
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part VI Market Segmentation
- Chapter 23 Cluster Analysis
- Clustering U.S. Cities
- Using Conjoint Analysis to Segment a Market
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 24 Collaborative Filtering
- User-Based Collaborative Filtering
- Item-Based Filtering
- Comparing Item- and User-Based Collaborative Filtering
- The Netflix Competition
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 25 Using Classification Trees for Segmentation
- Introducing Decision Trees
- Constructing a Decision Tree
- Pruning Trees and CART
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part VII Forecasting New Product Sales
- Chapter 26 Using S Curves to Forecast Sales of a New Product
- Examining S Curves
- Fitting the Pearl or Logistic Curve
- Fitting an S Curve with Seasonality
- Fitting the Gompertz Curve
- Pearl Curve versus Gompertz Curve
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 27 The Bass Diffusion Model
- Introducing the Bass Model
- Estimating the Bass Model
- Using the Bass Model to Forecast New Product Sales
- Deflating Intentions Data
- Using the Bass Model to Simulate Sales of a New Product
- Modifications of the Bass Model
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 28 Using the Copernican Principle to Predict Duration of Future Sales
- Using the Copernican Principle
- Simulating Remaining Life of Product
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part VIII Retailing
- Chapter 29 Market Basket Analysis and Lift
- Computing Lift for Two Products
- Computing Three-Way Lifts
- A Data Mining Legend Debunked!
- Using Lift to Optimize Store Layout
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 30 RFM Analysis and Optimizing Direct Mail Campaigns
- RFM Analysis
- An RFM Success Story
- Using the Evolutionary Solver to Optimize a Direct Mail Campaign
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 31 Using the SCAN*PRO Model and Its Variants
- Introducing the SCAN*PRO Model
- Modeling Sales of Snickers Bars
- Forecasting Software Sales
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 32 Allocating Retail Space and Sales Resources
- Identifying the Sales to Marketing Effort Relationship
- Modeling the Marketing Response to Sales Force Effort
- Optimizing Allocation of Sales Effort
- Using the Gompertz Curve to Allocate Supermarket Shelf Space
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 33 Forecasting Sales from Few Data Points
- Predicting Movie Revenues
- Modifying the Model to Improve Forecast Accuracy
- Using 3 Weeks of Revenue to Forecast Movie Revenues
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part IX Advertising
- Chapter 34 Measuring the Effectiveness of Advertising
- The Adstock Model
- Another Model for Estimating Ad Effectiveness
- Optimizing Advertising: Pulsing versus Continuous Spending
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 35 Media Selection Models
- A Linear Media Allocation Model
- Quantity Discounts
- A Monte Carlo Media Allocation Simulation
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 36 Pay per Click (PPC) Online Advertising
- Defining Pay per Click Advertising
- Profitability Model for PPC Advertising
- Google AdWords Auction
- Using Bid Simulator to Optimize Your Bid
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part X Marketing Research Tools
- Chapter 37 Principal Components Analysis (PCA)
- Defining PCA
- Linear Combinations, Variances, and Covariances
- Diving into Principal Components Analysis
- Other Applications of PCA
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 38 Multidimensional Scaling (MDS)
- Similarity Data
- MDS Analysis of U.S. City Distances
- MDS Analysis of Breakfast Foods
- Finding a Consumer's Ideal Point
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 39 Classification Algorithms: Naive Bayes Classifier and Discriminant Analysis
- Conditional Probability
- Bayes' Theorem
- Naive Bayes Classifier
- Linear Discriminant Analysis
- Model Validation
- The Surprising Virtues of Naive Bayes
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 40 Analysis of Variance: One-way ANOVA
- Testing Whether Group Means Are Different
- Example of One-way ANOVA
- The Role of Variance in ANOVA
- Forecasting with One-way ANOVA
- Contrasts
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 41 Analysis of Variance: Two-way ANOVA
- Introducing Two-way ANOVA
- Two-way ANOVA without Replication
- Two-way ANOVA with Replication
- Summary
- Exercises
- Part XI Internet and Social Marketing
- Chapter 42 Networks
- Measuring the Importance of a Node
- Measuring the Importance of a Link
- Summarizing Network Structure
- Random and Regular Networks
- The Rich Get Richer
- Klout Score
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 43 The Mathematics Behind The Tipping Point
- Network Contagion
- A Bass Version of the Tipping Point
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 44 Viral Marketing
- Watts' Model
- A More Complex Viral Marketing Model
- Summary
- Exercises
- Chapter 45 Text Mining
- Text Mining Definitions
- Giving Structure to Unstructured Text
- Applying Text Mining in Real Life Scenarios
- Summary
- Exercises
- Index
Chapter 1
Slicing and Dicing Marketing Data with PivotTables
In many marketing situations you need to analyze, or “slice and dice,” your data to gain important marketing insights. Excel PivotTables enable you to quickly summarize and describe your data in many different ways. In this chapter you learn how to use PivotTables to perform the following:
- Examine sales volume and percentage by store, month and product type.
- Analyze the influence of weekday, seasonality, and the overall trend on sales at your favorite bakery.
- Investigate the effect of marketing promotions on sales at your favorite bakery.
- Determine the influence that demographics such as age, income, gender and geographic location have on the likelihood that a person will subscribe to ESPN: The Magazine.
Analyzing Sales at True Colors Hardware
To start analyzing sales you first need some data to work with. The data worksheet from the PARETO.xlsx file (available for download on the companion website) contains sales data from two local hardware stores (uptown store owned by Billy Joel and downtown store owned by Petula Clark). Each store sells 10 types of tape, 10 types of adhesive, and 10 types of safety equipment. Figure 1.1 shows a sample of this data.
Figure 1-1: Hardware store data
Throughout this section you will learn to analyze this data using Excel PivotTables to answer the following questions:
- What percentage of sales occurs at each store?
- What percentage of sales occurs during each month?
- How much revenue does each product generate?
- Which products generate 80 percent of the revenue?
Calculating the Percentage of Sales at Each Store
The first step in creating a PivotTable is ensuring you have headings in the first row of your data. Notice that Row 7 of the example data in the data worksheet has the headings Product, Month, Store, and Price. Because these are in place, you can begin creating your PivotTable. To do so, perform the following steps:
1. Place your cursor anywhere in the data cells on the data worksheet, and then click PivotTable in the Tables group on the Insert tab. Excel opens the Create PivotTable dialog box, as shown in Figure 1.2, and correctly guesses that the data is included in the range Y7:AB1333.Figure 1-2: PivotTable Dialog Box
NOTE If you select Use an External Data Source here, you could also refer to a database as a source for a PivotTable. In Exercise 14 at the end of the chapter you can practice creating PivotTables from data in different worksheets or even different workbooks. 2. Click OK and you see the PivotTable Field List, as shown in Figure 1.3.Figure 1-3: PivotTable Field List
3. Fill in the PivotTable Field List by dragging the PivotTable headings or fields into the boxes or zones. You can choose from the following four zones:- Row Labels: Fields dragged here are listed on the left side of the table in the order in which they are added to the box. In the current example, the Store field should be dragged to the Row Labels box so that data can be summarized by store.
- Column Labels: Fields dragged here have their values listed across the top row of the PivotTable. In the current example no fields exist in the Column Labels zone.
- Values: Fields dragged here are summarized mathematically in the PivotTable. The Price field should be dragged to this zone. Excel tries to guess the type of calculation you want to perform on a field. In this example Excel guesses that you want all Prices to be summed. Because you want to compute total revenue, this is correct. If you want to change the method of calculation for a data field to an average, a count, or something else, simply double-click the data field or choose Value Field Settings. You learn how to use the Value Fields Setting command later in this section.
- Report Filter: Beginning in Excel 2007, Report Filter is the new name for the Page Field area. For fields dragged to the Report Filter zone, you can easily pick any subset of the field values so that the PivotTable shows calculations based only on that subset. In Excel 2010 or Excel 2013 you can use the exciting Slicers to select the subset of fields used in PivotTable calculations. The use of the Report Filter and Slicers is shown in the “Report Filter and Slicers” section of this chapter.
Figure 1.4 shows the completed PivotTable Field List and the resulting PivotTable is shown in Figure 1.5 as well as on the FirstorePT worksheet.
Figure 1-4: Completed PivotTable Field List
Figure 1-5: Completed PivotTable
Figure 1.5 shows the downtown store sold $4,985.50 worth of goods, and the uptown store sold $4,606.50 of goods. The total sales are $9592.
If you want a percentage breakdown of the sales by store, you need to change the way Excel displays data in the Values zone. To do this, perform these steps:
1. Right-click in the summarized data in the FirstStorePT worksheet and select Value Field Settings. 2. Select Show Values As and click the drop-down arrow on the right side of the dialog box. 3. Select the % of Column Total option, as shown in Figure 1.6.Figure 1-6: Obtaining percentage breakdown by Store
Figure 1.7 shows the resulting PivotTable with the new percentage breakdown by Store with 52 percent of the sales in the downtown store and 48 percent in the uptown store. You can also see this in the revenue by store worksheet of the PARETO.xlsx file.
Figure 1-7: Percentage breakdown by Store
NOTE If you want a PivotTable to incorporate a different set of data, then under Options, you can select Change Data Source and select the new source data. To have a PivotTable incorporate changes in the original source data, simply right-click and select Refresh. If you are going to add new data below the original data and you want the PivotTable to include the new data when you select Refresh, you should use the Excel Table feature discussed in Chapter 2, “Using Excel Charts to Summarize Marketing Data.”Summarizing Revenue by Month
You can also use a PivotTable to break down the total revenue by month and calculate the percentage of sales that occur during each month. To accomplish this, perform the following steps:
1. Return to the data worksheet and bring up the PivotTable Field List by choosing Insert PivotTable. 2. Drag the Month field to the Row Labels zone and the Price field to the Values zone. This gives the total sales by month. Because you also want a percentage breakdown of sales by month, drag the Price field again to the Values zone. 3. As shown in Figure 1.8, right-click on the first column in the Values zone and choose Value Field Settings; then choose the % of Column Total option. You now see the percentage monthly breakdown of revenue.Figure 1-8: Monthly percentage breakdown of Revenue
4. Double-click the Column headings and change them to Percentage of Sales by Month and Total Revenue. 5. Finally, double-click again the Total Revenue Column; select Number Format, and choose the Currency option so the revenue is formatted in dollars.You can see that $845 worth of goods was sold in January and 8.81 percent of the sales were in January. Because the percentage of sales in each month is approximately 1/12 (8.33 percent), the stores exhibit little seasonality. Part III, “Forecasting Sales of Existing Products,” includes an extensive discussion of how to estimate seasonality and the importance of seasonality in marketing analytics.
Calculating Revenue for Each Product
Another important part of analyzing data includes determining the revenue generated by each product. To determine this for the example data, perform the following steps:
1. Return to the data worksheet and drag the Product field to the Row Labels zone and the Price field to the Values zone. 2. Double-click on the Price column, change the name of the Price column to Revenue, and then reformat the Revenue Column as Currency. 3. Click the drop-down arrow in cell A3 and select Sort A to Z so you can alphabetize the product list and obtain the PivotTable in the products worksheet, as shown in Figure 1.9.Figure 1-9: Sales by Product
You can now see the revenue that each product generated individually. For example, Adhesive 1 generated $24 worth of revenue.
The Pareto 80–20 Principle
When slicing and dicing data you may encounter a situation in which you want to find which set of products generates a certain percentage of total sales. The well-known Pareto...
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