Global Dynamics
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Alan Wilson, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, UK. His research interests have been concerned with many aspects of mathematical modelling and the use of models in planning in relation to all aspects of cities and regions - including demography, economic input-output modelling, transport and locational structures. He was responsible for the introduction of a number of model building techniques which are now in common use internationally. These models have been widely used in areas such as transport planning. He made important contributions through the rigorous deployment of accounts' concepts in demography and economic modelling. In recent years he has been particularly concerned with applications of dynamical systems theory in relation to the task of modelling the evolution of urban structure - initially described in Catastrophe theory and bifurcation: applications to urban and regional systems. His current research, supported by ESRC and EPSRC grants of around ?3M, is on the evolution of cities and the dynamics of global trade and migration.
Content
Notes on Contributors xiii
Acknowledgements xvii
Part I GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND THE TOOLS OF COMPLEXITY SCIENCE
1 Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science 3
Alan Wilson
Reference 7
Part II TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
2 The Global Trade System and Its Evolution 11
Simone Caschili and Francesca Medda
2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports' System 11
2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network 12
2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective 15
2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective 20
References 21
Appendix 23
A.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics 23
A.1.1 Four Properties 24
A.1.2 Three Mechanisms 25
3 An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade 26
Simone Caschili, Francesca Medda, and Alan Wilson
3.1 Introduction 26
3.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration 27
3.3 Model Layers 30
3.3.1 Economic Layer 30
3.3.2 Social and Cultural Layer (Socio-cultural) 33
3.3.3 Physical Layer 34
3.4 The Workings of the Model 34
3.5 Model Calibration 35
3.6 Result 1: Steady State 39
3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM 42
3.8 Discussion and Conclusions 48
References 48
4 A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input-Output Models 51
Robert G. Levy, Thomas P. Oléron Evans, and Alan Wilson
4.1 Introduction 51
4.2 Existing Global Economic Models 52
4.3 Description of the Model 53
4.3.1 Outline 53
4.3.2 Introduction to Input-Output Tables 53
4.3.3 A Single Country Model 55
4.3.4 An International Trade Model 57
4.3.5 Setting Model Coefficients from Data 58
4.4 Solving the Model 58
4.4.1 The Leontief Equation 58
4.4.2 The Drawbacks of Mathematical Elegance 59
4.4.3 Algorithm for an Iterative Solution 59
4.5 Analysis 61
4.5.1 Introduction 61
4.5.2 Simple Modelling Approaches 61
4.5.3 A Unified Network Approach 64
4.5.4 Comparison with a Multi-region Input-Output Model 67
4.6 Conclusions 67
Acknowledgements 69
References 69
Appendix 71
A.1 Modelling the 'Rest of the World' 71
A.2 Services Trade Data 71
A.2.1 Importing Own Exports 72
A.2.2 The Rest of the World for Sectors 72
Part III MIGRATION
5 Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres 75
Adam Dennett and Pablo Mateos
5.1 Introduction 75
5.2 Policy and Migration Research 76
5.2.1 Key Policy Issues in Contemporary Migration Research 76
5.2.2 Linking Policy Issues to Modelling Challenges 81
5.2.3 Policy-related Research Questions for Modellers 82
5.2.4 Other International Migration Modelling Research 83
5.3 Conclusion 84
References 84
Appendix 87
A.1 United Kingdom 87
A.2 Rest of Europe 90
A.3 Rest of the World 94
6 Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe 97
Adam Dennett and Alan Wilson
6.1 Introduction 97
6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge 98
6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology 100
6.3.1 Model (i) 104
6.3.2 Model (ii) 105
6.3.3 Model (iii) 105
6.3.4 Model (iv) 108
6.3.5 Model (v) 109
6.3.6 Model (vi) 110
6.4 Model Parameter Calibration 110
6.5 Model Experiments 113
6.6 Results 118
6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe 121
References 123
7 Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows - An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data 125
Adam Dennett
7.1 Introduction 125
7.2 Methodology 129
7.2.1 Introduction 129
7.2.2 Calculating Migration Probabilities 129
7.2.3 Calculating Total Migrants in the Global System 130
7.2.4 Generating a Consistent Time Series of Migration Probabilities 133
7.2.5 Producing Annual Bilateral Estimates 135
7.3 Results and Validation 135
7.3.1 Introduction 135
7.3.2 IMEM comparison 135
7.3.3 UN Flow Data Comparison 136
7.4 Discussion 138
7.5 Conclusions 140
References 140
Part IV SECURITY
8 Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat 145
Peter Baudains and Alan Wilson
8.1 Introduction 145
8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space-Time Patterning of Events 146
8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models 148
8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots 150
8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat 150
8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict 153
8.6.1 Threat in Models for Operational Decision-Making 153
8.6.2 Threat in a Model of Conflict Escalation 154
8.6.3 Threat in Modelling Global Military Expenditure 156
8.6.4 Summary 156
References 157
9 Riots 159
Peter Baudains
9.1 Introduction 159
9.2 The 2011 Riots in London 160
9.2.1 Space-Time Interaction 162
9.2.2 Journey to Crime 164
9.2.3 Characteristics of Rioters 165
9.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion 166
9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice 169
9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots 171
9.6 Discussion 172
References 173
10 Rebellions 175
Peter Baudains, Jyoti Belur, Alex Braithwaite, Elio Marchione and Shane D. Johnson
10.1 Introduction 175
10.2 Data 176
10.3 Hawkes model 177
10.4 Results 181
10.5 Discussion 183
References 185
11 Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy 187
Elio Marchione and Alan Wilson
11.1 The Model 187
11.2 The Test Case 188
11.3 Uses of the Model 189
Reference 191
Appendix 192
A.1 Volume Field of Type k Ship 192
A.2 Volume Field of Naval Units 193
A.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships 193
12 Space-Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq 195
Alex Braithwaite and Shane Johnson
12.1 Introduction 195
12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq 196
12.3 Counterinsurgency Data 200
12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space-Time Distributions 202
12.4.1 Introduction 202
12.4.2 Spatial Distribution 202
12.4.3 Temporal Distribution 203
12.4.4 Space-Time Distribution 203
12.4.5 Univariate Knox Analysis 206
12.4.6 Bivariate Knox Analysis 208
12.5 Concluding Comments 210
References 212
13 International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict 214
Janina Beiser
13.1 Introduction 214
13.2 Global Information Flows 216
13.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict 220
13.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression 225
13.5 Conclusion 226
References 226
Appendix 229
Part V AID AND DEVELOPMENT
14 International Development Aid: A Complex System 233
Belinda Wu
14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems' Perspective 233
14.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions 234
14.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System 235
14.3.1 Introduction 235
14.3.2 Non-linearity 235
14.3.3 Connectedness 237
14.3.4 Self-Adapting and Self-Organising 238
14.3.5 Emergence 238
14.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research 238
14.4.1 Organisations 238
14.4.2 The Range of Issues 239
14.4.3 Research Approaches 240
14.4.4 The Complexity Science Approach 242
14.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid 242
14.5.1 Whether Aid Can Be Effective 242
14.5.2 Complexity in the Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 244
14.5.3 Complexity in Methods/Standards of Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 245
14.5.4 Standardising Aid Effectiveness 246
14.6 Relationships and Interactions 248
14.6.1 Relationships between Donor and Recipient Countries 248
14.6.2 Relationships between Aid and Other Systems 249
14.7 Conclusions 251
References 252
15 Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid 257
Belinda Wu, Sean Hanna and Alan Wilson
15.1 Introduction 257
15.2 Data Collection 258
15.2.1 Introduction 258
15.2.2 Aid Data 258
15.2.3 Trade Data 260
15.2.4 Security Data 261
15.2.5 Migration Data 261
15.2.6 Geographical Data 261
15.2.7 Data Selected 262
15.3 Model Building 263
15.3.1 Modelling Approach 263
15.3.2 Alesina and Dollar Model 263
15.3.3 Our Models 264
15.3.4 Model B: Introducing Donor Interactions and Modification of the Model 267
15.3.5 Findings from Model B 267
15.3.6 Model C: Introducing Interactions with Trade System and Further Modification of the Model 267
15.3.7 Findings from Model C 268
15.4 Discussion and Future Work 268
References 269
16 Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective 271
Robert J. Downes and Steven R. Bishop
16.1 Aid Allocation Networks 271
16.1.1 Introduction 271
16.1.2 Why Networks? 272
16.1.3 Donor Motivation in Aid Allocation 273
16.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model 273
16.2.1 Overview of Approach 273
16.2.2 Basic Set-Up 274
16.2.3 The Network of Nations 275
16.2.4 Preference Functions 275
16.2.5 Specifying the Preference Functions 275
16.2.6 Recipient Selection by Donors 276
16.3 Application of the Model 277
16.3.1 Introduction 277
16.3.2 Scenario 1. No Feedback 277
16.3.3 Scenario 2. Bandwagon Feedback 281
16.3.4 Scenario 3. Aid Effectiveness Feedback 283
16.3.5 Aid Usage Mechanism 284
16.3.6 Application 286
16.3.7 Conclusions 287
16.4 Remarks 287
Acknowledgements 288
References 288
Appendix 290
A.1 Common Functional Definitions 290
Part VI GLOBAL DYNAMICS: AN INTEGRATED MODEL AND POLICY CHALLENGES
17 An Integrated Model 293
Robert G. Levy
17.1 Introduction 293
17.2 Adding Migration 294
17.2.1 Introduction 294
17.2.2 The Familiarity Effect 295
17.2.3 Consumption Similarity 301
17.2.4 Conclusions 304
17.3 Adding Aid 304
17.3.1 Introduction 304
17.3.2 Estimating 'Exportness' 305
17.3.3 Modelling Approach 306
17.3.4 Results 306
17.3.5 Conclusions 314
17.4 Adding Security 316
17.4.1 Introduction 316
17.4.2 Literature Review 316
17.4.3 Measures of Threat and the Global Dynamics Model 317
17.4.4 Trade during Changing Security Conditions 318
17.4.5 An Experiment of Increased Threat in the Global Dynamics Model 318
17.4.6 Conclusions 322
17.5 Concluding Comments 323
References 324
Index 327
Notes on Contributors
Peter Baudains is a Research Associate at the UCL Department of Security and Crime Science. He obtained his PhD in Mathematics from UCL in 2015 and worked for five years on the EPSRC-funded ENFOLDing project, contributing to a wide range of research projects. His research interests are in the development and application of novel analytical techniques for studying complex social systems, with a particular attention on crime, rioting and terrorism. He has authored research articles appearing in journals such as Criminology, Applied Geography, Policing and the European Journal of Applied Mathematics.
Janina Beiser obtained her PhD in the department of Political Science at University College London. During her PhD, she was part of the security workstream of the ENFOLDing project at the UCL's Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis for three years. Her research is concerned with the contagion of armed civil conflict as well as with government repression. She is now a Research Fellow in the Department of Government at the University of Essex.
Jyoti Belur is a Senior Research Associate and Senior Teaching Fellow. She served as a senior officer of the Indian Police Service for several years. Her experience and understanding of policing has contributed to her research interests in various aspects of policing, counter-terrorism, crime prevention in the United Kingdom and overseas. She has conducted research on a wide variety of topics including police use of deadly force, police investigations, police misconduct, policing left-wing extremism and crimes against women and has published a book titled Permission to Shoot? Police Use of Deadly Force in Democracies, as well as a number of journal articles and book chapters.
Steven Bishop is a Professor of Mathematics at UCL where he has been since arriving in 1984 as a post-doctoral researcher. He published over 150 academic papers, edited books and has had appearances on television and radio. Historically, his research investigated topics such as chaos theory, reducing vibrations of engineering structures and how sand dunes are formed, but has more recently worked on 'big data' and the modelling of social systems. Steven held a prestigious, 'Dream' Fellowship funded by the UK Research Council (EPSRC) until December 2013 allowing him to consider creative ways to arrive at scientific narratives. He was influential in the formation of a European network of physical and social scientists in order to investigate how decision-support systems can be developed to assist policy-makers and, to drive this, has organised conferences in the United Kingdom and European Parliaments. He has been involved in several European Commission funded projects and has helped to forge a research agenda which looks at behaviour of systems that cross policy domains and country borders.
Alex Braithwaite is an Associate Professor in the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Arizona, as well as a Senior Research Associate in the School of Public Policy at University College London. He obtained a PhD in Political Science from the Pennsylvania State University in 2006 and has since held academic positions at Colorado State University, UCL, and the University of Arizona. He was a Co-Investigator on the EPSRC-funded ENFOLDing project between 2010 and 2013, contributing to a wide range of projects under the 'security' umbrella. His research interests lie in the causes and geography of violent and nonviolent forms of political conflict and have been published in journals such as Journal of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, British Journal of Political Science, Journal of Peace Research, Criminology and Journal of Quantitative Criminology.
Simone Caschili has a PhD in Land Engineering and Urban Planning, and after being a Research Associate at Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (UCL) and Senior Fellow of the UCL QASER Lab, he is currently an Associate at LaSalle Investment Management, London. His research interest covers the modelling of urban and regional systems, property market, spatio-temporal and economic networks and policy evaluation for planning in both transport and environmental governance.
Adam Dennett is a Lecturer in Urban Analytics in the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London. He is a geographer and fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and has worked for a number of years in the broad area of population geography, applying quantitative techniques to the understanding of human populations; much of this involving the use of spatial interaction models to understand the migration flows of people around the United Kingdom, Europe and the world. A former secondary school teacher, Adam arrived at UCL in 2010 after completing a PhD at the University of Leeds.
Robert J. Downes is a MacArthur Fellow in Nuclear Security working at the Centre for Science and Security Studies at the Department of War Studies, King's College London. Trained as a mathematician, Rob received his PhD in mathematics from UCL in 2014; he studied the interplay between geometry and spectral theory with applications to physical systems and gravitation. He also holds an MSc in Mathematics with Theoretical Physics awarded by UCL. As a Postdoctoral Research Associate on the ENFOLDing project at The Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, Rob studied the structure and dynamics of global socio-economic systems using ideas from complexity science, with particular emphasis on national economic structure and development aid.
Shane Johnson is a Professor in the Department of Security and Crime Science at University College London. He has worked within the fields of criminology and forensic psychology for over 15 years and has particular interests in complex systems, patterns of crime and insurgent activity, event forecasting and design against crime. He has published over 100 articles and book chapters.
Rob Levy is a researcher at the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London. He has a background in quantitative economics, database administration, coding and visualisation. His first love was Visual Basic but now writes Python and Javascript, with some R when there is no way to avoid it.
Elio Marchione is a Consultant for Ab Initio Software Corporation. Elio was Research Associate at the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London (UK). He obtained his PhD at the University of Surrey (UK) at the Centre for Research in Social Simulation; MSc in Applied Mathematics at the University of Essex (UK); MEng at the University of Naples (ITA). His current role consists, among others, in designing and building scalable architectures addressing parallelism, data integration, data repositories and analytics while developing heavily parallel CPU-bound applications in a dynamic, high-volume environment. Elio's academic interests are in designing and/or modelling artificial societies or distributed intelligent systems enabled to produce novelty or emergent behaviour.
Francesca Romana Medda is a Professor in Applied Economics and Finance at University College London (UCL). She is the Director of the UCL QASER (Quantitative and Applied Spatial Economics Research) Laboratory. Her research focuses on project finance, financial engineering and risk evaluation in different infrastructure sectors such as the maritime industry, energy innovation and new technologies, urban investments (smart cities), supply chain provision and optimisation and airport efficiency.
Pablo Mateos is Associate Professor at the Centre for Research and Advanced Studies in Social Anthropology (CIESAS) in Guadalajara, México. He is honorary lecturer in the Department of Geography, University College London (UCL), in the United Kingdom where he was Lecturer in Human Geography from 2008 to 2012. At UCL, he was a member of the Migration Research Unit (MRU) and Research Fellow of the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM). His research focuses on ethnicity, migration and citizenship in the United Kingdom, Spain, the United States and Mexico. He has published over 40 articles and book chapters, and a book monograph titled Names, Ethnicity and Populations: Tracing Identity in Space published by Springer in 2014.
Thomas Oléron Evans is a Research Associate in the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London, where he has been working on the ENFOLDing project since 2011. In 2015, he completed a PhD in Mathematics, on the subject of individual-based modelling and game theory. He attained a Masters degree in Mathematics from Imperial College London in 2007, including one year studying at the École Normale Supérieure in Lyon, France. He is also an ambassador for the educational charity, Teach First, having spent two years teaching mathematics at Bow School in East London, gaining a Postgraduate Certificate in Education from Canterbury Christ Church University in 2010.
Alan Wilson FBA, FAcSS, FRS is Professor of Urban and Regional Systems in the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London. He is Chair of the Home Office Science Advisory Council and of the Lead Expert Group for the GO-Science Foresight Project on the Future of Cities. He was responsible for the introduction of a number of model building techniques which are now in common use - including 'entropy' in building spatial interaction models. His current research, supported by ESRC and EPSRC grants, is on the evolution of...
