Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
1st Edition
Published on 30. April 2009
344 pages
978-1-4008-3031-2 (ISBN)
Description
No detailed description available for "Expert Political Judgment".
More details
Edition
Course Book
Language
English
Place of publication
Princeton, NJ
Publishing group
De Gruyter
Target group
Professional and scholarly
Edition type
Digital original
Illustrations
39 line illus. 7 tables.
39 line illus. 7 tables.
File size
0,92 MB
ISBN-13
978-1-4008-3031-2 (9781400830312)
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Book
08/2006
Princeton University Press
€37.14
Article exhausted; check for reprint
Book
07/2005
Princeton University Press
€55.71
Article exhausted; check for reprint
Person
Tetlock Philip E.:
Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).
Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).
Content
Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273
Index 313
Preface xi
Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273
Index 313
