
Expert Political Judgment
Description
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Person
Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).
Content
Preface xi
Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273
Index 313
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