
Policy Stability and Economic Growth
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Content
- Intro
- The authors
- Foreword
- Acknowledgement
- Summary
- Tables and figures
- 1 Policy stability and economic growth: lessons from the Great Recession
- Introduction
- The Great Recession compared with earlier recessions
- The principles of good policy
- Monetary policy: to the Taylor rule and back
- Very unruly policy
- A return to rules-based policy
- References
- 2 Questions and discussion
- 3 Was failure to follow the Taylor rule enough to cause the crisis?
- A commentary on John Taylor's lecture
- Patrick Minford
- Evaluating John Taylor's particular thesis about the financial crisis
- Did the Taylor rule with inflation targeting fail during and before the crash?
- John Taylor's plea for a return to predictable rules of policy
- Conclusions
- References
- 4 The need for discretion and rules
- A commentary on John Taylor's lecture
- Andrew G. Haldane and Amar Radia
- Rules and discretion revisited
- Monetary policy rules in practice
- Concluding remarks
- References
- 5 A rejoinder
- John B. Taylor
- Reference
- About the IEA
- Figure?1 Great Recession and not-so-great recovery (US)
- Figure?2 Great Recession and not-so-great recovery (UK)
- Figure?3 US recession and recovery in early 1980s
- Figure?4 UK recession and recovery in early 1980s
- Figure?5 Growth rate in first eight quarters of a recovery from previous recessions with a financial crisis (identified by year recession began)
- Figure?6 Inflation from 1953 to 2013
- Figure?7 1965-80: monetary policy not well described by good rules-based policy
- Figure?8 Loose-fitting monetary policy
- Figure?9 Housing investment versus deviations from the Taylor rule in the euro zone countries, 2001-6
- Figure?10 Did the fiscal stimulus stimulate consumption?
- Figure?11 Debt to GDP ratio in the US
- Figure?12 Incidence of topics affecting inflation discussed by the MPC
- Figure?13 Incidence of topics linked to the labour market discussed by the MPC
- Figure?14 Distribution of inflation and growth outcomes relative to forecast
- Figure?15 Actual and Taylor rule paths for UK interest rates
- Figure?16 Taylor rule paths for UK interest rates with different judgements about the output gap
- Figure?17 Taylor rules for UK interest rates with different judgements about weight on output gap
- Figure?18 Taylor rules paths for interest rates with different judgements about r*
- Figure?19 Bank of England inflation forecasts
- Figure?20 Taylor rules paths for interest rates with different judgements about forward lookingness
- Figure?21 Range of possible Taylor rules based on different judgements
- Table?1 Simulated frequencies of crises with different monetary regimes
- Blank Page
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