Trade, Stability, Technology, and Equity in Latin America

List of ContributorsPrefaceIntroductionPart I International Trade Chapter 1 Exchange Rates and Terms of Trade in the Argentine Republic, 1913-1976 I. Real Exchange Rates Since 1913 II. Departures from PPP III. The Law of One Price References Chapter 2 The Terms of Trade, Real Output, and the Balance of Payments in a Primary Exporting Country: A Model and Some Estimates for Guatemala I. The Model II. The Case of Guatemala: Some General Considerations III. Empirical Results References Chapter 3 Dismantling Foreign Trade Restrictions: Some Evidence and Issues on the Argentine Case I. Introduction II. Nominal and Effective Protection III. An Exercise in Tariff Dismantling IV. On the Change in Relative Prices V. Summary and Conclusions References Chapter 4 Manufactured Exports, Labor Productivity, and Employment in Latin America: A Hypothesis Based on the Clothing Industry in Colombia I. Introduction II. Protection, Exports, and Labor Productivity III. Causes of the Rise and Fall of Colombia's Clothing Exports IV. Generalizing to Other Industries and Other Latin American Countries V. Conclusion ReferencesPart II External Instability Chapter 5 Old and New Forms of External Instability in Latin America: Sources, Mechanisms of Transmission, and Policies I. Introduction II. Sources of External Instability III. The Transmission of Instability IV. Policies for Stability: Some Issues for Research References Chapter 6 The Vulnerability of Small Semi-Industrialized Economies to Export Shocks: A Simulation Analysis Based on Peruvian Data I. The Small Semi-Industrialized Economy and Its Balance-of-Payments Adjustment Mechanism II. Multisectoral Models of Adjustment to Export Shortfalls III. Simulation Results for Peru IV. Policy Conclusions References Chapter 7 Latin American External Debt: The Case of Uncertain Development I. Introduction II. The Composition and Magnitude of the Debt III. The Rate of Return to External Borrowing IV. Projections of Latin American Financing Needs V. Conclusion ReferencesPart III Stabilization and Growth Chapter 8 Macroeconomic Disequilibrium and Short-Run Economic Growth in Developing Countries I. Introduction II. Possible Macroeconomic Adjustment Mechanism: IS Equilibrium III. Sample Estimates of the Saving and Investment Functions IV. Destabilizing IS Adjustment V. Closing the Model VI. Supplementary Macroeconomic Adjustment Mechanisms VII. Macroeconomic Adjustment and Short-Run Growth VIII. Concluding Remarks References Chapter 9 Investment, Inflation, and Employment: A Macroeconomic Framework I. Introduction II. Income and Wealth Accounts III. Equilibrium IV. Comparative Statics References Chapter 10 Inflation and Growth: Lessons from the Argentine Experience I. Introduction II. The Costs of Inflation III. Repressed Inflation IV. Inflation and Growth V. Free Inflation: The Road to Sustained Price Stability VI. Conclusions References Chapter 11 Economic Stabilization and Structural Change: The Chilean Economy after 1973 I. Macroeconomic Results II. The Stabilization Program and Its Phases III. Structural Changes IV. Conclusions ReferencesPart IV Technology Chapter 12 Fostering Technological Mastery by Means of Selective Infant-Industry Protection I. Introduction II. The Nature of Infant-Industry Costs and Benefits III. Conventional Prescriptions versus Actual Practice IV.