Systems Approach to Management of Disasters

Preface

I am one of the lucky few who have the opportunity to work all their professional life in an area that they enjoy. The most enjoyable activity for me is to integrate the knowledge from different fields into an approach for solving complex problems. My work has brought me into contact with many great people, responsible professionals, talented engineers, capable managers, and dedicated politicians. In my capacity as an academic I have also had an opportunity to work with the abundant young talent that continues to feed the workforce. I learned a lot from all these people. I learned many things about the profession, I learned a lot about different cultures, and most importantly, I learned about life. Thank you.

My interest in natural disasters as one would expect grew from my main area of expertise-water resources systems management. From early days of my professional carrier I was involved with floods and flood management, first from the engineering point of view and then later from the management point of view. Flood problems along Morava, Sava, and Danube rivers in my country of origin-Serbia-were among the first professional challenges I had to deal with, after graduation. In 1997, I was teaching at the University of Manitoba and living in Winnipeg. That was the year of the "Flood of the Century." The governments of Canada and the United States have agreed that steps must be taken to reduce the impact of future flooding on the Red River. In June 1997, they asked the International Joint Commission (IJC) to analyze the causes and effects of the Red River flood of that year. The IJC appointed the International Red River Basin Task Force to examine a range of alternatives to prevent or reduce future flood damage. I was appointed to the task force and the following experience changed my life.

My work has taken me all over the world. I have had an opportunity to see the water problems in the developed and developing world, in small villages and large urban centers. Projects I have been involved with range in scale from the local to the international. I have discussed the flooding issues with farmers of the Sihu area in China as well as the Minister for Irrigation and Water Resources of Egypt. I hope that my professional expertise continues to contribute to the solution of some of these problems. It definitely inspires me to continue to work with greater effort and more dedication.

For more than 30 years of personal research, consulting, teaching, involvement in policy, implementation of projects, and presentation of experiences through the pages of many professional journals, I have worked hard to raise the awareness of the~importance of interdisciplinary approach to the solution of complex problems. The main thrust of my work is the use of systems approach in dealing with complexity. I have accumulated tremendous experience over the years. In that time I realized that there is an opportunity to contribute to the area of disaster management by transferring some of the knowledge and experience from the implementation of the systems thinking and systems tools to various steps of the disaster management cycle. Writing this book offered me a moment of reflection, and it elaborates on lessons learned from the past to develop ideas for the future.

The main goal of this book is to introduce the systems approach to the disasters management community as an alternative approach that can provide support for interdisciplinary activities involved in the management of disasters. The systems approach draws on the fields of operations research and economics to create skills in solving complex management problems. The field of operations research evolved from its origins during the Second World War, and the area known as mathematical programming found wide application as a means to simulate and optimize complex design and operational problems in many fields (of natural, social and health sciences and engineering). A primary emphasis of systems analysis in disaster management as I see it is on providing an improved basis for decision making. A large number of~analytical, computer-based tools, from simulation and optimization to multiobjective analysis, are available for formulating, analyzing, and solving disaster management problems.

Large and more frequent disasters in last few decades have brought a remarkable transformation of attitude by the disaster management community toward integration of economic, social and environmental concerns related to disasters, and of action to deal with them.

The early period of hazards research was characterized by taking knowledge from various fields of science and engineering that is applicable to natural and related technological hazards and using it in disaster management. The most significant contribution in the last 10 years is a fundamental shift in the character of how the citizens, communities, governments, and businesses conduct themselves in relation to the natural environment they occupy. Pressures from a growing population and the associated needs for food production and rapid urbanization contribute to an exponential increase in human and material losses from natural and technological disasters.

Disaster management being divided among disciplinary boundaries has faced an uphill battle with the regulatory approaches that are used in many countries around the world. They have not been conducive to the integrative character of the systems approach that is inherent in simulation and optimization management models. Fortunately, recent trends in regulation include consideration of the entire region under threat, explicit consideration of all costs and benefits, elaboration of a large number of alternatives to reduce the damages, and the greater participation of all stakeholders in decision making. Systems approaches based on simulation, optimization, and multiobjective analyses have great potential for providing appropriate support for effective disaster management in this emerging context.

In 1987, with the publication of the Brundtland Commission's report Our Common Future, decision making in many fields began to be influenced by a sustainability paradigm. It can safely be assumed that sustainability is now the major unifying concept promoted, accepted, and discussed by governments throughout most of the world. The original report introduced the concept of sustainable development as "the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the needs of future generations". This concept as applied to contemporary hazards mitigation aims at implementing approaches that could result in disaster-resilient communities.

Applying the principles of sustainability to disaster decision making requires major changes in the objectives on which decisions are based, and an understanding of the complicated interrelationships between existing ecological, economic, and social factors. The broadest objectives for achieving sustainability are equity, economic efficiency, and environmental integrity. In addition, sustainable decision making regarding natural hazards faces the challenge of time; that is, it must identify and account for long-term consequences.

To make disaster management decisions designed to produce sustainable disaster-resilient, communities also calls for a change in procedural policies and implementation. If the choice is to select projects with this outcome, it will require major changes in both substantive and procedural policies. Sustainability is an integrating process. It encompasses technology, ecology, and the social and political infrastructure of society. It is not a state that may ever be reached completely. It is, however, one for which the disaster management community and decision makers strive.

The evolution of disaster management is occurring in the context of rapid technological change. In the same period that brought us the systems approach, environmental awareness, and sustainability, we were exposed to the dynamic development of computer hardware and software systems. The power of the large mainframe computers of the early 1970s is now exceeded many times over by the average laptop computer. The computer has moved out of data processing, through the user's office and into knowledge processing. Whether it takes the form of a laptop personal computer or a desktop multiprocessing workstation is not important. The important point is that the computer acts as a partner for more effective decision making.

Systems can be defined as a collection of various structural and nonstructural elements that are connected and organized in such a way as to achieve some specific objective through the control and distribution of material resources, energy, and information. The systems approach is a paradigm concerned with systems and interrelationships among their components. Today, more than ever, we face the need for appropriate tools that can assist in dealing with difficulties introduced by the increase in the complexity of disaster management problems, consideration of environmental impacts and the introduction of the principles of sustainability. The systems approach is one such tool. It uses rigorous methods to help determine the preferred plans and designs for complex, often large-scale systems. It combines knowledge of the available analytic tools, an understanding of when each is appropriate, and a skill in applying them to practical problems. It is both mathematical and intuitive, as is all disaster management cycle of hazard mitigation, preparation, emergency/event/crisis management, and recovery.

Despite many efforts, systems thinking is in a less secure position in the social sciences than it was 30 years ago. Many theorists still write it off as another version of...